The Red, the Green and the Blue: ................ Left Bloc / Right Bloc Monthly Poll Averages

Following on from the previous post, here are the Monthly Poll Averages (since April) for both (1) The Four Largest Parties and (2) The Left and Right Blocs.

You can see from Table (1) that Labour's monthly average has been falling since May - down 4 points (no surprises there - it's been keenly discussed in the MSM). The other side of the coin: National are up 4 points since April, although you'll notice their average has fallen slightly in August. Over recent weeks, there's been quite a bit of excitable talk throughout the Blogosphere and MSM about the way both the Greens and NZ First are supposedly beginning to take off like a sky rocket (chatter that started before the release of Nicky Hager's Dirty Politics). And yet from the relatively calm perspective of monthly averages (rather than all the giddy excitement as each new poll is released), the Greens are really just holding steady while NZ First are only slightly up on June/July and slightly down on April (albeit a crucial one point rise, given the 5% threshold).


     (1) Monthly Poll Averages           - Four Main Parties          
                      Labour      Green       National      NZ First     
   April            30             13                46                6           
   May             30             11                49                5           
  June             28             12                51                4           
  July              27             12                51                4           
  August         26             12                50                5           



      (2) Monthly Poll Averages          -  Left Bloc / Right Bloc    
                LabGreen    Left    Oppo        (1)Right   (2)Right
   April         43           45         51                47           49      
   May          41           42         47                51           53      
  June          40           42         46                52           54      
  July           39           41         45                53           54      
  August      38           41         45                51           54      


In Table (2):
 LabGreen = Combined Labour+Green support
 Left = Left Bloc (Labour+Green+IMP) support
 Oppo = Opposition Bloc (Left+NZ First) support
(1)Right = Right Bloc (excluding the Conservative Party) support
(2)Right = Right Bloc (including the Conservative Party) support

Unfortunately, it hasn't been a great 5 months for the Left and broader Opposition Blocs. Aggregate Labour+Green support is down 5 points since April, with Left and Opposition Bloc support down 4 points and 6 points respectively. Having said that, both the Left and Opposition Blocs have been holding steady over the last two months. At the other end of the spectrum, the Right Bloc rose sharply between April and July (up 5 points or 6 points depending on whether or not you exclude Colin Craig's Conservatives). But once again, there's a qualifier here: the Right Bloc (sans the Conservatives) has fallen 2 points since July (will Key be regretting his East Coast Bays decision ? - or does he still have a Conservative Party option up his sleeve ?).

Needs to be borne in mind, of course, that both National and the Right have a tendency to nose-dive close to the Election, with their Election-Day Party Vote well down on their poll averages of preceding months. I'll be comparing where we are now with poll averages from the same point in 2008 and 2011 in an up-coming post.

Left, Right / Left, Right / Left, Right....

Having set-out the poll-by-poll stats for the four largest Parties (see Overview post) and for the various minor parties (see Santa's Little Helpers post), it's probably well past time to do the same for Left Bloc/Right Bloc support (by far the most important dimension, of course, in an MMP environment).

If I find some spare time, I'll take the stats back to January, but, at the moment, the tables below cover just the last 5 months.

L+G = Labour+Green support
Left = Left Bloc (Lab+Green+IMP) support
Oppo = Left Bloc+NZ First support

Nat = National support
(1)Right = Right Bloc (excluding Conservative Party) support
(2)Right = Right Bloc (including Conservative Party) support




 April                 L+G    Left    Oppo        Nat   (1)Right   (2)Right
 Roy Morgan     40      42       48            49        50          52      
 Roy Morgan     46      48       54            43        45          45     


 May                      L+G   Left    Oppo       Nat   (1)Right  (2)Right
 Fairfax-Ipsos       42      43       46         48          51         52     
 Roy Morgan        44      46       52         46          47         48     
 Colmar-Brunton  41      42       47          51          53         54    
 Reid Research    40      41       46          50          51         54    
 Roy Morgan        38      39       44          53          55         56    
 

 June                    L+G    Left    Oppo        Nat   (1)Right  (2)Right
  Roy Morgan     40       43        47          50         51          53    
  Herald-Digi       41       43       46           50         52          54    
  Fairfax-Ipsos     35       37       40           57         58          59   
 Reid Research   40       42       45           50         52          54    
 Colmar-Brunton 41       43       47           50         52          53    
  Roy Morgan      40       43       48           48         51          52     


  July                    L+G    Left    Oppo        Nat   (1)Right  (2)Right
  Roy Morgan      39      40       46           51        53           54    
  Fairfax-Ipsos     37      39       41           55        56           57    
  Herald-Digi        36      39       43          55         55           57    
 Reid Research   39       41      46          49         51            54   
 Colmar-Brunton 38       40      44          52         54            55   
 Roy Morgan       42       45      50          46         49            50   


   August           L+G    Left    Oppo        Nat    (1)Right  (2)Right
  Fairfax-Ipsos     34      36        39          55          56          60          
   Reid Research 42      44        49          48          49          51    
  Colmar-Brunton37      41        46          50          52          54    
  Roy Morgan      39      42        48          48          50          51    
  Herald-Digi        39      41        45          50          52          54    
 Reid Research   40      42        48          45          46          51     
  Herald-Digi        36      39        44          51          52          56    
 Fairfax-Ipsos       38      40        44          51          52          55    
 Colmar-Brunton  40      42        48          48          49          52    
  Roy Morgan       42      43        49          45          47          50    
 Reid Research    39      40        46          46          49          53    




  September           L+G   Left   Oppo         Nat   (1)Right   (2)Right 
  Fairfax-Ipsos      37      39      42           54         55            57     
  Herald-Digi        35       39      45           50         51            55    
 Colmar-Brunton  37       39      46           50         50            53    
 Reid Research    39       41      47           47         48            53    
 Colmar Brunton  39       40       47          46         48            52    
  Herald-Digi        36        38      47           49         50            53     

Dirty Politics: One News Colmar-Brunton Snap Poll

[UPDATE: Fairfax-Ipsos Poll added at bottom of post]

 One News Colmar-Brunton         Snap Poll on Dirty Politics                 
 509 Respondents                            August 14-15                                                    
 Q 1:  "Have you heard of Nicky Hager's latest book called Dirty Politics which was released on Wednesday ?"                                                        
 Entire Sample             Yes 77%            No 23%                                        
 High Yes    - Those aged 35+  89%       - NZ Europeans  87%                  
 Low Yes     - Those aged 18-34 46%           - Auckland Residents 68%                         - Labour Supporters 68%                                                         

 Q 2:  "His book suggests smear campaigns and leaks were organised at the highest levels of the National Party including the Prime Minister's Office.  Do you believe these  suggestions ?"                                        
 Entire Sample             Yes 28%       No 43%        Don't Know 29%            
 National Supporters    Yes 10%      No 68%         Don't Know 23%           
 High Yes - Christchurch Residents 45%    - Labour and Green Supporters    43%                                                                                                            
 High No   - National Supporters 68%                                                          

 Q 3:  "Have these allegations  positively or negatively influenced your    view of the National Party or have they not made  much difference ?"    
 Entire Sample     Positively 4%   Negatively 9%   Not Much Diff 82%     Don't Know 5%                                                                                           
 National Supporters    Positively 5%    Negatively 2%    Not Much Diff   91%    Don't Know 3%                                                                                
 High Negative              - Labour and Green Supporters 19%                     
 High Not Much Diff    - National Supporters 91%                                     

 Q 4:  "As a result of these allegations are you now more or less likely to vote on Election Day or have they not made much difference ?"             
 Entire Sample     More Likely 12%    Less Likely 1%    Not much diff    87%                                                                                                            
 High More Likely    - Labour Supporters 19%                                         
 Note: Colmar-Brunton only highlight sub-group demographics that         diverge from the average to a statistically significant extent                      All other demographics will be close to the Entire Sample Percentages     








        Fairfax-Ipsos Poll on Dirty Politics                                                  
        1002 Respondents                       August 21-27                                  
 Q 1: "Investigative journalist Nicky Hager has recently published a book that focuses on the past 6 years of Prime Minister John Key's Government titled 'Dirty Politics'. In your eyes, do you think John Key's reputation has been damaged by the book's claims ?"                                                         
 Entire Sample          Yes  47%       No 43%          Don't Know 11%            


 Q 2: "Do you think the claims made in the book 'Dirty Politics' and what has been reported in the media these last few  days will change your vote in the upcoming NZ election ?"                                                                   
  Entire Sample           Yes 8%       No 87%        Don't Know 5%               

  Q 3: "Do you believe that all politicians 'play dirty' as it's all just part of the politics and being a politician in NZ ?"                                                  
  Entire Sample         Yes 55%       No 41%          Don't Know 4%              
  National Voters       Yes  62%      No Data on     No   and   Don't Know   
  Labour Voters         Yes  47%      No Data on     No   and   Don't Know   


  Q 4: "Which Political Parties, if any, do you think 'play dirty' ?"           
  Respondents nominating   National   28%                                            
  Respondents nominating   Internet-Mana   17%                                 
  Respondents nominating   Labour   17%                                              
  Respondents nominating   NZ First     7%                                     
  Respondents nominating   Greens    6%                                  
  Respondents nominating   Cons      1%                                        
   Other  12%       All of Them  31%         None 4%                     Don't Know 19%                                                                        

Waking the Dead: Exploring the One News Colmar-Brunton Epsom Poll in Comparative Perspective

ACT Party Corpse: Will a nod, a wink and a saucy smile from John Key (but not
 necessarily a cup of tea, this time) be enough to revive an ACT Party on long-term 
life-support ?





National Party Spin-Meister, David Farrar, has one or two rather dodgy things
to say about the latest One News Colmar-Brunton Poll of Epsom voters.

Let's take his musings on the Epsom Party-Vote results, first.


Party Vote

In a Kiwiblog post entitled 'Labour third in Epsom' (Aug 10), Farrar approvingly quotes a One News report on the poll that states: "Six weeks out from the election and the National Party is leading the way in the Epsom electorate......(the) poll...sees National sitting with a comfortable lead in the Epsom electorate, with 60% of those polled in the electorate saying they would vote for National in the election......The Green Party, in second place, trailed far behind with only 16% of Epsom voters saying they would give their party vote to the Greens."

At this point, Farrar very helpfully informs readers that: "Labour were third on 14%", before going on to conclude: "This makes you wonder how many other seats or areas now have Labour in 3rd place for the party vote ? The Greens will be happy, and Labour should be quite worried."

I think we can extract four separate contentions, here, from both Farrar's comments and from the general tone of the One News report:
(1) That National is doing unusually well in Epsom (One News clearly casts National's performance in the Party-Vote section of the poll in highly positive, almost glowing, terms (leading the way, comfortable lead) and Farrar is happy to passively endorse this framing through uncritical quotation)
(2) That the big losers in the poll are Labour (who should be "quite worried") (Farrar regurgitates the Right-leaning meme du jour - that Labour are in danger of being supplanted by the Greens as the major Party of the Left)
(3) That the Greens are doing very poorly (One News emphasise they "trailed far behind" with "only" 16% support)
(4) Conversely, that the Greens are doing quite well (Farrar, in contrast to One News, feels the Greens "will be happy" with their performance in the poll)

The best way to test these contentions is to compare the Party-Vote results of this One News Colmar-Brunton with the actual Party-Vote in Epsom at the 2011 General Election. As you can see from the Table below ((a) Party Vote (Epsom)), contentions (1) and (2) are both wrong. While Labour are certainly down (by 2 points), the biggest losers in the poll relative to 2011, are, in fact, the Nats (down 5 points). National may well be "leading the way" in Epsom and "sitting with a comfortable lead", but - in the context of one of the most Right-leaning seats in the Country - this lead is rather less "comfortable" than it was at the last Election. If Farrar is as eager to extract broader trends and portents from the Epsom poll as he appears to be, then surely he'd be forced to conclude that, in fact, it's National that should be "quite worried" - its nationwide Party-Vote in danger of plunging by 5 points at this year's  General Election (down from 47% to 42%).

More broadly, the Right Bloc are down 4 points in Epsom in this One News Colmar-Brunton, relative to 2011, (down 5 points if you exclude - as the Nats seem to be doing - Colin Craig's Conservatives), while combined Lab+Green support is up 2 points, the Left Bloc (Lab+Green+IMP) is up 3, and the Opposition Bloc (Left Bloc+NZ First) is rating 4 points higher than in the Epsom Party-Vote at the last election. Once again, if we're going to follow Farrar's path and happily extrapolate from this poll then it's certainly not the Left that have cause to be concerned.

As for the Greens individually, Farrar finally gets something right (contention (4)) (though only, of course, because it suits his Greens supplanting Labour meme). The Greens will indeed be pleased with their 4 point rise. One News's contention (3) is thus patently wrong. But unlike Farrar, I'm not at all sure that Labour will be greatly worried by their (relatively close) third place in the poll. As you can see from the 2011 Party-Vote, the percentage point gap between Labour and the Greens in Epsom (as with a number of other affluent Auckland seats) was unusually small. Just 4 points separated the two main parties of the Left in Epsom in 2011, compared to 16 points nationwide. Something Farrar appears to have inadvertently "forgotten" to mention.

I'm a little more wary than Farrar, though, of regarding the party-vote component of this poll as some sort of talisman.  Putting aside the usual caveats about sampling error and the danger of relying on individual polls, it's clear that Epsom is by no means an average or typical seat. Not only is it well to the Right of New Zealand as a whole (National, for example, taking 65% of the Epsom Party-Vote at the last election, compared to 47% nationwide) but also, of course, that unusually close Labour/Green vote. What's more, there are various questions surrounding the voting intentions of the Don't Knows and the likely level of the Non-Vote (24% in Epsom in 2011) which add yet more layers of complexity and uncertainty [Polls generally filter out those respondents who say they probably won't vote - but this unlikely-to-vote component usually comprises a far smaller proportion in opinion polls than Non-Voters do on Election Day].

And yet, then again, I can't help but be struck by just how remarkably similar the party support trends in this One News Colmar-Brunton Epsom poll are to the trends that become obvious when one compares the current batch of nationwide opinion polls with those carried out at the same point before the 2011 Election. I'll be focussing on this in an up-coming post - suffice to say here that in both cases (ie (1) Party Support in Epsom in this latest poll compared to the 2011 Epsom Party-Vote and (2) Party Support in the most recent nationwide opinion polls compared to polling conducted at the same point in 2011)  the Opposition Bloc are up 4 points, the Right Bloc are down 4 (or, excluding the Conservatives, are down 5) and Labour are down 2.  Strong similarities also exist with changes in support for both National (down 4 points in the nationwide polls and down 5 points in the Epsom poll), the Greens (up 3 points and 4 points respectively) and the Left Bloc as a whole (up 2 points and 3 points respectively).(1)

Hence, if Farrar absolutely insists we extrapolate a wider significance from the Party-Vote component of this One News Colmar-Brunton poll of Epsom voters, then the conclusions to be drawn are entirely the inverse of those he's managed (somehow, against the odds) to come up with.

 Table (a):  Party Vote (Epsom)                                                             
 2011 General Election            One News Colmar-Brunton                  
     National      65%                     National      60%            - 5.0            
     Labour        16%                      Labour        14%            - 2.0            
     Green          12%                      Green          16%           + 4.0            
     NZ First      2.6%                     NZ First       3.3%          + 0.7            
     ACT            2.6%                     ACT            2.7%          + 0.1            
     Cons            1.1%                     Cons            2.1%          + 1.0           
     Mana           0.3%                      IMP            1.5%          + 1.2           
     Maori          0.6%                      Maori          0.6%             =              
     Non-Vote     24%                      Don't Know   6%                                

For Candidate Vote analysis, click on Read More

Education Debate Update: Latest One News Colmar-Brunton clashes with Herald-DigiPoll

One News Colmar-Brunton have just released results from a poll that directly compares the education policies of the two major parties. And its results contrast dramatically with those recorded in the recent Herald-DigiPoll (discussed in my previous post), the only other survey to take an explicitly comparative approach.

The One News Colmar-Brunton asked respondents: 'Which policy do you prefer ?
(1) Making Class Sizes smaller by funding more teachers or (2) Leadership programmes in which high-performing Principals and teachers mentor other schools ?'

The Result:

Smaller Classes 61%

Leadership Programmes 36%

Don't know 3%

The One News Colmar-Brunton figures are, in fact, almost precisely the polar opposite of the Herald-DigiPoll's findings: 61 Smaller Classes / 36 Leadership Programmes (One News) VS 35 Cut Class Sizes / 61 Improve Teaching Standards (Herald-DigiPoll).

Arguably, it's the different wording of the respective questions in these two polls (more specifically, the particular options that respondents had to choose between) that largely accounts for their dramatically different results. As I pointed out in my previous post, a number of commentators in the local blogosphere have put forward quite compelling critiques of the Herald-DigiPoll's rendition of Labour's and National's putative education policies, suggesting an inaccurate and  highly-reductive framing of the debate. Specifically, the criticism was that by setting up a head-to-head contest between
(1) Class size reduction and (2) Improving teaching standards, the Herald-DigiPoll was erroneously comparing the method on Labour's part with the desired goal on National's.
If you were going to ask respondents about Labour's method for achieving better teaching and educational outcomes then you should do precisely the same for National by asking about their method - namely financially rewarding high-performing Principals and teachers and using them to mentor in other schools. That, of course, is precisely what One News Colmar-Brunton have done and they're to be congratulated for getting it spot-on.

Click on Read more for further analysis