tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26503034531514994272024-02-20T07:36:58.013-08:00Sub-Zero PoliticsAnalysis of New Zealand Public Opinion and the Geography of the Voteswordfishhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11395947680707181966noreply@blogger.comBlogger39125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2650303453151499427.post-38164265388726423632018-05-30T10:48:00.002-07:002018-05-30T10:49:37.478-07:00Jacinda-Comparatif<img src="https://www.radionz.co.nz/assets/news_crops/39373/eight_col_jacinda.jpg?1501796860" /><br />
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Eight months have elapsed since the 2017 General Election.<br />
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Here are TV One's <i>Heylen / Colmar Brunton</i> <span style="color: #cc0000;">Preferred PM</span>
comparisons for Polls conducted over the first 8 months following the
last four changes of government (1990 / 1999 / 2008 / 2017)<br />
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Click link <a href="https://subzpsubzp.blogspot.com/2018/05/jacinda-comparatif_30.html">here</a><br />
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swordfishhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11395947680707181966noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2650303453151499427.post-9592515716773640042016-12-08T07:29:00.003-08:002016-12-08T07:32:44.731-08:00Fairfax-Nielsen poll - Next National Leader / Political Fallout from Key Resignation / Early Election<img src="https://resources.stuff.co.nz/content/dam/images/1/f/y/3/q/6/image.related.StuffLandscapeSixteenByNine.620x349.1fy53g.png/1480998461683.jpg" /><br />
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<span style="font-size: x-large;">Fairfax-Nielsen Poll</span><br />
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Weighted On-line Poll conducted in the immediate wake of Key's shock resignation on Monday (carried out "<em>on the evening of December 5, the day John Key announced his resignation, and on the morning of December 6"). </em><br />
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<span style="font-size: x-large;">Here</span><br />
<a href="http://subzpsubzp.blogspot.co.nz/2016/12/fairfax-nielsen-poll-next-national.html"><span style="font-size: x-large;">http://subzpsubzp.blogspot.co.nz/2016/12/fairfax-nielsen-poll-next-national.html</span></a><br />
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swordfishhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11395947680707181966noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2650303453151499427.post-47692567832511546812016-11-28T03:18:00.003-08:002016-11-28T03:18:42.894-08:00Updated CB<img height="425" src="http://www.onlinevotingplatform.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/public-opinion.jpg" width="640" /><br />
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<span style="font-size: x-large;"><strong>Colmar Brunton</strong> Polls since 2014</span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;">Here ... <a href="http://subzpsubzp.blogspot.co.nz/2016/11/updated-cb.html">http://subzpsubzp.blogspot.co.nz/2016/11/updated-cb.html</a></span><br />
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swordfishhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11395947680707181966noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2650303453151499427.post-51846622041910364812016-03-20T02:56:00.002-07:002016-03-20T02:57:59.408-07:00Heading South ?<img height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhM8dIRlJIurxol9t6Yxep4wEF58R3BZ4EY0KoKp8WvArqUCfZrN06niCX8L-dEMGr9VtRtKM1DJL3DOIXZodkQLytOZJ1MwIg47EypoERBMSyMQGv3Ul8OIVkY3CEETNiLETVFqPr82_s/s640/Penguins.jpg" width="640" /><br />
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Are Right-Wing Bloggers and National Party Spin-Meisters correct when they argue: <em>"Labour's poll ratings are heading south at an alarming rate" </em>?<br />
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Are Labour's numbers in free-fall ?<br />
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Find out here ... <a href="http://subzpsubzp.blogspot.co.nz/">http://subzpsubzp.blogspot.co.nz/</a><br />
<br />swordfishhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11395947680707181966noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2650303453151499427.post-43616090708214273252016-03-14T09:30:00.002-07:002016-03-14T09:32:07.647-07:00Next National Leader<img src="http://www.radionz.co.nz/assets/galleries/14278/full_original_1M1A9956.jpg?1432170190" height="400" width="640" /><br />
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I see there's been a smattering of discussion at <strong>Public Address </strong>on (amongst other things) leadership succession in a post-Key National Party.<br />
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I provide the findings of leading Public Pollsters on the matter here ...<br />
<a href="http://subzpsubzp.blogspot.co.nz/">http://subzpsubzp.blogspot.co.nz/</a><br />
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<br />swordfishhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11395947680707181966noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2650303453151499427.post-55753722597439742432016-03-07T01:33:00.001-08:002016-03-07T01:34:42.869-08:00What Good Flag Design Looks Like<img src="http://cdn3-i.hitc-s.com/165/flag_of_bosnia_herzegovina_58918.jpg" height="360" width="640" /><br />
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Some of my Favourite Flag Designs (32 to be exact) in Alphabetical order.<br />
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<strong><span style="font-size: x-large;">A - L</span></strong><br />
<strong>Here <a href="http://subzpsubzp.blogspot.co.nz/">http://subzpsubzp.blogspot.co.nz/</a></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: x-large;"></span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: x-large;">M - Z</span></strong><br />
<strong>Here <a href="http://s-zpolitics.blogspot.co.nz/">http://s-zpolitics.blogspot.co.nz/</a></strong><br />
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<strong></strong><br />
Rather than cluttering up this blog, I've stuck them safely away on two of my subsidiary blogs <br />
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(Having a bit of trouble with Swaziland, but isn't that <em>always </em>the way ?)<br />
<br />swordfishhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11395947680707181966noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2650303453151499427.post-16254737313853394322016-03-04T04:03:00.000-08:002016-03-06T05:42:44.067-08:00Old Glory: Latest UMR Research Flag Poll<img src="http://www.maoritelevision.com/sites/default/files/styles/news_article_full/public/news_article/Haki%20copy_1.jpg" height="357" width="640" /><br />
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<strong><span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> UMR Research (Late Feb 2016) </span></strong><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><strong> </strong><em>Which Flag ? </em></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><em> </em><strong><span style="background-color: #073763;"> New </span><span style="background-color: #444444;"> </span><span style="background-color: #990000;"> Current </span><span style="background-color: #444444;"> </span><span style="background-color: #741b47;"> Unsure </span><span style="background-color: #444444;"> </span></strong></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"> Entire Sample <strong>32 59 9 </strong></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"> </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Labour Supporters <strong>19 73 8 </strong> </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> NZF Supporters <strong>24 73 3 </strong> </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Green Supporters <strong>28 60 12 </strong> </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> National Supporters <strong>45 45 10 </strong> </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Female <strong> 29 61 10 </strong> </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Male <strong>36 56 8 </strong> </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Age 18-29 <strong>33 60 7 </strong> </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Age 30-44 <strong>29 64 7 </strong> </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Age 45-59 <strong>32 55 13 </strong> </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Age 60 + <strong>35 57 8 </strong> </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Attitudes to Flag by Certainty to Vote </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Almost Certain <strong>32 62 6 </strong> </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Very Likely <strong>33 59 8 </strong> </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Fairly/Not Likely <strong>39 45 16 </strong></span><br />
<strong><span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> </span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"></span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"></span></strong><br />
<span style="background-color: #f3f3f3; color: black;">In the report accompanying their just-released Flag Poll (conducted over </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #f3f3f3; color: black;">the final week of February), </span><span style="background-color: #f3f3f3; color: black;"><em>UMR Research</em> suggest their latest result: </span><br />
<em><span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;">"possibly represents a very modest gain for the change campaign as most previous polls have shown a 2:1 margin for retention of the current flag." </span></em><br />
<em><span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;"></span></em><br />
<span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;">True. In fact, if anything, even a slightly greater margin in most recent public polls. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;"></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;">But, then again, it's best to compare apples with apples: in other words - you really want to compare this latest <em>UMR Research </em>Poll with the previous (early February) one from the same pollster. Do that and you find that, in fact, the <strong><span style="color: #073763;">New</span>/<span style="color: #990000;">Current</span> </strong>preference ratios are <em>precisely the same</em>. Unlike the present poll, <em>UMR </em>excluded the <strong><span style="color: #741b47;">Don't Knows</span> </strong>from their presentation of the early Feb poll findings <strong>(1) </strong>- which recorded a 35/65 split in favour of retaining the current flag. Exclude the 9% <strong><span style="color: #741b47;">Unsure</span> </strong>in this latest poll and you get precisely the same 35/65 split. So, in the specific context of <em>UMR </em>polls on the topic, there really hasn't been any closing of the gap at all.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;"></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;">The <em>UMR </em>commentary also highlights what it implies is a critically important group of voters: those who, in principle, would be more than happy to change the flag but just don't like the alternative on offer (comprising almost 20% in the early February <em>UMR </em>and 16% in the early February <em>Newshub Reid Research </em>Polls). </span><br />
<br />
<span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;"><em>UMR </em>may well be right to argue that:</span><br />
<span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;">Neither <em>"those voting for a new flag to remove the symbolic colonial yoke"</em> nor those voting against change <em>"because our soldiers died under the current flag" </em>are likely to change their minds on the matter<em> . </em></span><span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;">But that the group voting for retention purely or largely <em>because they don't much care for the Lockwood design </em>just might. <em>UMR </em>suggests that this group tends to be younger and much more likely to support Labour and the Greens than the population as a whole. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;"></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;">All I can say is: I'm a middle-aged member of this 16-20%<strong><span style="color: #351c75;"> </span><span style="color: black;">(2)</span></strong> and I've just cast my vote (albeit somewhat reluctantly) for the current flag - <em>"Old Glory" </em>as I like to call it. And I suspect most of my fellow <em>Pragmatic Opponents </em>of the Lockwood alternative will do the same. After all, not only are people relatively unlikely to suddenly alter their views on the quality of the Lockwood design (unless those views are weakly held), but also, as <em>UMR </em>itself has shown, younger Labour and Green voters are particularly responsive to the political motive: agreeing in overwhelming numbers that <em>"New Zealanders should send John Key a message"</em><em> </em>in this referendum by <em>"voting for the current flag." </em></span><br />
<em><span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;"></span></em><br />
<span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;">Then again, it's also true that, for the first time, the Under 30s in this latest <em>UMR </em>are no longer the generation most opposed to change. They've been replaced by the <em>young-middle aged </em>30-44 year olds.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;"></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;">Finally, as in the previous <em>UMR, </em>the current flag's margin over the Lockwood alternative increases slightly when you focus solely on those most likely to vote.</span><br />
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<strong><span style="background-color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;">Footnotes </span></strong><br />
<span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;"></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;"><strong>(1) </strong>Well, that was my assumption last night. But I've since discovered that in fact the early Feb <em>UMR </em>was conducted online and forced respondents into just the two choices: keep the flag or change it. The latest <em>UMR </em>is a phone poll which allowed an <em>Unsure </em>option. None of which alters the conclusion that, among those who have made up their mind, the 35/65 split is precisely the same in both polls.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;"></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #f3f3f3; color: #351c75;"><span style="color: black;"><strong><span style="color: black;">(2) </span></strong>There's probably a spectrum of <em>Pragmatic Opponents</em> and I'm likely to be at the more conservative end. While I'd quite like to move to a fresh new flag and be rid of the colonial symbolism - the alternative design would really need to be a <em>significant </em>improvement on the current one. Some of us are, you know, just a little bit discriminating. I had little regard for <em>any </em>of the initial 40 designs, let alone the final five. Compromise is one thing, you're never likely to get <em>precisely</em> what you want, but that doesn't mean you just casually vote for any old dross. One thing I'll say for the current ensign: at least it exudes a certain sense of dignity and gravitas. Which is more than you can say for the <em>something for everyone </em>Lockwood design.</span></span><br />
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<strong><span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;">[As always, the tables are best viewed via laptop - otherwise they're apt to look just a tad messy]</span></strong><br />
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<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3;"></span><br />swordfishhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11395947680707181966noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2650303453151499427.post-64275922696889672502016-02-29T04:46:00.000-08:002016-02-29T05:31:55.982-08:00Flag/TPPA Update: Latest Colmar Brunton<img height="417" src="http://st.depositphotos.com/1020341/4420/i/950/depositphotos_44206719-Waving-flag-of-New-Zealand-and-USA.jpg" width="640" /><br />
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<strong><span style="color: #20124d; font-size: x-large;">Flag</span></strong><br />
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<strong><span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> One News Colmar Brunton (Feb 2016) </span></strong><br />
<span style="color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><em> Current or Alternative Flag </em>?</span><span style="background-color: #444444;"> </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #073763; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"> </span> Alternative <span style="background-color: #444444;"> </span><span style="background-color: #990000;"> Current </span><span style="background-color: #444444;"> </span><span style="background-color: #274e13;"> Neither </span><span style="background-color: #444444;"> </span><span style="background-color: #741b47;"> DK </span><span style="background-color: #444444;"> </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #073763; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"> Entire Sample <strong>26 63 4 7 </strong></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #073763; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><strong> </strong></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><strong> <span style="background-color: #444444;">Above Average</span></strong> <span style="background-color: #073763;"> </span><span style="background-color: #073763;">Alternative </span><span style="background-color: #444444;"> </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Nat Supporters <strong>40 </strong></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><strong> </strong>High Income <strong>34 </strong> </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Age 55+ <strong>32 </strong></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><strong> <span style="background-color: #444444;"> Above </span></strong><span style="background-color: #990000;"><strong><span style="background-color: #444444;">Average </span> </strong>Current <span style="background-color: #444444;"> </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Maori <strong>85 </strong> </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> NZF Supporters <strong>83 </strong></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Lab Supporters <strong>76 </strong></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Age 18-34<strong> 74 </strong></span><br />
<span style="color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"></span><br />
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<strong><span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Polls since Late 2014 - Entire Sample </span></strong><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><strong> </strong> <span style="background-color: #073763;"> Change </span><span style="background-color: #444444;"> </span><span style="background-color: #990000;"> Keep </span><span style="background-color: #444444;"> </span><span style="background-color: #274e13;"> Neutral/DK </span><span style="background-color: #444444;"> </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"> </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> <strong>CB</strong> (Feb 2016) <strong>26 63 11</strong> </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> <strong>RR</strong> (Feb 2016) <strong> 30 61 9</strong> </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> <strong>UMR</strong> (Feb 2016) <strong> 35 65 -</strong> </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> <strong>RR</strong> (Nov 2015) <strong> 29 65 6</strong> </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> <strong> RR</strong> (Sep 2015) <strong> 25 69 6</strong> </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> <strong>RNZ</strong> (Sep 2015) <strong> 28 61 11</strong> </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> <strong>CB</strong> (Sep 2015) <strong> 28 66 6</strong> </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> <strong>HD </strong>(Aug 2015) <strong>23 53 24</strong> </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> <strong> HD</strong> (April 2015) <strong> 25 70 5</strong> </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> <strong> RNZ</strong> (Oct 2014) <strong>19 43 37</strong> </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"></span><br />
<strong>CB = </strong>One News Colmar Brunton<br />
<strong>RR = </strong>Newshub Reid Research<br />
<strong>UMR = </strong>UMR Research<br />
<strong>RNZ = </strong>Research New Zealand<br />
<strong>HD = </strong>Herald DigiPoll<br />
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<span style="background-color: #f3f3f3; color: #20124d; font-size: x-large;"><strong>TPPA</strong></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #f3f3f3; color: black;"><strong>QUESTION: </strong><em>"Some say the Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement gives too much power to overseas companies, because they can use the Investor State Disputes System to challenge the Government. Some argue this will restrict New Zealand's sovereignty, which is our ability to make our own laws and govern ourselves."</em></span><br />
<em><span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;"></span></em><br />
<em><span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;">"Others say the agreement has very little impact on our sovereignty because other countries can't write our laws, and because the agreement goes both ways, and also protects New Zealand companies when investing in overseas markets."</span></em><br />
<em><span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;"></span></em><br />
<em><span style="background-color: #f3f3f3; color: black;">"Which of these best describe your view on the TPPA ?"</span></em><br />
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<strong><span style="background-color: #990000; color: #f3f3f3;"> Impact Sov Concerned <span style="background-color: #f3f3f3; color: black;"> = TPPA will have an impact on our sovereignty and I'm concerned about it</span></span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="background-color: #073763; color: #f3f3f3;"> Impact Sov Not Concerned <span style="background-color: #f3f3f3; color: black;"> = TPPA will have an impact on our sovereignty but it's not a big concern</span></span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="background-color: #274e13; color: #f3f3f3;"> Not Impact <span style="background-color: #f3f3f3; color: black;"> = TPPA won't have much impact on our sovereignty</span></span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;"></span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="background-color: #741b47; color: #f3f3f3;"> DK <span style="background-color: #f3f3f3; color: black;"> = Don't Know</span></span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;"></span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;"></span></strong><br />
<em><span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;"></span></em><br />
<strong><span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> One News Colmar Brunton (Feb 2016) </span></strong><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> <em>TPPA ? </em></span><br />
<span style="color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"> </span><span style="background-color: #990000;"> Impact Sov </span><span style="background-color: #444444;"> </span><span style="background-color: #073763;"> Impact Sov </span><span style="background-color: #444444;"> </span><span style="background-color: #274e13;"> Not Impact </span><span style="background-color: #444444;"> </span><span style="background-color: #741b47;"> </span><span style="background-color: #741b47;">DK </span><span style="background-color: #444444;"> </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="background-color: #990000;"> Concerned </span><span style="background-color: #444444;"> </span><span style="background-color: #073763;"> Not Concerned </span><span style="background-color: #444444;"> </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"> Entire Sample <strong>42 22 24 12</strong> </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> <strong>Above Average </strong><span style="background-color: #990000;"> Impact Sov Concerned </span><span style="background-color: #444444;"> </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"> Maori (Ethnicity) <strong>82 </strong></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><strong> </strong>NZF Supporters <strong>73 </strong> </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Green Supporters <strong> 67 </strong></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Lab Supporters <strong>62 </strong></span><br />
<strong><span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> </span></strong><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><strong> Above </strong><span style="background-color: #444444;"><strong>Average</strong> </span><span style="background-color: #073763;"> Not Concerned </span><span style="background-color: #274e13;"> Not Impact </span><span style="background-color: #444444;"> (combined) </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"> Nat Supporters <strong> 70</strong> </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> High Income <strong> 61</strong> </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Male <strong> 52</strong> </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> NZ European <strong> 51</strong> </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"></span><br />swordfishhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11395947680707181966noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2650303453151499427.post-48464784527284186732016-02-17T09:20:00.000-08:002016-02-17T09:20:55.163-08:00How's the Vanity Project Going ?<img height="353" src="https://s.yimg.com/ea/img/-/150505/nz_flags_beehive_1akgppt-1akgq36.jpg" width="640" /><br />
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Latest <em>Newshub-Reid Research</em> poll on Flag change.<br />
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<strong><span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Newshub-Reid Research Poll (Feb 2016) </span></strong><br />
<span style="color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><strong><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"> </span></strong><em>Change the Flag ? </em></span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: x-large;"><em> <span style="background-color: #073763;"> </span></em><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Yes </span></span><span style="background-color: #444444;"> </span><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"> No </span><span style="background-color: #444444;"> </span></span><span style="background-color: #274e13;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"> DK<span style="background-color: #274e13;"> </span></span></span><span style="background-color: #444444;"> </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"> Entire Sample</span><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"> </span><span style="font-family: inherit;"><strong><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">30 61 9</span> </strong></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: x-large;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><strong> </strong></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="font-family: inherit;"> Nat Supporters <strong>41 48 11 </strong> </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Lab Supporters <strong>20 73 </strong> <strong>7</strong> </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Green Supporters <strong>30 60 </strong> <strong>10 </strong></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> NZF Supporters <strong>34 66 0 </strong></span><br />
<strong><span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> </span></strong><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><strong> </strong><em><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Quality of Lockwood Design ? </span></em></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: inherit; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="background-color: #073763; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"> Good <span style="background-color: #444444;"> </span><span style="background-color: #990000;"> Not Good </span><span style="background-color: #444444;"> </span><span style="background-color: #274e13;"> DK </span><span style="background-color: #444444;"> </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"> Entire Sample <strong>35 60 5 </strong><strong> </strong></span></span></span></span><br />
<strong><span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> </span></strong><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><strong> </strong><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><em>I want to change the flag but am voting </em></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><em> for the current flag because I don't like </em></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><em> the alternative design </em></span><span style="background-color: #990000; font-family: inherit;"><strong> = 16 <span style="background-color: #444444;"> </span></strong></span></span><br />
<strong><span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> </span></strong><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: small;"></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3;"></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3;"></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3;"></span><br />
Previous Polls in <em>Reverse Chronological Order </em>back to late-2014.<br />
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<strong><span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: inherit; font-size: x-large;"> UMR Research (Feb 2016) </span></strong><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><strong><span style="font-family: inherit;"> </span></strong><em><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"> Which Flag ?</span> </span></em></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><em> </em><span style="background-color: #073763;"> New </span><span style="background-color: #444444;"> </span><span style="background-color: #990000;"> Current </span><span style="background-color: #444444;"> </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: inherit; font-size: x-large;"> Entire Sample <strong>35 65 </strong></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: inherit; font-size: x-large;"><strong> </strong></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><strong> </strong><span style="font-family: inherit;">NZF Supporters <strong>17 83 </strong></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><strong> </strong>Labour Supporters <strong>30 70 </strong></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><strong> </strong>Green Supporters <strong>32 68 </strong></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><strong> </strong>National Supporters <strong>50 50 </strong></span><br />
<strong><span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> </span></strong><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><strong> </strong>Male <strong>35 65 </strong></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><strong> </strong>Female <strong>35 65 </strong></span><br />
<strong><span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> </span></strong><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><strong> </strong>Age 18-29 <strong>28 72 </strong></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><strong> </strong>Age 30-44 <strong>38 62 </strong></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><strong> </strong>Age 45-59 <strong>37 63 </strong></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><strong> </strong>Age 60 + <strong>37 63 </strong></span><br />
<strong><span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> </span></strong><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><strong> </strong>Attitudes to Flag by Certainty to Vote </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Almost Certain <strong>34 66 </strong></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><strong> </strong>Very Likely <strong>33 67 </strong></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><strong> </strong>Fairly/Not likely <strong>48 52 </strong></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><strong> </strong>Won't Vote <strong>22 78 </strong></span><br />
<strong><span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> </span></strong><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><strong> <span style="font-family: inherit;"> </span></strong></span><em><span style="font-family: inherit;">The Flag Referendum has been a </span></em></span><span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><em><span style="font-family: inherit;">distraction </span></em></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><em><span style="font-family: inherit;"> and </span></em></span><span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><em><span style="font-family: inherit;">a waste of money. </span></em></span><span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><em><span style="font-family: inherit;">New Zealanders should send </span></em></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><em><span style="font-family: inherit;"> John Key a message by voting for the Current Flag </span></em></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="background-color: #073763;"> Disagree </span><span style="background-color: #444444;"> </span><span style="background-color: #990000;"> Agree </span><span style="background-color: #444444;"> </span><span style="background-color: #274e13;"> Neither </span><span style="background-color: #444444;"> </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #f3f3f3; font-family: inherit; font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"> Entire Sample <strong>23 66 11 </strong></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #f3f3f3; font-family: inherit; font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444; font-family: inherit;"> </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #f3f3f3; font-family: inherit; font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444; font-family: inherit;"> NZF Supporters <strong>3 89 8 </strong> </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #f3f3f3; font-family: inherit; font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444; font-family: inherit;"> Lab Supporters <strong>15 75 9 </strong> </span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: #444444; font-family: inherit;"> Green Supporters <strong>18 72 10 </strong> </span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: #444444; font-family: inherit;"> Nat Supporters <strong>40 47 13 </strong></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"> </span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"> Male </span><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"> <strong>28 61 11 </strong></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: inherit; font-size: x-large;"> Female <strong>19 70 11 </strong> </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: inherit; font-size: x-large;"> Age 18-29 <strong>15 71 13 </strong> </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: inherit; font-size: x-large;"> Age 30-44 <strong>23 63 14 </strong> </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: inherit; font-size: x-large;"> Age 45-59 <strong>27 66 7 </strong> </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: inherit; font-size: x-large;"> Age 60 + <strong>26 65 10 </strong> </span><br />
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<strong><span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: inherit; font-size: x-large;"> 3 News Reid Research Poll (Nov 2015) </span></strong><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><strong> </strong><em><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Change the Flag ? </span></em></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: x-large;"><em> </em><span style="background-color: #073763;"> Yes </span><span style="background-color: #444444;"> </span><span style="background-color: #990000;"> No </span><span style="background-color: #444444;"> </span><span style="background-color: #274e13;"> <span style="font-family: inherit;">DK </span></span><span style="background-color: #444444; font-family: inherit;"> </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444; font-family: inherit;"> Entire Sample <strong>29 65 6 </strong></span></span><br />
<strong><span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"></span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"></span></strong><br />
<span style="background-color: #f3f3f3; color: black;"></span><br />
<strong><span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"></span></strong><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: inherit; font-size: x-large;"><strong> 3 News Reid Research (Sep 2015</strong><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><em>) </em></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: x-large;"><em> Change the Flag </em><span style="background-color: #444444;">? </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="background-color: #073763;"> Yes </span><span style="background-color: #444444;"> </span><span style="background-color: #990000;"> No </span><span style="background-color: #444444;"> </span><span style="background-color: #274e13;"> <span style="font-family: inherit;">DK </span></span><span style="background-color: #444444; font-family: inherit;"> </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444; font-family: inherit;"> Entire Sample <strong>25 69 6 </strong></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #f3f3f3; font-size: small;"></span><br />
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<strong><span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: inherit; font-size: x-large;"> Research New Zealand (Sep 2015) </span></strong><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><strong> </strong><em><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Adopt New Flag ? </span></em></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: x-large;"><em> </em> <span style="background-color: #073763;"> Agree </span><span style="background-color: #444444;"> </span><span style="background-color: #990000;"> Disagree </span><span style="background-color: #444444;"> </span><span style="background-color: #274e13;"> <span style="font-family: inherit;">DK </span></span><span style="background-color: #444444; font-family: inherit;"> </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444; font-family: inherit;"> Entire Sample <strong>28 61 <span style="font-family: inherit;">11 </span></strong></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444; font-family: inherit;"> </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Male <strong> 29 60 11 </strong> </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Female <strong>28 62 11 </strong> </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Age 18-54 <strong> 26 62 12 </strong> </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Age 55 <strong>+ 34 58 8 </strong></span><strong> </strong><br />
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<strong><span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: inherit; font-size: x-large;"> One News Colmar Brunton (Sep 2015) </span></strong><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><strong> </strong><em><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Change to a New Design ? </span></em></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: x-large;"><em> </em> <span style="background-color: #073763;"> Change </span><span style="background-color: #444444;"> </span><span style="background-color: #990000;"> Keep </span><span style="background-color: #444444;"> </span><span style="background-color: #274e13;"> <span style="font-family: inherit;">DK </span></span><span style="background-color: #444444; font-family: inherit;"> </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444; font-family: inherit;"> Entire Sample <strong>28 66 6 </strong></span></span><br />
<strong><span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> </span></strong><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><strong> Above Average </strong><span style="background-color: #073763;"><strong> </strong><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Change </span></span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"> </span> </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Green Supporters <strong> 41 </strong> </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Nat Supporters <strong>37 </strong> </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> High Income <strong> 37</strong> </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Auckland <strong> 35 </strong></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><strong> <span style="background-color: #444444;">Above Average </span></strong><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"> Keep</span> </span><span style="background-color: #444444;"> </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"> NZF Supporters <strong>93 </strong></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><strong> </strong>Low Income <strong>85</strong> </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Maori <strong>83 </strong></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><strong> </strong>Lab Supporters <strong>78 </strong></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: inherit; font-size: x-large;"><strong> Herald DigiPoll (Aug 2015</strong><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">) </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: x-large;"> <em>Change Flag ? </em></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: x-large;"><em> </em><span style="background-color: #073763;"> Support </span><span style="background-color: #444444;"> </span><span style="background-color: #990000;"> Oppose </span><span style="background-color: #444444;"> </span><span style="background-color: #274e13;"> <span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Depends </span></span><span style="background-color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"> </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444; font-family: inherit;"> Entire Sample <strong>23 53 24 </strong></span></span><br />
<strong><span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> </span></strong><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><strong> </strong><span style="font-family: inherit;">Male - <strong>44 - </strong> </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Female - <strong>61 - </strong> </span><br />
<strong><span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"></span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"></span></strong><br />
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<strong><span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"></span></strong><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: inherit; font-size: x-large;"><strong> Herald DigiPoll (April 2015</strong><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">) </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: x-large;"> <em><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Time for a New Flag ? </span></em></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: x-large;"><em> </em><span style="background-color: #073763;"> Yes </span><span style="background-color: #444444;"> </span><span style="background-color: #990000;"> No </span><span style="background-color: #444444;"> </span><span style="background-color: #274e13;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"> Unsure</span><span style="font-family: inherit;"> </span></span><span style="background-color: #444444; font-family: inherit;"> </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444; font-family: inherit;"> Entire Sample <strong>25 70 5 </strong></span></span><br />
<strong><span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"></span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"></span></strong><br />
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<strong><span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: inherit; font-size: x-large;"> Research New Zealand (Oct 2014) </span></strong><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><strong> </strong><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><em>Adopt New Flag </em><span style="background-color: #444444;">? </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #073763; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"> <span style="background-color: #073763;"> Agree </span> <span style="background-color: #990000;"> Disagree </span> <span style="background-color: #274e13;"> Neutral<span style="font-family: inherit;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: inherit;"> </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #073763; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444; font-family: inherit;"> Entire Sample <strong>19 43 37 </strong></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #073763; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444; font-family: inherit;"><strong> </strong>Male <strong>19 40 40 </strong></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><strong> </strong>Female <strong>19 46 34 </strong></span><br />
<strong><span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> </span></strong><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><strong> </strong>Age 18-34 <strong> 16 47 35</strong> </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Age 35-54 <strong> 18 40 41</strong> </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Age 55 + <strong>23 42 33 </strong></span><br />
<strong><span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> </span></strong><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><strong> </strong>Income <40k <strong> 18 44 35</strong> </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Income 40-80k <strong> 20 45 36</strong> </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Income 80k<strong>> 21 38 41</strong> </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Upper NI <strong>19 40 40</strong> </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Lower NI <strong>19 44 36</strong> </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> SI <strong> 20 44 35</strong> </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Euro <strong>18 44 35</strong> </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Maori <strong> 20 45 36</strong> </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Pasifika <strong> 21 38 41</strong> </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Other<strong> 16 51 30</strong> </span><br />
<strong><span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"></span></strong><br />swordfishhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11395947680707181966noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2650303453151499427.post-36823637135094882182016-01-26T08:23:00.001-08:002016-01-26T08:23:45.834-08:00TPPA<img src="http://old.theawarenessparty.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/imagesCA012AU1.jpg" height="479" width="640" /><br />
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At his first post-Cabinet briefing of the year, John Key insisted his Government was sitting on the right side of public opinion regarding the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA):<br />
<i>"I think we are winning the argument, actually, with the New Zealand public." </i> <br />
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Meanwhile, seeking to decipher whether or not John Key and his advisors have been setting a carefully-layed trap for anti-TPPA protesters, Chris Trotter at <i>Bowalley Road</i> has speculated that maybe: <br />
<i>"Over the Summer, Key and his pollster, David Farrar have been drilling down deep into New Zealanders' thoughts and feelings about the TPPA" </i><br />
and that, if they have, they've probably discovered that:<br />
<i>"most New Zealanders are quite relaxed about the TPPA. Any fears Kiwis may have had about it in 2015 were allayed by a combination of Helen Clark's pre-Christmas endorsement of the agreement, and the mainstream media's generally positive coverage of the final draft."</i><br />
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I'm not quite so sure.<br />
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Here are four recent Polls on the TPPA by leading public pollsters:<br />
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<b><span style="font-size: x-large;">Reverse Chronological Order</span></b><br />
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<b><span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Herald-DigiPoll (Dec 2015) </span></b><br />
<b><span style="color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #666666;"> TPPA </span><span style="background-color: #990000;"> Oppose </span><span style="background-color: #666666;"> </span><span style="background-color: #073763;"> Support </span><span style="background-color: #666666;"> </span><span style="background-color: #274e13;"> No View </span><span style="background-color: #666666;"> </span> </span></b><br />
<b><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #666666; color: #f3f3f3;"> 26% 27% 46% </span></span></b><br />
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<b><span style="background-color: #666666; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"></span></b><br />
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<b><span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> 3 News Reid Research (Nov 2015) </span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #666666; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> TPPA <span style="background-color: #990000;"> Oppose </span><span style="background-color: #666666;"> </span><span style="background-color: #073763;"> Support </span><span style="background-color: #666666;"> </span><span style="background-color: #274e13;"> Don't Know </span><span style="background-color: #666666;"> </span></span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #666666; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #666666;"> 52% 34% 14% </span></span></b><br />
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<b><span style="background-color: #666666; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"></span></b><br />
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<b><span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> One News Colmar Brunton (Sep 2015) </span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #666666; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #666666;">TPPA <span style="background-color: #990000;"> </span></span>Not Sign <span style="background-color: #666666;"> </span><span style="background-color: #073763;"> Should Sign </span><span style="background-color: #666666;"> </span><span style="background-color: #274e13;"> Don't Know</span></span><span style="background-color: #666666;"> </span></span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #666666; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #666666;"> 44% 24% 32% </span></span></b><br />
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<b><span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Herald-DigiPoll (Aug 2015) </span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #38761d; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #666666;"> TPPA </span><span style="background-color: #990000;"> Oppose </span><span style="background-color: #666666;"> </span><span style="background-color: #073763;"> Support </span><span style="background-color: #666666;"><span style="background-color: #274e13;"></span> </span><span style="background-color: #274e13;"> No View </span><span style="background-color: #666666;"> </span></span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: black; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #666666;"> 30% 20%</span></span><span style="background-color: #666666;"> 45% </span></span></b><br />
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Helen Clark signalled her support for the TPPA on October 1. Over a month later, <b>3 News Reid Research</b> carried out the first poll to be conducted on the matter since Clark's intervention (fieldwork 8-16 November). As you can see, <b><span style="color: #990000;">over half</span></b> of respondents <span style="color: #990000;"><b>opposed</b></span> the deal with <b><span style="color: #073763;">only a third supporting</span></b> it.<br />
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These <b><span style="color: #990000;">Oppose</span>/<span style="color: #073763;">Support</span></b> differentials are pretty much in line with those found in the <b>One News Colmar Brunton</b> poll two months earlier - albeit with a much greater <b>Don't Know</b> factor in the latter.<br />
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That leaves the two <b>Herald-DigiPolls - </b>both of which stand out for (1) their relatively weak opposition sentiment and (2) the comparatively hefty number of respondents choosing the <b>Don't have enough knowledge to come to a Conclusion</b> option (summarised in the Tables as <b><i>No View</i>). </b>According to the latest Herald-Digi (carried out 4-14 December), the roughly half of New Zealanders <i>who have made up their mind</i> are pretty much split down the middle, with a small swing from Opposition to Support apparently occurring between the two polls (<b>Aug-Dec: <span style="color: #990000;">Oppose</span></b> 30% down to 26%<b>/<span style="color: #073763;">Support</span></b> 20% up to 27%). (<b>Note:</b> however, that my source for the August Poll - which just happens to be the <i>Curia</i> website run by Mr Farrar himself - provides figures (30/20/45) that only add up to 95%. So, I would treat the August <i>Herald-Digi</i> numbers with a certain amount of caution until I can confirm them).<br />
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On the face of it, the December <i>Herald-Digi</i> (the <i>latest</i> sampling of public opinion on the issue) might appear to partially confirm Trotter's worst fears - <i>"most New Zealanders are quite relaxed about the TPPA"</i> - given that just a quarter (26%) explicitly oppose the deal. But, then again, outright <i>support</i> for the deal is only a smidgen higher at 27% (a statistical tie), with roughly half of respondents feeling they haven't been furnished with enough details to come to a firm conclusion one way or the other. I'm by no means sure that the latter can simply be deemed <i>"relaxed"</i> about the deal - particularly when the secrecy surrounding the TPPA negotiations had been given a resounding thumbs down in a mid-November <i>Consumerlink</i> Poll. The poll suggested most New Zealanders wanted TPPA to face a solid dose of democratic scrutiny, with fully two-thirds feeling the contents of the agreement should have been made public before the deal was completed and signed.<br />
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More importantly, though, there are reasons to be a little cautious of the two <i>Herald-Digis</i>, particularly the December one.<br />
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The obvious divergence (in TPPA findings) between the <i>Herald-Digis</i> on the one hand, and the TV News Polls (<i>One News Colmar Brunton</i> and <i>3 News Reid Research</i>) on the other, tellingly reflects a similar divide on <b>Party Support</b>. Since May 2015, <i>every single one</i> of the <i>Colmar Bruntons</i> and <i>Reid Research</i> Polls have favoured the Opposition (always placing it ahead of the Governing Bloc), while, in stark contrast, <i>all</i> of the <i>Herald-Digis</i> have favoured the Government - the December 2015 poll by a massive 10 points (very much an outlier compared to other polls taken around the same time). <br />
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I think it's reasonable to suggest, then, that Pollsters currently favouring the Government and the broader Right - <i>Herald-Digi</i> (also <i>Roy Morgan</i>) - are naturally going to discover less Opposition to the TPPA than pollsters currently placing the Opposition Bloc in front - the <i>Colmar Brunton</i> and <i>Reid Research</i> Polls. (although it probably can't explain the sheer magnitude of the divergence). All comes down, I'd suggest, to contrasting methodologies - whether it be Question Wording, Sampling Techniques, Weighting Procedures or a mix of all three.<br />
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Hence, the fact that the December <i>Herald-Digi</i> is such an obvious Right/Govt-friendly outlier in terms of Party Support should alert us to its probable impact on the TPPA figures. There are grounds, I think, for some caution.<br />
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My personal feeling is that the <i>Colmar Bruntons</i> and <i>Reid Research</i> Polls tend to be more methodologically robust (for reasons that I may discuss in up-coming posts), but, being a relatively conscientious sort of a geezer, I'm also prepared to at least consider the possibility that my Left-leaning proclivities may play a subliminal role in my thinking here (what with the two TV News-sponsored Pollsters currently pointing to an Opposition and anti-TPPA lead).<br />
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Both the Nov 2015 <b>3 News Reid Research</b> and Sep 2015 <b>One News Colmar Brunton</b> Polls provide some demographic detail (in the process, pointing to the vital role of Party Support in shaping views on the issue and hinting at the way variation in Govt/Oppo support between different pollsters therefore impacts decisively on the final TPPA poll results).<br />
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<b>3 News Reid Research</b> supplies breakdowns by Party Support specifically for the <b>Oppose</b> option:<br />
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<b><span style="background-color: #990000; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Oppose TPPA </span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> NZ First Supporters = 87% </span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Green Supporters = 84% </span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Labour Supporters = 73% </span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> National Supporters = 23% </span></b><br />
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<b>One News Colmar Brunton</b> provides stats for those demographics more likely than average to choose any one of the particular options:<br />
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<span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;">Those more likely than average (24%) to <span style="color: #073763;"><b>Support</b></span><span style="color: black;"> the TPPA were:</span></span><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #073763; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> National Supporters = 37% </span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #073763; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> High Income Households = 33% </span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #073763; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Male = 31% </span></b><br />
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Those more likely than average (44%) to <span style="color: #990000;"><b>Oppose</b></span><span style="color: black;"> the TPPA:</span><br />
<span style="background-color: #990000; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><b> Green Supporters = 82% </b></span><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #990000; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> NZ First Supporters = 73% </span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #990000; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Labour Supporters = 53% </span></b><br />
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Those more likely than average (32%) to say they <span style="color: #274e13;"><b>Don't Know</b></span><span style="color: black;"> were:</span><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #274e13; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Female = 38% </span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #274e13; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> National Supporters = 37% </span></b><br />
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While <b>Colmar Brunton</b> doesn't provide <i>full</i> demographic details, there's enough info here to see that <span style="color: #073763;"><b>National</b></span><span style="color: black;"> Supporters split <b>37</b> Support / <b>26</b> Oppose / <b>37</b> Don't Know. By no means a <i>wholehearted endorsement</i> from the Government's natural supporters. </span><br />
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And if (<i>sovereignty</i> issues aside) opposition to the TPPA can be taken as some sort of proxy for above average antagonism toward the current Government then it's intriguing that NZ First's support base is, once again, up there with Green Party voters. An overwhelming majority of NZF voters gave the thumbs down to the deal in both <b>Reid Research</b> (87%) and <b>Colmar Brunton</b> (73%) polls, while Greens split against the deal by 84% and 82% respectively. Similarly decisive majorities of NZF and Green supporters expressed belief in Nicky Hager's <i>Dirty Politics</i> revelations before the last Election, wanted Judith Collins to be stood down and refused to believe John Key over the SIS OIA release. And these are by no means the only issues where the respective support bases of both (supposedly mutually antagonistic) parties have converged.<br />
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Perhaps the twain - the morally-<i>liberal</i> Left and the morally-<i>conservative</i> Left - shall meet after all ? <br />
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<span style="background-color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"></span><br />swordfishhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11395947680707181966noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2650303453151499427.post-92172544678143058702015-11-13T11:23:00.000-08:002015-11-27T21:55:58.752-08:00Nurturing the Seeds of Distrust: Dirty Politics and the Public's Changing Perception of John Key's Leadership over the last four years<img src="http://www.radionz.co.nz/assets/news/16126/eight_col_CollinsKeyCompos.jpg?1399332754" height="400" width="640" /><br />
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<b>[Note: Danyl's latest offering at <i>The Dim Post</i> - in which he highlights John Key's popularity at the last Election via 2014 NZES data - has encouraged me to dig out and publish this <i>half-finished</i> Post from last year. Tragically, I've accumulated around 20 of these <i>partly-completed but never published </i>posts in draft form. Some I consciously abandoned as obsolete/overtaken by events, while others just withered on the vine as my attention and interest turned elsewhere. The preview date says <i>Thursday 24 August 2014 </i>- presumably the last time I modified the draft. That would be a couple of weeks after Hager's book came out in a blaze of publicity and three or so weeks before the 20 September Election]</b><br />
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The sudden eruption of the <i>Dirty Politics </i>scandal over the last two weeks has shocked many in the media and blogosphere into arguing that the doubts now surrounding John Key's honesty, integrity and character are entirely unprecedented. The underlying premise, often explicitly stated, but <i>always</i> at the very least implicit, is that, until now, Key has continued to enjoy absolutely stellar personal popularity ratings - ratings that supposedly haven't budged since he became Prime Minister.<br />
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It's a line of argument perhaps best exemplified by <i>One News</i> lead Political Reporter Corin Dann's suggestion a few days ago that: <i>"It's created a doubt about the Prime Minister which wasn't there before" </i>and (in the context of the Espiner interview) that Key <i>"really, really struggled and I think everybody for the first time, well, the mask was pulled away...".</i><br />
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Note: Other examples / and Quotes of current orthodoxy on Key here.<i> </i><br />
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In one very important sense they are, of course, correct. Nothing of this magnitude has hit Key before. <br />
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It would be a mistake, though, to assume that, up until the release of <i>Dirty Politics, </i>Key's image had remained entirely untarnished or that his popularity and broad support-base remained fully intact. The weight of polling evidence over recent years suggests that, in fact, Key's popularity reached an apex back in the middle-to-later stages of his first term and has been slowly but steadily eroding ever since. This is true both in terms of his <i>leadership qualities</i> and <i>Preferred PM</i> status. <br />
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I suspect, then, that these latest Nicky Hager and Whaledump revelations about Key and his entanglement in this long-running campaign of <i>Dirty Politics </i>(as unprecedented as they surely are) will simply <i>accentuate</i> underlying doubts that were already there in the minds of many voters. The question is: how decisive will the issue of honesty - as opposed to, say, competence - be in the voting booth ?<br />
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<b><span style="font-size: x-large;">Preferred PM Status</span></b><br />
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For all the hyperbolic rhetoric over recent years about Key's alleged <i>"unprecedented popularity", </i>the fact is he's been on a downward trajectory in the Preferred PM stakes ever since the 2009-11 period. If we focus first on the two polling companies (<i>One News Colmar-Brunton </i>and <i>3 News Reid Research</i>) that employ, as far as I'm concerned, the most appropriate methodology for this particular measurement, we find that, during his first term in Office (2009-11), the PM was consistently scoring in the late 40s to late 50s, and averaging 52% throughout this entire period (53% by 2011). In stark contrast, Key has, with few exceptions, been drifting in the late 30s to mid 40s since early-2012, averaging just 42% as Preferred PM, 11 points down on 2011.<br />
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True, he <i>has </i>enjoyed a <i>slight </i>revival over recent months, reaching the very <i>lowest </i>limits of his 2009-11 ratings in June this year (both <i>Colmar-Brunton</i> and <i>Reid Research </i>had him rising from 43% to 47%). But that's still well below his first term average. What's more, the most recent polls (even <i>before </i>Hager's revelations hit the bookshelves) suggest Key has been unable to retain that '<i>June Spring' </i>mini-surge of support (he dropped back to 44% in the Mid-July <i>3 News Reid Research, </i>remained there in Early-August and has now fallen to 41% in the latest <i>3 News</i> poll. Meanwhile, the latest <i>One News Colmar-Brunton </i>has Key falling back to 45%). My guess ?: Key was the <i>temporary </i>beneficiary of a series of media attacks on Opposition Leader David Cunliffe's integrity, criticism that reached a crescendo around May/June of this year. <br />
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Here are the relevant <i>3 News Reid Research</i> figures highlighting Key's Second Term decline as Preferred PM (2012-14), relative to his ratings in the First Term <br />
(2009-11):<br />
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<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> 3 News Reid Research - Preferred PM (John Key) </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #351c75; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> 2009 52, 51, 52, 56, 50, </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #073763; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> 2010 50, 49, 51, </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #0b5394; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> 2011 49, 52, 48, 51, 53, 55, 53, 50, </span><br />
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<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> 3 News Reid Research - Preferred PM (John Key) </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #351c75; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> 2012 46, 44, 41, 43, 41, 37 </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #073763; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> 2013 41, 38, 41, 42, 41, </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #0b5394; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> 2014 39, 43, 43, 47, 44, 44, 41, </span><br />
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And here are the <i>One News Colmar-Brunton</i> stats:<br />
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<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> One News Colmar-Brunton - Preferred PM (John Key) </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #351c75; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> 2009 51, 51, 51, 51, 50, 54, </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #073763; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> 2010 49, 48, 46, 45, 52, </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #0b5394; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> 2011 48, 55, 53, 54, 57, 59, 56, 55, 53, 52, </span><br />
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<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> One News Colmar-Brunton - Preferred PM (John Key) </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #351c75; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> 2012 48, 48, 45, 44, 42, 39, </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #073763; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> 2013 44, 39, 42, 41, 42, 43, </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #0b5394; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> 2014 43, 42, 43, 47, 48, 45, </span><br />
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<b><span style="font-size: x-large;">Leadership Qualities</span></b><br />
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Mirroring Key's decline as Preferred PM, the uniquely detailed <i>3 News Reid Research </i>Polls measuring various Leadership Qualities have revealed a slow but reasonably steady erosion of his broad standing among New Zealand voters over the last four years. For the purposes of this analysis, these leadership attributes can be divided into four groups: (1) Positive Attributes that continue to be measured by <i>Reid Research</i> in 2014, (2) Positive Attributes that <i>Reid Research </i>stopped measuring in 2013, (3) Negative Attributes that continue to be measured in 2014, (4) Negative Attributes that <i>Reid Research </i>stopped measuring in 2013. <br />
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<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> 3 News Reid Research - Leadership Attributes </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #cccccc; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: black;">(1) Positive Attributes still measured in 2014 (John Key) </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: black; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> High Point Now </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #351c75; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> More Honest mid 60s% early 40s% </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #741b47; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Sound Judgement late 70s% late 60s% </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #073763; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Good in Crisis early 80s% late 60s% </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #38761d; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Understands Econ early 80s% late 60s% </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #990000; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Capable Leader late 80s% late 70s% </span><br />
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<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> 3 News Reid Research - Leadership Attributes </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #cccccc; color: black; font-size: x-large;"> (2) Positive Attributes discontinued in 2013 (John Key) </span><br />
<span style="background-color: black; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> High Point Last Poll </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #0b5394; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Lots of Personality late 70s% early 60s% </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #674ea7; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Down to Earth late 70s% 60% </span><br />
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<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> 3 News Reid Research - Leadership Attributes </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #cccccc; color: black; font-size: x-large;"> (3) Negative Attributes still measured in 2014 (John Key) </span><br />
<span style="background-color: black; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Low Point Now </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #38761d; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Out of Touch early 30s% early 50s% </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #351c75; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Talks Down early 20s% early 40s% </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #741b47; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Narrow Minded under 20% early 40s% </span><br />
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<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> 3 News Reid Research - Leadership Attributes </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #cccccc; color: black; font-size: x-large;"> (4) Negative Attributes discontinued in 2013 (John Key) </span><br />
<span style="background-color: black; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Low Point Last Poll </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #073763; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Style over Substance mid 30s% 50% </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #741b47; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Too Inflexible early 20s% 40% </span><br />
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<span style="background-color: #741b47; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"></span><br />
Once overwhelmingly positive towards Key, the New Zealand public have slowly<br />
moved to a more conflicted position.<br />
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Note: More argument here. Possible importance of Key's determination on Asset Sales for the significant increase in Too Inflexible/Narrow Minded. Possible importance of growing concerns about Inequality for significant rise in Out of Touch measurement. <br />
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<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> 3 News Reid Research - August 2014 </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #cccccc; color: black; font-size: x-large;"> Does National's Election Campaign rely too heavily on the PM ? </span><br />
<span style="background-color: black; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Yes No Don't Know </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #351c75; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> All 68% 28% 4% </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #073763; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Nat Voters 48% No Data No Data </span><br />
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<b><span style="font-size: x-large;">Valence Issues</span></b><br />
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A tentative word of caution, though.<br />
Despite the slow but very real decline in his overall standing, John Key's ratings on some of the fundamental valence issues - <i>capable leader / sound judgement / good in a crisis / understands the economic problems facing New Zealand - </i>remain pretty high. Ten to fifteen points down from their apex a few years ago, but still pretty healthy.<br />
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Note: Table with results of past Polls suggesting National more trusted than Labour on the Economy here (<i>Fairfax Research Poll</i> July 2011: Best plan to fix the economy Nat 49% / Lab 17%. <i>Colmar Brunton</i> July 2011: Most trusted to manage the economy Nat 53% / Lab 24%. <i>Herald-DigiPoll</i> Oct 2009: Financial crisis handling by Key Government Good 78% / Poor 20%. <i>Herald-DigiPoll</i> Nov 2008: Which party would better handle New Zealand economy as the world faces a downturn Nat 50% / Lab 41%. <i>Colmar Brunton</i> Oct 2008: Blame for New Zealand's economic strife International Forces 35% / Clark Govt 14% / Both 49%. <i>Colmar Brunton</i> Oct 2008: Who do you most trust to manage the economy Key 48% / Clark 41%).<br />
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Note: Key's popularity revolves not so much around public perceptions of <i>honesty </i>as around perceptions of basic <i>competence</i>. His honesty ratings are down more than 20 percentage points since 2009. And yet the Nats have generally remained high in the polls. Why ? Might there be a section of National voters who are prepared to overlook their increasing doubts about Key's honesty / integrity and degree of pragmatism, flexibility and One Nation 'egalitarianism' because they still rate him as capable and decisive on leadership and economic management. So, holding their noses and pragmatically placing perceived economic / leadership competence above concerns about his personal integrity. In which case, campaigns built around his dishonesty / immersion in Dirty Politics may not resonate with softly-aligned Tories ? Or are soft Nats still the True-Believers ?<br />
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<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3;"></span><br />swordfishhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11395947680707181966noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2650303453151499427.post-73444119625483078662015-08-10T13:01:00.000-07:002015-08-10T14:23:51.865-07:00Hiroshima<img alt="Memorial for Hiroshima" class="attachment-large" src="http://www.pewresearch.org/files/2015/07/FT_15.07.31_hiroshima_museum.jpg" height="400" width="640" /><br />
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As you'll almost certainly be aware (given the fairly extensive publicity), it's 70 years since the US dropped atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki.<br />
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Here's a snapshot of US and Japanese public opinion on the issue - both then and now.<br />
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(All Polls involve a representative sample from throughout the US or Japan, unless otherwise stated)<br />
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<strong><span style="font-size: x-large;">US Public Opinion - Then</span></strong><br />
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<strong><span style="color: #073763; font-size: x-large;">(1) Gallup Poll (Aug 1945)</span></strong><br />
<span style="color: black; font-size: large;">(Representative sample of 1000 Americans, conducted August 10-15 1945 - immediately after the bombing)</span><br />
<strong>Question:</strong><em><strong> </strong>Do you Approve or Disapprove of using the new atomic bomb on Japanese cities ?</em><br />
<strong><span style="color: #351c75; font-size: large;">Approve<span style="color: black;"> 85%</span></span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="color: #990000; font-size: large;">Disapprove<span style="color: black;"> 10%</span></span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="color: #38761d; font-size: large;">No Opinion<span style="color: black;"> 5%</span></span></strong><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">(Source suggests little variation of opinion among various demographics, although <em>slightly</em> <strong>higher</strong> <span style="color: #351c75;"><strong>Approval</strong></span><span style="color: black;"> of the bombing among both <strong>Males</strong> and the <strong>University-Educated</strong>)</span></span><br />
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<strong><span style="color: #741b47; font-size: x-large;">(2) National Opinion Research Centre Poll (Sep 1945)</span></strong><br />
<span style="color: black;"><strong>Question: </strong><em>If you had been the one to decide whether or not to use the atomic bomb against Japan, which one of these things do you think you would have done ?</em></span><br />
<strong><span style="color: #351c75; font-size: large;">Wiped out as many Cities as possible <span style="color: black;">23%</span><span style="color: #351c75;">*</span></span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="color: #073763; font-size: large;">Bombed One City at a Time <span style="color: black;">44%</span><span style="color: #0b5394;">**</span></span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;">(Combined=67%)</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="color: #990000; font-size: large;"><span style="color: #b45f06;">Bombed where there were No People</span><span style="color: black;"> 26%</span></span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="color: #990000; font-size: large;">Refused to Use<span style="color: black;"> 4%</span></span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="color: #38761d; font-size: large;">Don't Know<span style="color: black;"> 2%</span></span></strong><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><strong><span style="color: #351c75;">*</span> </strong>Extreme Hawkish Position=Belief that US should have dropped atomic bombs on many Japanese cities</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #0b5394;">**</span> Supports the action taken=Bombing Hiroshima and then Nagasaki</span><br />
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<strong><span style="color: #351c75; font-size: x-large;">(3) Roper-Fortune Poll (Nov 1945)</span></strong><br />
<span style="color: black;">Answers to <strong>Question One:</strong> (Wording of Question not given by Source)</span><br />
<strong><span style="color: #073763; font-size: large;">We should have quickly used many more of the bombs before Japan had a chance to surrender<span style="color: black;"> 23%</span><span style="color: #351c75;">*</span></span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="color: #0b5394; font-size: large;">We should have used the two bombs on cities, just as we did<span style="color: black;"> 54%</span><span style="color: #0b5394;">**</span></span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;">(Combined=77%)</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #b45f06;">We should have dropped one on some unpopulated region, to show the Japanese its power, and dropped the second one on a city only if they hadn't surrendered after the first one</span> 14%</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #990000;">We should not have used any atomic bombs at all</span> 5%</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #38761d;">Don't Know</span> 6%</span></strong><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><strong><span style="color: #351c75;">*</span> </strong>Extreme Hawkish Position=Belief that US should have dropped atomic bombs on many Japanese cities</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #0b5394;">**</span> Supports the action taken=Bombing Hiroshima and then Nagasaki</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">(In contrast to the <strong>Gallup Poll </strong>of Aug 1945, the <strong>Roper-Fortune </strong>suggested the more <strong>Highly-Educated </strong>favoured more <em>restraint</em> in using the bomb, and that the <strong>Lowest Income group </strong>was the most <em>hawkish</em> with 30% favouring the 'many bombs' option. <strong>Black Americans </strong>constituted a major exception amongst the poor, being more dovish)</span><br />
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Answers to <strong>Question Two:</strong><br />
<em>The Bombing Shortened the War by:</em><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #20124d;">More than a year</span> 18%</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #0b5394;">6 months to a year</span> 36%</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #b45f06;">2 - 5 months</span> 17%</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #990000;">1 month or less</span> 10%</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #741b47;">Did <em>not</em> shorten War</span> 8% </span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #38761d;">Don't Know</span> 11%</span></strong><br />
<span style="color: black; font-size: x-large;"><strong></strong></span><br />
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<strong><span style="font-size: x-large;">US Public Opinion - Now</span></strong><br />
Be aware that some of these Poll options are slanted - solidly grounded in a particular interpretation of the US rationale behind the atomic bombing. For example, the 1965 Harris Poll <em>("to save American lives")</em>, one of the two Gallup Polls of 1995 <em>("to force Japan to surrender") </em>and so on. These privilege the <em>Truman Orthodoxy</em> favoured by the Orthodox School of American scholars (atomic bombing was necessary to save the lives of American servicemen from what might have been a costly invasion / to force Japanese surrender) and ignore the other side of a very lively, on-going historiographical debate - namely, the Revisionist School that argues that US leaders were well aware that Japan was near defeat and surrender, that they hence simply dropped the bombs on a large civilian population for ulterior motives and that this constitutes a massive war crime / genocide / crime against humanity. Regardless of the accuracy of their claims, the Orthodox School has been criticised for viewing the bombing in narrow military terms, oblivious to the broader significance of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in human history. <br />
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The range of interpretations in terms of US motivations / rationale include: To avoid US casualties and force surrender (the <em>Truman Orthodoxy</em>), to revenge Pearl Harbour and Japanese atrocities against POWs, to intimidate the Soviets with an eye towards establishing America's post-war supremacy, to end the war with Japan before the Soviets entered (these last two constitute the <em>Atomic Diplomacy</em> thesis), to use the population of Hiroshima and Nagasaki as a test lab for the new atomic weaponry (the <em>Human Guinea-Pig</em> Interpretation), traditional US anti-Asian racism (the <em>Racial Interpretation</em>) and so on. (although I should add that this doesn't even remotely do justice to the complexity of some of the theses put forward over the years).<br />
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<strong><span style="color: #274e13; font-size: x-large;">(1) Harris Poll (1965)</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #351c75;">US was Right to drop the atomic bomb on Japan to save American lives</span> 70%</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #990000;">Regret it</span> 17%</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #38761d;">Don't Know</span> 13%</span></strong><br />
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<strong><span style="color: #0b5394; font-size: x-large;">(2) Harris-Asahi Shimbun Poll (1971)</span></strong><br />
<em>Bombings of Hiroshima / Nagasaki</em><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #351c75;">Could Not have been Helped</span> 64%</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #990000;">Were a Mistake</span> 21%</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #38761d;">Don't Know</span> 15%</span></strong><br />
(These findings were widely publicised in Japan and came as a profound shock to the Japanese public) <br />
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<strong><span style="color: #741b47; font-size: x-large;">(3) Harris Poll (1986)</span></strong><br />
<em>Bombings of Hiroshima / Nagasaki</em><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><strong><span style="color: #351c75;">Could Not have been Helped</span> 67%</strong></span><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #990000;">Were a Mistake</span> 24%</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #38761d;">Don't Know</span> 9%</span></strong><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">(somewhat <em>lower</em> <strong>approval </strong>/ <em>higher </em><strong>disapproval</strong> = among women, younger age-groups and non-whites - although even among these demographics, absolute majorities still <strong>approved</strong> (ie Chose the <em>Could Not have been Helped</em> option). </span><br />
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<em>Attitudes to Pearl Harbour:</em><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #351c75;">Entertain ill-feeling towards Japan about Pearl Harbour</span> 43%</span></strong><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">(No other data provided)</span><br />
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<strong><span style="color: #351c75; font-size: x-large;">(4) Gallup Poll (1990)</span></strong><br />
<strong>Question:</strong> <em>As you may know, the United States dropped atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in August 1945 near the end of World War II. Looking back, would you say you approve or disapprove of using the atomic bomb on Japanese cities in 1945 ?</em><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #0b5394;">Approve </span>53%</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #990000;">Disapprove</span> 41%</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #38761d;">No Opinion</span> 6%</span></strong><br />
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<strong><span style="color: #134f5c; font-size: x-large;">(5) Gallup Poll (1991)</span></strong><br />
<strong>Question: </strong>Same as 1990 Gallup Poll<br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #0b5394;">Approve</span> 53%</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #990000;">Disapprove</span> 41%</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #38761d;">No Opinion</span> 6%</span></strong><br />
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<strong><span style="color: #741b47; font-size: x-large;">(6) New York Times-CBS News-Tokyo Broadcasting Poll (1991)</span></strong><br />
<em>Atomic Bombing of Japan was:</em><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #351c75;">An Acceptable Measure to End War</span> 63%</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #990000;">A Wanton act of Mass Slaughter</span> 29%</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #38761d;">No Opinion</span> 8%</span></strong><br />
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<em>Apology:</em><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #990000;">US Govt should formally apologise to Japan and its people for dropping atomic bombs</span> 16%</span></strong><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">(No other data given)</span><br />
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<em>What if Japan apologises for the attack on Pearl Harbour ?:</em><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #783f04;">Then US should apologise for dropping atomic bombs</span> 34%</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #0b5394;">Should Not</span> 42%</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #38761d;">No Opinion</span> 24%</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"></span></strong><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">(Main Source briefly mentions a fourth question on whether or not respondents accepted the <em>'Racial Interpretation'</em> (ie Racism motivated 1945 atomic bombing of Japan). 8% of American respondents accepted this interpretation)</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">(<strong>Note: </strong>Some sources call this the <em>'Detroit Free Press Poll'</em>)</span><br />
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<strong><span style="color: #0b5394; font-size: x-large;">(7) Gallup Poll (1994)</span></strong><br />
<strong>Question:</strong> Same as 1990 Gallup Poll <br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #351c75;">Approve</span> 55%</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #990000;">Disapprove</span> 39%</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #38761d;">No Opinion</span> 6%</span></strong><br />
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<strong><span style="color: #351c75; font-size: x-large;">(8) Gallup Poll (1995)</span></strong><br />
<strong>Question:</strong> Same as 1990 Gallup Poll<br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #0b5394;">Approve</span> 59%</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #990000;">Disapprove </span>35%</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #38761d;">No Opinion</span> 6%</span></strong><br />
(<strong>Black Americans</strong> = 57% Disapprove / 31% Approve, <strong>Women</strong> = 47% Disapprove / 40% Approve,<strong> Young Adults </strong>= 49% Disapprove / 46% Approve, <strong>Poor </strong>= 44% Disapprove / 49% Approve, <strong>White Americans</strong> = 31% Disapprove / 64% Approve, <strong>Wealthy </strong>= 27% Disapprove / 69% Approve, <strong>Men</strong> = 23% Disapprove / 74% Approve, <strong>Elderly</strong> = 15% Disapprove / 80% Approve)<br />
<strong>Question: </strong><em>Do you think dropping the atomic bombs saved American lives by shortening the War, or not ?</em><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #0b5394;">Yes</span> 86%</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #990000;">No</span> 7%</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #38761d;">No Opinion</span> 7%</span></strong><br />
<strong>Question:</strong> <em>Do you think that dropping the atomic bombs saved more Japanese lives than would have been lost if the War had continued, or did dropping the bombs COST more Japanese lives ?</em><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #0b5394;">Saved</span> 40%</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #990000;">Cost</span> 45%</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #38761d;">No Opinion</span> 15%</span></strong><br />
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<span style="color: #134f5c; font-size: x-large;"><strong>(9) Gallup Poll (1995)</strong></span><br />
<em><span style="color: black;">What would you have done ?:</span></em><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #0b5394;">Would have dropped the atom bomb</span> 44%</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #990000;">Would have tried some other way to force Japan to surrender</span> 49%</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #38761d;">Unsure</span> 7%</span></strong><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">(Substantial two-to-one majorities of <strong>Women</strong>, <strong>Black Americans</strong> and <strong>Hispanics</strong> chose the <em>Would have tried some other way</em> option. In contrast, <strong>White Americans</strong> split evenly, while <strong>Men</strong> favoured dropping the bomb by a clear majority)</span><br />
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<em>Should US formally apologise to Japan for dropping atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki?:</em><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #0b5394;">No</span> 73%</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #990000;">Yes</span> 20%</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #38761d;">Don't Know</span> 7%</span></strong><br />
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<strong><span style="color: #741b47; font-size: x-large;">(10) Gallup-USA Today Poll (1998)</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="color: #990000; font-size: large;"><span style="color: black;">Half of those Polled</span> believed Truman should have pursued alternatives</span></strong><br />
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<strong><span style="color: #274e13; font-size: x-large;">(11) Gallup Poll (2005)</span></strong><br />
<strong>Question:</strong> Same as 1990 Gallup Poll<br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #351c75;">Approve </span>57%</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #990000;">Disapprove</span> 38%</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #38761d;">No Opinion</span> 5%</span></strong><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">(<span style="color: #351c75;"><strong>Approve</strong></span><strong><span style="color: black;">:</span></strong><span style="color: black;"> <strong>Gender</strong>: Male 73%, Female 42% / <strong>Party</strong>: Rep 73%, Ind 53%, Dem 47% / <strong>Party-by-Gender</strong>: <em>Republican </em>Male 87%, Female 60% / <em>Independent</em> Male 71%, Female 31% / <em>Democrat </em>Male 63%, Female 37% / <strong>Age: </strong>Under-50s 53%, 50+ 63%)</span></span><br />
<strong>Question: </strong><em>Do you think dropping the atomic bombs saved American lives by shortening the War or not ?</em><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #351c75;">Yes</span> 80%</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #990000;">No</span> 16%</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #38761d;">No Opinion</span> 4%</span></strong><br />
<strong>Question:</strong> <em>Do you think that dropping the atomic bombs saved more Japanese lives than would have been lost if the War had continued, or did dropping the bombs COST more Japanese lives ?</em><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #073763;"><span style="color: #351c75;">Saved</span> </span>41%</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #990000;">Cost</span> 47%</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #38761d;">No Opinion</span> 12%</span></strong><br />
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<strong><span style="color: #134f5c; font-size: x-large;">(12) NHK Poll (2005)</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;">56% say <span style="color: #20124d;">Dropping Bombs on Hiroshima / Nagasaki was based on right judgement</span></span></strong><br />
<span style="color: black; font-size: large;">(Age 60 + = 70%, Age 20-39 = 42%)</span><br />
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<strong><span style="color: #0b5394; font-size: x-large;">(13) Quinnipiac University Poll (2009)</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;">1945 Atomic Bombing of Japan</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #351c75;">Support</span> 61%</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #990000;">Oppose</span> 22%</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #38761d;">Undecided</span> 16%</span></strong><br />
(<span style="color: #351c75;"><strong>Support</strong></span><span style="color: black;">: Age 55+ = 73%, Age under 34 = 50%)</span><br />
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<strong><span style="color: #351c75; font-size: x-large;">(14) Pew Research Centre Poll (2015)</span></strong><br />
<strong>Question: </strong><em>As you may know, the United States dropped atomic bombs on the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in August 1945 near the end of World War II. Looking back, would you say using the atomic bomb on Japanese cities in 1945 was justified or was it not justified ?</em><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #073763;">Justified</span> 56%</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #990000;">Not</span> 34%</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #38761d;">Don't Know</span> 10%</span></strong><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">(<span style="color: #073763;"><strong>Justified</strong></span><span style="color: black;"><strong>: Gender</strong>: Male 62%, Female 50% / <strong>Party</strong>: Rep 74%, Dem 52% / <strong>Age</strong>: 65+ 70%, 18-29 47% / <strong>Ethnicity</strong>: White 65%, Non-White (including Hispanics) 40%)</span></span><br />
<strong>Question: </strong><em>Overall, do you think that Japan has apologised sufficiently for its actions during World War II, that Japan has not apologised sufficiently, or do you think no apology is necessary ?</em><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #073763;">Not Sufficiently</span> 29%</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #b45f06;">Sufficiently</span> 37%</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #990000;">No apology necessary</span> 24%</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #38761d;">Don't Know</span> 10%</span></strong><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">(73% of Younger Americans chose either <strong>Sufficiently</strong> or <strong>No apology necessary </strong>compared to 50% of Older Americans) </span><br />
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<strong><span style="font-size: x-large;">Japanese Public Opinion - Then</span></strong><br />
We need, of course, to be extremely cautious about the results of polls and surveys conducted by the victors in war on the defeated or by the occupiers of a country on the occupied. As the United States Strategic Bombing Survey's report frankly admitted, these figures almost certainly underestimated hostility towards the US. The shock of the atomic bombing, the shock of final defeat, the very real threat of widespread starvation and weariness of the American occupiers no doubt greatly affected replies. The new censorship regime of the Occupation authorities went into effect in September 1945 and severely restricted information on and criticism of the atomic bombing and the devastation it wrought on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. <br />
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<strong><span style="color: #741b47; font-size: x-large;">(1) United States Strategic Bombing Survey (Oct 1945)</span></strong><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">(Survey of 5000 Japanese Respondents, including a sub-sample of Hiroshima and Nagasaki Residents)</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><strong><span style="color: #660000;">Hated Americans for having used the atomic bombs</span> </strong></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><strong>12% </strong>(Entire Sample), <strong>19% </strong>(Hiroshima and Nagasaki respondents only)</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><em>Where does responsibility for using the bombs lie ?:</em></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><strong><span style="color: #351c75;">Japan's Fault</span> 35% </strong>(Entire Sample)</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><strong><span style="color: #0b5394;">Neither side responsible (simply a consequence of war)</span> 29% </strong>(Entire Sample)</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">(No more data given by source)</span><br />
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<strong><span style="color: #20124d; font-size: x-large;">(2) United States Strategic Bombing Survey (1947)</span></strong><br />
<em><span style="font-size: large;">Reaction of Hiroshima and Nagasaki respondents to US atomic bombing:</span></em><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #990000;">Terror</span> 47%</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #351c75;">Admiration (impressed by scientific power behind the bomb)</span> 26%</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">Anger (Atomic Bomb is cruel/inhuman/barbarous)</span> 17%</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #b45f06;">Fear (for own life)</span> 16%</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #38761d;">Jealousy (why couldn't Japan make such a bomb ?)</span> 3%</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #a64d79;">Hatred of US</span> 2%</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #134f5c;">No Response</span> 11%</span></strong><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">(<strong>Note:</strong> It beggars belief that, for 26% of Hiroshima and Nagasaki residents, the strongest reaction to the atomic annihilation of their city was "Admiration" (or "Jealousy" = 3%). These figures might better be interpreted as the proportion of residents who either feared the US occupying authorities or were particularly ambitious to get on under the new regime. You also have to wonder at a US regime that, having dropped atomic bombs on two cities, then interviews surviving victims, asking how they felt about it and includes "Admiration" and "Jealousy" as two viable options)</span><br />
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<strong><span style="font-size: x-large;">Japanese Public Opinion - Now </span></strong><br />
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<strong><span style="color: #351c75; font-size: x-large;">(1) Mainichi Shimbun Poll (1970)</span></strong><br />
<em><span style="color: black;">1945 Atomic Bomb</span></em><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #b45f06;">Moderately Disapprove of its use</span> 14%</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #990000;">Should never have been used on Japan</span> 61%</span></strong><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">(No further data given)</span><br />
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<em>Who is to Blame ?:</em><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #0b5394;">Blame Japanese Leaders</span> 19%</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #990000;">Blame US Leaders</span> 38%</span></strong><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">(No further data from source)</span><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"></span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="color: #38761d; font-size: x-large;">(2) Chugoku-Shimbun Poll (1971)</span></strong><br />
(Poll of Hiroshima Residents only)<br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #351c75;">Blame Japanese Govt and Military</span> 10%</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #990000;">Blame US President Truman personally</span> 10%</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #741b47;">Blame US Govt and Military</span> 21%</span></strong><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">(Source gives no indication of the options chosen by remaining 59%)</span><br />
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<strong><span style="color: #741b47; font-size: x-large;">(3) New York Times-CBS News-Tokyo Broadcasting Poll (1991)</span></strong><br />
<span style="color: #351c75;"><em><span style="color: black; font-size: large;">Atomic Bombing of Japan was:</span></em></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #351c75;"><strong>An Acceptable Measure to End War</strong></span><strong> 29%</strong></span><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #990000;">A Wanton act of Mass Slaughter</span> 64%</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #38761d;">No Opinion</span> 7%</span></strong><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">(Almost the exact reverse of US opinion in the same Poll)</span><br />
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<em><span style="font-size: large;">View of US as a result:</span></em><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #990000;">Hold it against the US for dropping atomic bombs</span> 50%</span></strong><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">(No other data given)</span><br />
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<em><span style="font-size: large;">Apology:</span></em><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #741b47;">US Govt should formally apologise to Japan and its people for dropping atomic bombs</span> 73%</span></strong><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">(38% of Japanese Respondents in this Poll accepted the <em>'Racial Interpretation' </em>of the bombing / 31% rejected it)</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">(<strong>Note:</strong> Some sources call this the <em>'Detroit Free Press Poll'</em>)</span><br />
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<strong><span style="color: #073763; font-size: x-large;">(4) Asahi-Shimbun Poll (2005)</span></strong><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">(Large-Scale 13,000+ survey of surviving Hiroshima and Nagasaki victims (<em>Hibakusha</em>). About 60% from Hiroshima/40% from Nagasaki)</span><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #0b5394;">Both US <em>and</em> Japan to Blame</span> "Nearly Half"</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #990000;">US solely responsible</span> 28%</span></strong><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">(Source gives no indication of choice of remainder)</span><br />
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<strong><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: #351c75;">(5) Pew Research Centre Poll (2015)</span> </span></strong><br />
<strong>Question:</strong> <em>As you may know, the United States dropped atomic bombs on the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in August 1945 near the end of World War II. Looking back, would you say using the atomic bomb on Japanese cities in 1945 was justified or was it not justified ?</em><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #073763;">Justified</span> 14%</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #990000;">Not</span> 79%</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #38761d;">Don't Know</span> 7%</span></strong><br />
<strong>Question:</strong> <em>Overall, do you think that Japan has apologised sufficiently for its actions during World War II, that Japan has not apologised sufficiently, or do you think no apology is necessary ?</em><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #073763;">Not Sufficiently</span> 28%</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #b45f06;">Sufficiently</span> 48%</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #990000;">No apology necessary</span> 15%</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #38761d;">Don't Know</span> 9%</span></strong><br />
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<strong><span style="font-size: x-large;">Surveys of US and Japanese Students</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: x-large;"></span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="color: #741b47; font-size: x-large;">(1) Polls of Japanese Junior High School Students in Hiroshima (1987) (1989) (2005)</span></strong><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><em>1945 Atomic Bombing:</em></span><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #073763;">Could Not be helped because it was wartime / was needed to hasten the end of war</span> </span></strong><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><strong>15% </strong>(1987), <strong>21% </strong>(1989), <strong>25%</strong> (2005)</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><strong><span style="color: #990000;">Should Not be forgiven for humanitarian reasons</span> 70% </strong>(1987), <strong>55% </strong>(1989)</span><br />
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<strong><span style="color: #0b5394; font-size: x-large;">(2) Survey of US and Japanese University Students (2005)</span></strong><br />
<em><span style="font-size: large;">1945 Atomic Bombing: </span></em><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><strong><span style="color: #351c75;">Could Not be helped (required in order to save American lives)</span> 71% </strong>(US), <strong>17% </strong>(Japan)</span><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"></span></strong><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><strong><span style="color: #990000;">Accept racial interpretation of bombing (US racist motives)</span> 35% </strong>(US), <strong>45% </strong>(Japan)</span><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"></span></strong><br />
<em><span style="font-size: large;">Reasons for US dropping Atomic Bombs on Japan:</span></em><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;">(Japanese Students)</span></strong><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><strong>Top choice: </strong>To test the destructive power of the atomic bomb</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><strong>2nd choice: </strong>To pressure the Soviet Union by a display of power</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><strong>3rd choice:</strong> To end the War before Soviet entry (into US / Japanese Theatre of War)</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"></span><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;">(US Students) </span></strong><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><strong>Top choice (overwhelming majority):</strong> To avoid US casualties</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><strong>2nd choice: </strong>To pay back for Pearl Harbour</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"></span><br />
<em><span style="font-size: large;">Should US apologise to Japan for 1945 Atomic Bombing:</span></em><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">(asked of US Students only)</span><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #990000;">Yes</span> 39%</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #b45f06;">Yes but only if Japan apologises for Pearl Harbour</span> 32%</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;">( = 71%)</span></strong><br />
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<span style="color: #38761d;"><em></em></span><br />swordfishhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11395947680707181966noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2650303453151499427.post-5924408036252479872015-08-01T19:19:00.000-07:002015-08-01T20:25:17.869-07:00Govt Vs Oppo - Opinion Polls since 2014 Election<img src="http://d15h3ts9pue03r.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/vote-polls-4001.jpg" height="424" width="640" /><br />
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<br />
<strong><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">Oppo</span> =<span style="color: #666666;"> (Lab+Green+NZF)</span></span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: #0b5394;">Govt</span> = <span style="color: #666666;">(Nat+ACT+Maori+UF)</span></span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: x-large;"></span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: #990000;">Broad</span> = <span style="color: #444444;">(Oppo+Mana)</span></span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: #351c75;">Broad</span> = <span style="color: #444444;">(Govt+Cons)</span></span></strong><br />
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<strong><span style="color: #cccccc; font-size: x-large;">------------------------------------------------------------------------------------</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #990000;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">Oppo</span> </span><span style="color: #cc0000;"><span style="color: #073763;"><span style="color: #0b5394;">Govt</span> </span> <span style="color: #990000;">Broad </span> </span><span style="color: #351c75;"> </span><span style="color: #351c75;">Broad </span></span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="color: #444444; font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: #cccccc;">-------------------------------------------------------------------------------</span><span style="color: #cccccc;">-----</span></span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="color: #999999; font-size: x-large;">2015</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="color: #cccccc; font-size: x-large;">July</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="color: #cccccc; font-size: x-large;"></span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="color: #38761d; font-size: x-large;">3 News Reid Research</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: x-large;"><em><span style="color: #38761d;">Late July</span> </em> <span style="color: #990000;"> </span><span style="color: #cc0000;">51</span> <span style="color: #0b5394;">48</span> <span style="color: #cc0000;"> </span><span style="color: #990000;">51</span> <span style="color: #351c75;">49</span></span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="color: #351c75; font-size: x-large;"></span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="color: #741b47; font-size: x-large;">One News Colmar Brunton</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="color: #741b47; font-size: x-large;"><em>Mid July</em> <span style="color: black;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">52</span> <span style="color: #0b5394;">48</span> <span style="color: #990000;">53</span> </span><span style="color: #351c75;">48</span></span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: x-large;"></span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="color: #134f5c; font-size: x-large;">Roy Morgan</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: x-large;"><em><span style="color: #134f5c;">Early July</span></em> <span style="color: #cc0000;">52</span> <span style="color: #0b5394;">45</span> <span style="color: #990000;">52</span> <span style="color: #351c75;">47</span></span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: x-large;"></span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="color: #cccccc; font-size: x-large;">---------------------------------------------------------------------------------</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="color: #cccccc; font-size: x-large;">June</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: x-large;"></span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="color: #134f5c; font-size: x-large;">Roy Morgan</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: x-large;"><em><span style="color: #134f5c;">Mid June</span></em> <span style="color: #cc0000;">46</span> <span style="color: #0b5394;">52 </span> <span style="color: #990000;">46 </span> <span style="color: #351c75;">53</span></span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="color: #cccccc; font-size: x-large;">----------------------------------------------------------------------------------</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="color: #cccccc; font-size: x-large;">May</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: x-large;"></span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="color: #38761d; font-size: x-large;">3 News Reid Research</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: x-large;"><em><span style="color: #38761d;">Late May</span></em> <span style="color: #cc0000;">50</span> <span style="color: #0b5394;">48 </span> <span style="color: #990000;">50 </span> <span style="color: #351c75;">50</span></span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: x-large;"></span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="color: #741b47; font-size: x-large;">One News Colmar Brunton</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: x-large;"><em><span style="color: #741b47;">Late May</span> </em><span style="color: #cc0000;">48</span> <span style="color: #0b5394;">50 </span> <span style="color: #990000;">48</span> <span style="color: #351c75;">52</span></span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: x-large;"></span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="color: #134f5c; font-size: x-large;">Roy Morgan</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: x-large;"><em><span style="color: #134f5c;">Early May</span></em> <span style="color: #cc0000;">42</span> <span style="color: #0b5394;">56 </span> <span style="color: #990000;">42 </span> <span style="color: #351c75;">57</span></span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="color: #cccccc; font-size: x-large;">---------------------------------------------------------------------------------</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="color: #cccccc; font-size: x-large;">April</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: x-large;"></span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="color: #cc0000; font-size: x-large;">Herald-DigiPoll</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: x-large;"><em><span style="color: #cc0000;">Late April</span></em> <span style="color: #cc0000;">46 </span> <span style="color: #0b5394;"> 53</span> <span style="color: #990000;">46 </span> <span style="color: #351c75;">54</span></span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: x-large;"></span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="color: #134f5c; font-size: x-large;">Roy Morgan</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: x-large;"><em><span style="color: #134f5c;">Mid April</span></em> <span style="color: #cc0000;">49 </span> <span style="color: #0b5394;">48 </span> <span style="color: #990000;">49 </span> <span style="color: #351c75;">49</span></span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: x-large;"></span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="color: #741b47; font-size: x-large;">One News Colmar Brunton</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: x-large;"><em><span style="color: #741b47;">Mid April</span></em> <span style="color: #cc0000;">47</span> <span style="color: #0b5394;">50 </span> <span style="color: #990000;">48 </span> <span style="color: #351c75;">52</span></span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="color: #cccccc; font-size: x-large;">---------------------------------------------------------------------------------</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="color: #cccccc; font-size: x-large;">March</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: x-large;"></span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="color: #134f5c; font-size: x-large;">Roy Morgan</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: x-large;"><em><span style="color: #134f5c;">Early March</span></em> <span style="color: #cc0000;">48</span> <span style="color: #0b5394;">50 </span> <span style="color: #990000;">48 </span> <span style="color: #351c75;">51</span></span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="color: #cccccc; font-size: x-large;">---------------------------------------------------------------------------------</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="color: #cccccc; font-size: x-large;">February</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: x-large;"></span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="color: #741b47; font-size: x-large;">One News Colmar Brunton</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: x-large;"><em><span style="color: #741b47;">Mid February</span></em> <span style="color: #cc0000;">47</span> <span style="color: #0b5394;">51 </span> <span style="color: #990000;">47 </span> <span style="color: #351c75;">52</span></span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: x-large;"></span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="color: #134f5c; font-size: x-large;">Roy Morgan</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: x-large;"><em><span style="color: #134f5c;">Early February</span></em> <span style="color: #cc0000;">48 </span> <span style="color: #0b5394;"> 50</span> <span style="color: #990000;">48 </span> <span style="color: #351c75;">52</span></span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="color: #cccccc; font-size: x-large;">---------------------------------------------------------------------------------</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="color: #cccccc; font-size: x-large;">January</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: x-large;"></span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="color: #38761d; font-size: x-large;">3 News Reid Research</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: x-large;"><em><span style="color: #38761d;">Late January</span></em> <span style="color: #cc0000;">45 </span> <span style="color: #0b5394;">52 </span> <span style="color: #990000;">46 </span> <span style="color: #351c75;">54</span></span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: x-large;"></span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="color: #134f5c; font-size: x-large;">Roy Morgan</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: x-large;"><em><span style="color: #134f5c;">Mid January</span></em> <span style="color: #cc0000;">43 </span> <span style="color: #0b5394;">55 </span> <span style="color: #990000;">43</span> <span style="color: #351c75;">57</span></span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="color: #cccccc; font-size: x-large;">--------------------------------------------------------------------------------</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="color: #999999; font-size: x-large;">2014</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="color: #cccccc; font-size: x-large;">December</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: x-large;"></span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="color: #cc0000; font-size: x-large;">Herald-DigiPoll</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: x-large;"><em><span style="color: #cc0000;">Mid December</span></em> <span style="color: #cc0000;">44 </span> <span style="color: #0b5394;">52 </span> <span style="color: #990000;">44</span> <span style="color: #351c75;">55</span></span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: x-large;"></span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="color: #134f5c; font-size: x-large;">Roy Morgan</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: x-large;"><em><span style="color: #134f5c;">Early December</span></em> <span style="color: #cc0000;">46 </span> <span style="color: #0b5394;">50</span> <span style="color: #990000;">47</span> <span style="color: #351c75;">52</span></span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="color: #cccccc; font-size: x-large;">--------------------------------------------------------------------------------</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="color: #cccccc; font-size: x-large;">November</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: x-large;"></span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="color: #134f5c; font-size: x-large;">Roy Morgan</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: x-large;"><em><span style="color: #134f5c;">Early November</span></em> <span style="color: #cc0000;">45 </span> <span style="color: #0b5394;">51 </span> <span style="color: #990000;">46</span> <span style="color: #351c75;">53</span></span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="color: #cccccc; font-size: x-large;">--------------------------------------------------------------------------------</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="color: #cccccc; font-size: x-large;">October</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: x-large;"></span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="color: #134f5c; font-size: x-large;">Roy Morgan</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: x-large;"><em><span style="color: #134f5c;">Early October</span></em> <span style="color: #cc0000;">47 </span> <span style="color: #0b5394;">47 </span> <span style="color: #990000;">48 </span> <span style="color: #351c75;">52</span></span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="color: #cccccc; font-size: x-large;">---------------------------------------------------------------------------------</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="color: #999999; font-size: x-large;">2014 General Election</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #cc0000;">44</span> <span style="color: #0b5394;">49 </span> <span style="color: #990000;">46 </span> <span style="color: #351c75;">53</span></span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="color: #cccccc; font-size: x-large;">----------------------------------------------------------------------------------</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="color: #cccccc; font-size: small;"></span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="color: #cccccc;"></span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="color: #cccccc;"></span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="color: #cccccc;"></span></strong><br />
<br />
<strong><span style="color: #cccccc; font-size: x-large;"></span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="color: #444444; font-size: x-large;">----------------------------------------------------------------------------------</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="color: #444444; font-size: x-large;">July 2015 Average <em>compared to </em>2014 General Election</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="color: #444444; font-size: x-large;"></span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="color: #444444; font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: #660000;">July 2015</span> <span style="color: #cc0000;">52 </span> <span style="color: #0b5394;">47</span> <span style="color: #990000;">52</span> <span style="color: #351c75;">48 </span> </span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="color: #444444; font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: #0c343d;">2014 GE</span> <span style="color: #cc0000;">44</span> <span style="color: #0b5394;">49 </span> <span style="color: #990000;">46</span> <span style="color: #351c75;">53</span></span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="color: #444444; font-size: x-large;">Difference <span style="color: #cc0000;">+8</span> <span style="color: #0b5394;">-2</span> <span style="color: #990000;">+6</span> <span style="color: #351c75;">-5</span> </span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="color: #444444; font-size: x-large;">-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="color: #444444; font-size: x-large;"></span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="color: #444444; font-size: x-large;"></span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="color: #444444; font-size: x-large;"></span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="color: #444444; font-size: large;">* All figures are rounded.</span></strong><br />
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<strong><span style="font-size: x-large;"></span></strong><br />
<br />
<strong><span style="color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"></span></strong><br />swordfishhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11395947680707181966noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2650303453151499427.post-88590112394961730312015-03-27T10:11:00.004-07:002015-04-04T06:12:23.619-07:00Northland By-Election: Maori and the Hokianga-Kaikohe Red Belt<br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><img src="http://www.breambay.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/breambay2.jpg" height="204" width="640" /></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><b>Contents</b></span><br />
<b>(1) Northland + Te Tai Tokerau</b><br />
<b>(2) How Blue was my Valley ?</b><br />
<b>(3) Map of 2014 Party Support</b><br />
<b>(4) NZ First 2014 Strongholds</b><br />
<br />
<br />
<b>(1) Northland + Te Tai Tokerau</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Over recent weeks, the local blogosphere has witnessed a fair amount of speculation about the electoral effects of Northland voters on the Maori Roll.<br />
<br />
On the one hand, a number of commenters have asked if anyone knows precisely what effect the addition of Northland-based Te Tai Tokerau voters would have on the political complexion of Northland. Would it turn Northland Red ? Or just a lighter shade of Blue ?<br />
<br />
On the other other hand, a number of blog authors and commenters have suggested - often explicitly, sometimes implicitly - that the overwhelming majority of Northland Maori are on the Te Tai Tokerau Roll and that this takes the bulk of the Region's Left-leaning voters out of the equation for this By-Election. Things would be different, the reasoning goes, if Northland Maori were voting.<br />
<br />
To take just a couple of definitive examples, Bomber Bradbury (at <i>The</i> <i>Daily Blog</i>) has (shall we say, somewhat colourfully) argued "Northland voters are blue, drained of the Maori vote who overwhelmingly stay on the Maori electorate, Northland is an electorate of Farmers and provincial businessmen. It's bluer than the liquid they use to show tampon absorption powers on TV adverts...It's blue." And, in a later post, "Northland is a banjo twanging red neck Hicksville bled white from most Maori being on the Maori roll...book burning is recreational here...progress in Northland is people not burning witches when there's an eclipse."<br />
<br />
Meanwhile, Chris Trotter at <i>Bowalley Road</i> considers Northland to be "about as close as you get in New Zealand to the American Deep South...Northland's Pakeha voters (will) certainly give Winston Peters and NZ First a serious sniff. But Labour ? Not a chance. Not while most of Northland's Maori voters keep themselves off the General Roll ... (Northland is) Apartheid without the pass laws."<br />
<br />
Right, so first of all - the effect of adding Northland-based Te Tai Tokerau voters to the Northland electorate.<br />
<br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> <b> Northland </b>Party-Vote (2014) </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #666666; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Total Vote = 35,553 </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #999999; color: black; font-size: x-large;"> <b><span style="color: #990000;">Lab</span> <span style="color: #274e13;">Green</span> <span style="color: #660000;">Left </span> <span style="color: #783f04;">NZF</span> <span style="color: #741b47;">Oppo </span> <span style="color: #0b5394;"> Nat</span> <span style="color: #073763;">Govt </span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;"> Cons</span> <span style="color: #351c75;">Right</span> </b></span><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #990000;">17</span> <span style="color: #274e13;">11</span> <span style="color: #660000;">29</span> <span style="color: #783f04;"> 13</span> <span style="color: #741b47;"> 42</span> <span style="color: #0b5394;"> 49</span> <span style="color: #073763;">50</span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;">6</span> <span style="color: #351c75;">57</span> </span></b><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><b> Te Tai Tokerau </b>Party-Vote (2014) </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #666666; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> (<i>Only</i> TTT votes from within Northland Electorate Boundaries) </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #666666; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Total Vote = 5,371 </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #999999; color: black; font-size: x-large;"><b> <span style="color: #990000;">Lab</span> <span style="color: #274e13;">Green</span> <span style="color: #660000;">Left </span> <span style="color: #783f04;">NZF</span> <span style="color: #741b47;">Oppo</span> <span style="color: #0b5394;"> Nat</span> <span style="color: #073763;">Govt</span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;">Cons</span> <span style="color: #351c75;">Right </span> </b></span><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #990000;"> 39</span> <span style="color: #274e13;"> 9</span> <span style="color: #660000;">68 </span> <span style="color: #783f04;">15</span> <span style="color: #741b47;"> 83</span> <span style="color: #0b5394;">7 </span> <span style="color: #073763;">15 </span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;">1</span> <span style="color: #351c75;">16</span> </span></b><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><b> Combined</b> Party-Vote (2014) </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #666666; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Total Vote = 40,924 </span><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; color: black; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #990000;">Lab</span> <span style="color: #274e13;">Green</span> <span style="color: #660000;">Left </span> <span style="color: #783f04;">NZF</span> <span style="color: #741b47;"><span style="color: #741b47;">Oppo</span> </span> <span style="color: #0b5394;"> Nat</span> <span style="color: #073763;">Govt </span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;">Cons</span> <span style="color: #351c75;">Right </span> </span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #990000;">20 </span> <span style="color: #274e13;">11 </span> <span style="color: #660000;">34 </span> <span style="color: #783f04;"> 13</span> <span style="color: #741b47;">47</span> <span style="color: #0b5394;">43</span> <span style="color: #073763;">46</span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;"> 6</span> <span style="color: #351c75;">51 </span> </span></b><br />
<br />
As you can see, <b>General Roll Northlanders</b> are from Mars / while <b>Maori Roll Northlanders </b>appear to be from Venus. Extraordinary contrast in their political loyalties. The Left take a paltry 29% and the Opposition Bloc (Left + NZF) 42% among the former, but win a commanding 68% and 83% (respectively) among the latter.<br />
<br />
National receive almost half the <i>Party-Vote</i> (49%) from General Roll voters but hardly any of the <i>Party-Vote</i> (only 7%) from those on the Maori Roll. Similarly, the Right Bloc (Govt parties + Cons) take 57% in the Northland electorate but a mere 16% among Northlanders in Te Tai Tokerau.<br />
<br />
Which all sounds very impressive. But, as the Table suggests, the addition of Maori Roll voters doesn't in fact alter the area's political complexion to any appreciable extent. The seat simply becomes Light Blue rather than Mid Blue.<br />
<br />
The Left rises a little, the Opposition draws level with the Government Bloc, but the broad Right still easily trounces the Left and remains ahead of the Opposition parties as a whole - albeit by a narrower margin.<br />
<br />
At the last General Election, the Northland seat sat a little to the Right of the rest of the Country (<b>New</b> <b>Zealand</b> split 53% Right / 46% Oppo, <b>Northland</b> split 57% Right / 42% Oppo). Add the region's TTT voters and the resulting 51/47 split moves Northland slightly to the Left of the Nation as a whole. But still clearly, of course, in Light Blue - rather than Red - territory.<br />
<br />
Why is the effect relatively minor ? Te Tai Tokerau's 5371 voters from the Northland area are absolutely dwarfed by the 35,553 voters on the General Roll.<br />
<br />
Partly, that's a result of extremely low turnout among Northlanders on the Maori roll. 13,492 Maori from within Northland's boundaries are on the TTT Roll. But only 5371 (40%) cast a valid <i>Party-Vote</i> in 2014. Far lower than the 69% turnout in the Te Tai Tokerau seat as a whole. As a result, despite comprising almost 40% of <i>the enrolled</i>, Northland Maori made up less than a quarter of Te Tai Tokerau <i>voters</i> at the last Election.<br />
<br />
But it also suggests that many pundits may have an exaggerated idea of the number of Northlanders on the Maori Roll.<br />
<b></b><br />
<br />
<br />
<b>(2) How Blue was my Valley ?</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
I've also read quite a bit of speculation on the alleged ideological proclivities of different towns in Northland.<br />
<br />
Again, to take a few definitive examples, Chris Trotter draws a sharp contrast between (1) the "toothless, stubble-cheeked...boarded-up...brown towns", the "desperate people living in dying towns like Kaitaia" where "the votes...have traditionally been cast for Labour" and (2) the "Boats. Beamers. Batches", "Prestige Brands", outdoor cafes, "Ladies with lap-dogs, Gentlemen in Panama hats" that he believes characterises places like "Kerikeri or Russell."<br />
<br />
Elsewhere on the local blogosphere, a woman who conducted some canvassing for Northland Labour during the last Election suggested in a comment that the town of Kaiwaka (towards Northland's southern fringe) "seemed quite pro Labour", while nearby Mangawhai was apparently largely full of "Labour-hating 'true blues'."<br />
<br />
Another Northland resident commenting on <i>The Standard</i> points to "Kerikeri and to a lesser extent Paihia" as the true-blue affluent towns, contrasting them with "Kaikohe and Kaitaia" which "have been abandoned by successive governments...suffer from terrible unemployment" and where things are generally "quite dire".<br />
<br />
Others on the blogosphere have made the geography implied by Trotter and others explicit, emphasising an east-west divide in Northland between the "retired and escapees of the east coast" and the poorer communities of the west.<br />
<br />
In order to provide a broad overview of the geography of Party support in Northland, I've set out (below) the 2014 <i>Party-Vote</i> stats for all of the larger communities within the Northland electorate.<br />
<br />
The table places these towns and smaller communities in order of Strongest-to-Weakest <b style="color: #741b47;">Opposition Bloc</b> vote <b>(Left + NZF</b>). It ranges from the overwhelmingly-Maori, meatworker town of Moerewa (Oppo 77%) at the top of the table to the conservative, rural Kaipara town of Paparoa (Oppo 32%) at the bottom.<br />
<br />
The colour-bar (behind the name of the town) denotes that community's broad political complexion.<br />
<b style="color: #660000;">Deep Red</b> (Moerewa, Rawene) = Oppo Bloc 70% +<br />
<b style="color: #990000;">Mid Red</b> (Omapere-Opononi) = Oppo Bloc 60-69%<br />
<b style="color: #cc0000;">Light Red</b> = Oppo 50-59%<br />
<b style="color: #3d85c6;">Light Blue </b>(Ahipara through to Kerikeri) = Right Bloc (<b>Govt + Con</b>) 50-59%<br />
<b style="color: #0b5394;">Mid Blue</b> (Mangonui through to Paparoa) = Right 60% +<br />
(There are no large communities in Northland where the Right takes more than 70% of the vote)<br />
The town of Kaeo is evenly split between Oppo and Right (49%/49%) - hence the neutral <b style="color: #b45f06;">Tan</b> colour-bar.<br />
<br />
<b>With each community, the first layer of figures are for votes cast in the <i>Northland seat alone.</i></b><i> </i>Looking at Moerewa at the top of the table, for instance, you can see that <b>115</b> votes were recorded in the Moerewa booth in the Northland electorate. Labour received 52% of those 115 votes, the Greens 6%, the Left Bloc (including IMP) won 63%, NZF 14% and the Opposition Bloc 77%.<br />
<br />
The Nats, meanwhile, took 21%, with virtually no Moerewa support for its little helpers, the Government Bloc (Nats + ACT + Maori + UF) was also on 21% and with Colin Craig's Conservatives receiving just 1%, the Right Bloc as a whole scored a grand total 22% in the town.<br />
<br />
Immediately below those figures, I set out the percentage-point gaps between <span style="color: #660000;"><b>Left</b> </span>and<b style="color: #660000;"> </b><b><span style="color: #351c75;">Right</span></b><span style="color: #660000;"> </span>Blocs,<span style="color: #660000;"> </span><b><span style="color: #741b47;">Oppo</span></b><b style="color: #660000;"> </b>and<span style="color: #073763;"><b> Govt</b> </span>Blocs, and <b><span style="color: #741b47;">Oppo</span></b><span style="color: #660000;"> </span>and<b style="color: #660000;"> </b><b><span style="color: #351c75;">Right</span></b><span style="color: #660000;"> </span>Blocs<span style="color: #660000;">.</span> In each case, the colour of the numbers tell you which Bloc won. So, for example, you can see that the Left beat the Right by 41 points among general roll voters in Moerewa, with the Opposition Bloc a massive 55 points ahead of the Right.<br />
<br />
<b>Then, in the second layer, I provide the <i>combined</i> (Northland + TTT) stats.</b><br />
For instance, 380 votes were cast in Moerewa as a whole (General + Maori Roll voters) and this inclusion of the Te Tai Tokerau votes make the Left and Opposition victories even more emphatic in that town.<br />
<br />
As you can see, in those Northland towns with a significant minority of voters on the Maori Roll (in Moerewa's case, an absolute majority and in Kaikohe's case, close to half), the political complexion is significantly transformed by including TTT voters. Kaikohe, for instance, moves from a fairly evenly-divided town (Oppo beats Right / Right beats Left) to a clearly Left-leaning town (Left win by an impressive 25 points, Oppo win by an emphatic 44 points).<br />
<br />
The same goes for Kawakawa and a range of other communities, even including one or two otherwise <b style="color: #3d85c6;">Light Blue</b> towns - Ahipara and Kaitaia, for instance.<br />
<br />
Also look at the way Right Bloc margins are slashed in a few Blue places like Awanui, Tokerau Beach, Okaihau and Paihia.<br />
<br />
On the other hand, plenty of <b style="color: #351c75;">Right-leaning</b> towns in Northland have comparatively few Maori voters and they remain decidedly <b style="color: #073763;">Blue</b> (Paparoa, Waipapa, Mangawhai Heads and Wellsford, for instance).<br />
<br />
<b>Using the 2013 Census stats, I've done a quick comparison</b> of the 5 most Left/Oppo-leaning towns (Moerewa / Rawene / Omapere-Opononi / Kaikohe / Kawakawa) with 5 communities at the Bluer end of the spectrum (Paihia / Ruawai / Wellsford / Mangawhai Heads / Taipa Bay-Mangonui).<br />
<br />
The most obvious contrast is in the ethnic composition. The Red towns are overwhelmingly Maori (Moerewa 88% / Kaikohe 78% / Kawakawa 71% / Omapere-Opononi 67% / Rawene 64%) while Blue towns are largely Pakeha (Maori comprise 37% of the Ruawai population, 27% in Taipa Bay-Mangonui, and 25%, 24% and just 10% in Paihia, Wellsford and Mangawhai Heads respectively).<br />
<br />
As expected, unemployment rates are higher in the Red towns (averaging 18%) than in the Blue (9%). That there's an income-gap will also come as no surprise - although, arguably, it's not as great as you'd expect (Average Median Income: <b>Red Town</b> $18,000 / <b>Blue Town</b> $22,000<br />
....Annual Income $20,000 or less: <b>Red Town</b> 56% / <b>Blue Town</b> 45%<br />
....Annual Income $50,000 +: <b>Red Town</b> 11% / <b>Blue Town</b> 16%).<br />
Pretty nuanced income differences for such starkly-contrasting political affiliations. The supposedly affluent Blue Towns of Northland turn out to be comparatively poor - certainly a <i>long </i>way from high-income big city suburbs and much more like Low to Low-Middle income urban areas (although admittedly the rent averages are significantly lower in Northland - a partial compensation, at least).<br />
<br />
Nor is it a surprise that Internet access is higher in the Blue towns (average 65% compared to 47% in Red communities) and that one-parent families are much thinner on the ground (18% Blue towns / 40% Red towns). Blue towns also tend to be older in age and composed of larger minorities of overseas-born residents (mainly from the UK).<br />
<br />
<b><br /></b>
<span style="background-color: #660000; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Moerewa </span><br />
<img src="http://nzbybike.com/assets/Town/moerewa/_resampled/croppedimage760350-4093638.jpg" height="294" width="640" /><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Northland<b> 115 </b></span><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; color: black; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #990000;">Lab</span> <span style="color: #274e13;">Green </span><span style="color: #660000;">Left</span> <span style="color: #783f04;"> NZF</span> <span style="color: #741b47;">Oppo </span> <span style="color: #0b5394;"> Nat</span> <span style="color: #073763;">Govt</span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;">Cons</span> <span style="color: #351c75;">Right</span> </span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #990000;"> 52</span> <span style="color: #274e13;"> 6</span> <span style="color: #660000;"> 63</span> <span style="color: #783f04;"> 14</span> <span style="color: #741b47;"> 77</span> <span style="color: #0b5394;">21</span> <span style="color: #073763;"> 21</span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;"> 1</span> <span style="color: #351c75;"> 22</span> </span></b><b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> </span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #660000;"> </span><span style="color: black;">Left/Right</span> Diff <span style="color: black;">Oppo/Govt Diff Oppo/Right Diff</span> </span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #660000;"> + 41</span> <span style="color: #741b47;"> + 56 + 55 </span></span></b><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Northland + Te Tai Tokerau <b>380 </b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #999999; color: black; font-size: x-large;"> <b><span style="color: #990000;">Lab</span> <span style="color: #274e13;">Green</span><span style="color: #660000;"> Left</span> <span style="color: #783f04;">NZF</span> <span style="color: #741b47;">Oppo</span> <span style="color: #0b5394;"> Nat</span> <span style="color: #073763;">Govt </span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;">Cons </span><span style="color: #351c75;">Right </span> </b></span><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #990000;"> 59</span> <span style="color: #274e13;"> 6</span> <span style="color: #660000;"> 75</span> <span style="color: #783f04;">11</span> <span style="color: #741b47;">86</span> <span style="color: #0b5394;">8</span> <span style="color: #073763;"> 12</span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;"> 0</span> <span style="color: #351c75;">12</span> </span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: black;"> Left/Right Diff Oppo/Govt Diff Oppo/Right Diff</span> </span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #660000;">+ 63</span> <span style="color: #741b47;">+ 74 + 74</span> </span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #444444; font-size: x-large;"> </span></b><br />
<br />
<br />
<span style="background-color: #660000; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Rawene </span><br />
<b><img src="http://www.aatravel.co.nz/location/media/rawene_creditdw.jpg" height="360" width="640" /></b><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Northland<b> 196 </b></span><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; color: black; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #990000;"> Lab</span> <span style="color: #274e13;">Green</span> <span style="color: #660000;">Left</span> <span style="color: #783f04;">NZF</span> <span style="color: #741b47;">Oppo</span> <span style="color: #0b5394;">Nat </span><span style="color: #073763;">Govt </span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;">Cons</span> <span style="color: #351c75;">Right </span> </span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #990000;">29</span> <span style="color: #274e13;"> 24</span> <span style="color: #660000;"> 59</span> <span style="color: #783f04;"> 12</span> <span style="color: #741b47;">71</span> <span style="color: #0b5394;">22</span> <span style="color: #073763;">23</span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;">5</span> <span style="color: #351c75;">28</span> </span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: black;">Left/Right Diff Oppo/Govt Diff Oppo/Right Diff</span> </span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #660000;">+ 31</span> <span style="color: #741b47;"> + 48 + 43</span> </span></b><b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> </span></b><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Northland + Te Tai Tokerau <b>306 </b></span><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; color: black; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #990000;">Lab</span> <span style="color: #274e13;">Green</span> <span style="color: #660000;">Left </span> <span style="color: #783f04;">NZF</span> <span style="color: #741b47;">Oppo</span> <span style="color: #0b5394;">Nat </span><span style="color: #073763;">Govt</span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;">Cons</span> <span style="color: #351c75;">Right </span> </span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #990000;">31 </span> <span style="color: #274e13;">20</span> <span style="color: #660000;"> 64</span> <span style="color: #783f04;">11</span> <span style="color: #741b47;"> 76</span> <span style="color: #0b5394;"> 15</span> <span style="color: #073763;">19 </span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;">3</span> <span style="color: #351c75;">22</span> </span></b><b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> </span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: black;"> Left/Right Diff Oppo/Govt Diff Oppo/Right Diff</span> </span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #660000;">+ 42</span> <span style="color: #741b47;"> + 57 + 54</span> </span></b><b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> </span></b><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #660000; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #990000; color: #f3f3f3;"> Omapere/Opononi </span><br /><b><span style="background-color: #990000; color: #f3f3f3;"><img src="http://cache2.asset-cache.net/gc/126375232-hokianga-harbour-and-giant-sand-dunes-of-gettyimages.jpg?v=1&c=IWSAsset&k=2&d=TPQnJTyiW%2Fjf3ez13BRY012ZmRO%2FhIkEQ7HVdk7NnWOwvKTv7ygtB8uDaGMDxukm" height="222" width="640" /></span></b><br /><span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Northland <b>205 </b></span><br /><b><span style="background-color: #999999; color: black; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #990000;">Lab</span> <span style="color: #274e13;">Green</span> <span style="color: #660000;">Left </span> <span style="color: #783f04;"> </span><span style="color: #783f04;">NZF</span> <span style="color: #741b47;">Oppo</span> <span style="color: #0b5394;"> Nat</span> <span style="color: #073763;">Govt </span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;">Cons </span><span style="color: #351c75;">Right</span> </span></b><br /><b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #990000;">30 </span> <span style="background-color: #999999;"> <span style="color: #274e13;">22 </span></span></span></b><b><span style="background-color: #999999;"> <span style="color: #660000;"> 53</span> <span style="color: #783f04;">11</span> <span style="color: #741b47;">64</span> <span style="color: #0b5394;">30 </span> <span style="color: #073763;">31 </span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;">4</span> <span style="color: #351c75;"> 36</span> </span></b></span><span style="background-color: #999999;"></span><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #999999;"> Left/Right</span> Diff Oppo/Govt Diff Oppo/Right Diff </span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #660000;">+ 17 </span> <span style="color: #741b47;">+ 33 </span> <span style="color: #741b47;">+ 28</span> </span></b><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Northland + Te Tai Tokerau<b> 303 </b></span><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; color: black; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #990000;">Lab </span><span style="color: #274e13;">Green</span> <span style="color: #660000;">Left </span> <span style="color: #783f04;">NZF</span> <span style="color: #741b47;">Oppo</span> <span style="color: #0b5394;">Nat </span><span style="color: #073763;">Govt</span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;">Cons</span> <span style="color: #351c75;">Right </span> </span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #990000;">31 </span> <span style="color: #274e13;">18 </span> <span style="color: #660000;">58 </span> <span style="color: #783f04;">12 </span> <span style="color: #741b47;"> 70</span> <span style="color: #0b5394;">22</span> <span style="color: #073763;">26</span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;"> 3</span> <span style="color: #351c75;"> 29</span> </span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> Left/Right Diff Oppo/Govt Diff Oppo/Right Diff </span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #660000;">+ 29 </span> <span style="color: #741b47;"> + 44 + 41 </span></span></b><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: #cc0000; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Kaikohe </span><br />
<b><img src="http://www.kaikohe.co.nz/Headings/Kaikohe_Main_Street_at_intersection_2_900.jpg" height="156" width="640" /></b><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Northland<b> 518 </b></span><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; color: black; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #990000;">Lab</span> <span style="color: #274e13;">Green</span> <span style="color: #660000;">Left </span> <span style="color: #783f04;">NZF</span> <span style="color: #741b47;">Oppo</span> <span style="color: #0b5394;">Nat </span><span style="color: #073763;">Govt</span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;"> Cons</span> <span style="color: #351c75;">Right</span> </span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #990000;">28 </span> <span style="color: #274e13;">5</span> <span style="color: #660000;">36 </span> <span style="color: #783f04;">19</span> <span style="color: #741b47;">55 </span> <span style="color: #0b5394;">37</span> <span style="color: #073763;">39</span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;">4</span> <span style="color: #351c75;"> 43</span> </span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> Left/Right Diff Oppo/Govt Diff Oppo/Right Diff </span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #351c75;"> + 7 </span> <span style="color: #741b47;"> + 16 + 12 </span></span></b><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Northland + Te Tai Tokerau<b> 1018 </b></span><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; color: black; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #990000;">Lab</span> <span style="color: #274e13;">Green</span> <span style="color: #660000;">Left </span> <span style="color: #783f04;">NZF</span> <span style="color: #741b47;">Oppo</span> <span style="color: #0b5394;"> Nat</span> <span style="color: #073763;">Govt</span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;">Cons</span><span style="color: #351c75;"> Right</span> </span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #990000;">33 </span> <span style="color: #274e13;"> 6</span> <span style="color: #660000;"> 53</span> <span style="color: #783f04;">17</span> <span style="color: #741b47;">70</span> <span style="color: #0b5394;">20</span> <span style="color: #073763;">26</span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;">2</span> <span style="color: #351c75;">28 </span></span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> Left/Right Diff Oppo/Govt Diff Oppo/Right Diff </span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #660000;">+ 25</span> <span style="color: #741b47;">+ 44 + 42 </span></span></b><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: #cc0000; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Kawakawa </span><br />
<b><img src="http://www.twincoastcycletrail.kiwi.nz/wp-content/uploads/plan-your-stay/plan-your-stay-slider-6.jpg" height="300" width="640" /></b><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Northland<b> 344 </b></span><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; color: black; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #990000;">Lab</span> <span style="color: #274e13;">Green </span><span style="color: #660000;">Left </span> <span style="color: #783f04;">NZF</span> <span style="color: #741b47;">Oppo </span> <span style="color: #0b5394;"> Nat</span> <span style="color: #073763;">Govt </span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;">Cons </span><span style="color: #351c75;">Right </span></span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #990000;">31</span> <span style="color: #274e13;"> 9</span> <span style="color: #660000;">44 </span> <span style="color: #783f04;">9</span> <span style="color: #741b47;">53</span> <span style="color: #0b5394;">38</span> <span style="color: #073763;">40</span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;"> 5</span> <span style="color: #351c75;">45 </span> </span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> Left/Right Diff Oppo/Govt Diff Oppo/Right Diff </span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #351c75;"> + 1 </span> <span style="color: #741b47;"> + 13 + 8 </span></span></b><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Northland + Te Tai Tokerau<b> 553 </b></span><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #990000;">Lab</span> <span style="color: #274e13;">Green </span><span style="color: #660000;">Left </span> <span style="color: #783f04;">NZF</span><span style="color: #741b47;"> Oppo</span> <span style="color: #0b5394;"> Nat</span> <span style="color: #073763;">Govt</span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;">Cons</span><span style="color: #351c75;"> Right</span> </span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #990000;">42</span> <span style="color: #274e13;">8</span> <span style="color: #660000;"> 57</span> <span style="color: #783f04;">10</span> <span style="color: #741b47;"> 67</span> <span style="color: #0b5394;">25</span> <span style="color: #073763;"> 28</span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;">3</span> <span style="color: #351c75;"> 31</span> </span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> Left/Right Diff Oppo/Govt Diff Oppo/Right Diff </span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #660000;">+ 26</span> <span style="color: #741b47;"> + 39 + 36 </span></span></b><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: #b45f06; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Kaeo </span><br />
<b><img src="http://www.newzealandstocklibrary.co.nz/gallery/North_Island/NORTHLAND/Whangaroa_and_Kaeo/NZSL-SB-002085.jpg" height="380" width="640" /></b><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Northland<b> 376 </b></span><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; color: black; font-size: x-large;"> </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #990000; font-size: x-large;">Lab</span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: black; font-size: x-large;"> </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #274e13; font-size: x-large;">Green</span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: black; font-size: x-large;"> </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #660000; font-size: x-large;">Left </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: black; font-size: x-large;"> </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #783f04; font-size: x-large;">NZF</span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: black; font-size: x-large;"> </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #741b47; font-size: x-large;">Oppo</span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #a64d79; font-size: x-large;"> </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: black; font-size: x-large;"> </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #0b5394; font-size: x-large;">Nat </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #073763; font-size: x-large;">Govt </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: black; font-size: x-large;"> </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #3d85c6; font-size: x-large;">Cons </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #351c75; font-size: x-large;">Right</span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: black; font-size: x-large;"> </span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #990000;">21</span> <span style="color: #274e13;">16</span> <span style="color: #660000;"> 40 </span> <span style="color: #783f04;"> 9 </span> <span style="color: #741b47;">49 </span> <span style="color: #0b5394;"> 43 </span><span style="color: #073763;"> 45 </span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;">4 </span> <span style="color: #351c75;">49 </span> </span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> Left/Right Diff Oppo/Govt Diff Oppo/Right Diff </span></b><br />
<b><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #999999;"> <span style="color: #351c75;"> + 9 </span> <span style="color: #741b47;">+ 4 </span> = </span> </span></b><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Northland + Te Tai Tokerau<b> 489 </b></span><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; color: black; font-size: x-large;"> </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #990000; font-size: x-large;">Lab</span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: black; font-size: x-large;"> </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #274e13; font-size: x-large;">Green</span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: black; font-size: x-large;"> </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #660000; font-size: x-large;">Left </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: black; font-size: x-large;"> </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #783f04; font-size: x-large;">NZF</span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: black; font-size: x-large;"> </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #741b47; font-size: x-large;">Oppo </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: black; font-size: x-large;"> </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #0b5394; font-size: x-large;">Nat </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #073763; font-size: x-large;">Govt </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: black; font-size: x-large;"> </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #3d85c6; font-size: x-large;"> Cons</span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: black; font-size: x-large;"> </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #351c75; font-size: x-large;">Right </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: black; font-size: x-large;"> </span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #990000;">27 </span> <span style="color: #274e13;"> 14 </span><span style="color: #444444;"> </span> <span style="color: #660000;">49 </span> <span style="color: #783f04;"> 9 </span> <span style="color: #741b47;"> 58 </span> <span style="color: #0b5394;"> 34</span> <span style="color: #073763;"> 37 </span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;">3 </span><span style="color: #351c75;">41 </span> </span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> Left/Right Diff Oppo/Govt Diff Oppo/Right Diff </span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #660000;"> + 8 </span> <span style="color: #741b47;"> + 21 + 17 </span></span></b><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: #3d85c6; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Ahipara </span><br />
<b><img src="http://realfarnorth.co.nz/images/the%20finish%20line.jpg" height="270" width="640" /></b><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Northland<b> 272 </b></span><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; color: black; font-size: x-large;"> </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #990000; font-size: x-large;">Lab</span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: black; font-size: x-large;"> </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #274e13; font-size: x-large;">Green </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #660000; font-size: x-large;">Left </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: black; font-size: x-large;"> </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #783f04; font-size: x-large;"> NZF </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #741b47; font-size: x-large;">Oppo </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: black; font-size: x-large;"> </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #0b5394; font-size: x-large;"> Nat </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #073763; font-size: x-large;">Govt </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: black; font-size: x-large;"> </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #3d85c6; font-size: x-large;"> Cons </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #351c75; font-size: x-large;">Right </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: black; font-size: x-large;"> </span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #990000;">22 </span> <span style="color: #274e13;">13</span> <span style="color: #660000;">36 </span><span style="color: #783f04;"> </span> <span style="color: #783f04;"> 12</span> <span style="color: #741b47;"> 47 </span> <span style="color: #0b5394;"> 46 </span><span style="color: #073763;"> 47 </span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;">5 </span> <span style="color: #351c75;">52 </span></span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> Left/Right Diff Oppo/Govt Diff Oppo/Right Diff </span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #351c75;"> + 16</span> = <span style="color: #351c75;">+ 5 </span> </span></b><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Northland + Te Tai Tokerau<b> 407 </b></span><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; color: black; font-size: x-large;"> </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #990000; font-size: x-large;"> Lab </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #274e13; font-size: x-large;">Green</span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: black; font-size: x-large;"> </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #660000; font-size: x-large;">Left </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: black; font-size: x-large;"> </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #783f04; font-size: x-large;"> NZF</span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: black; font-size: x-large;"> </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #741b47; font-size: x-large;">Oppo</span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: black; font-size: x-large;"> </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #0b5394; font-size: x-large;"> Nat </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #073763; font-size: x-large;">Govt </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: black; font-size: x-large;"> </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #3d85c6; font-size: x-large;">Cons </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #351c75; font-size: x-large;">Right </span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #990000;"> 27 </span> <span style="color: #274e13;">10</span> <span style="color: #660000;">47 </span> <span style="color: #783f04;">12 </span><span style="color: #741b47;"> 58</span> <span style="color: #0b5394;"> 34 </span> <span style="color: #073763;"> 37 </span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;"> 4</span> <span style="color: #351c75;">41 </span></span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> Left/Right Diff Oppo/Govt Diff Oppo/Right Diff </span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #660000;"> + 6 </span> <span style="color: #741b47;"> + 21 + 17 </span></span></b><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: #3d85c6; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Kaitaia </span><br />
<b><img src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b6/Main_Street_New_Zealand_-_Kaitaia,_Northland,_October_2007.jpg" height="428" width="640" /></b><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Northland<b> 1028 </b></span><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; color: black; font-size: x-large;"> </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #990000; font-size: x-large;"> Lab </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #274e13; font-size: x-large;">Green </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #660000; font-size: x-large;">Left </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: black; font-size: x-large;"> </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #783f04; font-size: x-large;">NZF </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #741b47; font-size: x-large;">Oppo </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: black; font-size: x-large;"> </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #0b5394; font-size: x-large;"> Nat </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #073763; font-size: x-large;">Govt </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: black; font-size: x-large;"> </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #3d85c6; font-size: x-large;">Cons</span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: black; font-size: x-large;"> </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #351c75; font-size: x-large;">Right </span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #990000;"> 21 </span><span style="color: #274e13;"> 7 </span><span style="color: #660000;">31 </span> <span style="color: #783f04;"> 15 </span> <span style="color: #741b47;">47 </span> <span style="color: #0b5394;"> 41 </span><span style="color: #073763;"> 43</span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;"> 9 </span><span style="color: #351c75;"> 52 </span></span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> Left/Right Diff Oppo/Govt Diff Oppo/Right Diff </span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #351c75;">+ 21 </span> <span style="color: #741b47;">+ 4 </span> <span style="color: #351c75;"> + 5 </span> </span></b><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Northland + Te Tai Tokerau<b> 1524 </b></span><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; color: black; font-size: x-large;"> </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #990000; font-size: x-large;">Lab </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #274e13; font-size: x-large;">Green</span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #660000; font-size: x-large;"> Left </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: black; font-size: x-large;"> </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #783f04; font-size: x-large;"> NZF</span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: black; font-size: x-large;"> </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #741b47; font-size: x-large;">Oppo </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: black; font-size: x-large;"> </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #0b5394; font-size: x-large;">Nat </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #073763; font-size: x-large;">Govt </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: black; font-size: x-large;"> </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #3d85c6; font-size: x-large;"> Cons</span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: black; font-size: x-large;"> </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #351c75; font-size: x-large;">Right </span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #990000;"> 27</span> <span style="color: #274e13;"> 8 </span> <span style="color: #660000;">44 </span> <span style="color: #783f04;"> 14 </span><span style="color: #741b47;"> 58 </span> <span style="color: #0b5394;">30 </span> <span style="color: #073763;">33 </span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;"> 7 </span> <span style="color: #351c75;">40 </span></span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> Left/Right Diff Oppo/Govt Diff Oppo/Right Diff </span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #660000;">+ 4 </span> <span style="color: #741b47;"> + 25 + 18 </span></span></b><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> </span><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"></span></b><br />
<span style="background-color: #3d85c6; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Kaiwaka </span><br />
<b><img height="426" src="https://c1.staticflickr.com/3/2838/10050401016_9dc3a4939c.jpg" width="640" /></b><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Northland<b> 529 </b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> <b><span style="color: #990000;">Lab</span> <span style="color: #274e13;">Green</span> <span style="color: #660000;">Left</span> <span style="color: #783f04;">NZF</span> <span style="color: #741b47;">Oppo</span> <span style="color: #0b5394;">Nat</span> <span style="color: #073763;">Govt</span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;"> Cons </span><span style="color: #351c75;">Right </span></b></span><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #990000;"> 16</span> <span style="color: #274e13;">16</span> <span style="color: #660000;">33</span> <span style="color: #783f04;">12</span> <span style="color: #741b47;">45</span> <span style="color: #0b5394;">49</span> <span style="color: #073763;">49 </span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;"> 5</span> <span style="color: #351c75;">54 </span></span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> Left/Right Diff Oppo/Govt Diff Oppo/Right Diff </span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #351c75;"> + 21</span> <span style="color: #073763;"> + 4</span> <span style="color: #351c75;">+ 9</span> </span></b><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Northland + Te Tai Tokerau<b> 575 </b></span><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; color: black; font-size: x-large;"> </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #990000; font-size: x-large;">Lab</span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: black; font-size: x-large;"> </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #274e13; font-size: x-large;">Green</span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: black; font-size: x-large;"> </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #660000; font-size: x-large;">Left </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: black; font-size: x-large;"> </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #783f04; font-size: x-large;"> NZF</span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: black; font-size: x-large;"> </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #741b47; font-size: x-large;">Oppo </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: black; font-size: x-large;"> </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #0b5394; font-size: x-large;"> Nat </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #073763; font-size: x-large;">Govt </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: black; font-size: x-large;"> </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #3d85c6; font-size: x-large;">Cons</span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: black; font-size: x-large;"> </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #351c75; font-size: x-large;">Right </span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #990000;">17 </span> <span style="color: #274e13;">16</span> <span style="color: #660000;">35</span> <span style="color: #783f04;">13 </span> <span style="color: #741b47;">47 </span> <span style="color: #0b5394;"> 46 </span> <span style="color: #073763;">47</span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;"> 5</span> <span style="color: #351c75;"> 52 </span></span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> Left/Right Diff Oppo/Govt Diff Oppo/Right Diff </span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #351c75;"> + 17</span> = <span style="color: #351c75;">+ 5 </span> </span></b><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: #3d85c6; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Awanui </span><br />
<b><img src="http://www.newzealandstocklibrary.co.nz/gallery/North_Island/NORTHLAND/Awanui/NZSL-SB-002080.jpg" height="393" width="640" /></b><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Northland<b> 269 </b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> <b> <span style="color: #990000;">Lab</span> <span style="color: #274e13;">Green</span> <span style="color: #660000;">Left</span> <span style="color: #783f04;"> NZF </span><span style="color: #741b47;">Oppo </span> <span style="color: #0b5394;"> Nat</span> <span style="color: #073763;">Govt </span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;">Cons </span><span style="color: #351c75;">Right </span></b> </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> <b> <span style="color: #990000;">20 </span><span style="color: #274e13;">6</span> <span style="color: #660000;"> 29</span> <span style="color: #783f04;">15</span> <span style="color: #741b47;">44 </span> <span style="color: #0b5394;"> 46 </span> <span style="color: #073763;">48</span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;">6 </span><span style="color: #351c75;">54</span> </b></span><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> Left/Right Diff Oppo/Govt Diff Oppo/Right Diff </span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #351c75;"> + 25 </span> <span style="color: #073763;"> + 4 </span> <span style="color: #351c75;"> + 10 </span></span></b><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Northland + Te Tai -Tokerau<b> 385 </b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"><b> <span style="color: #990000;">Lab</span> <span style="color: #274e13;">Green </span><span style="color: #660000;">Left </span> <span style="color: #783f04;">NZF</span> <span style="color: #741b47;">Oppo</span> <span style="color: #0b5394;">Nat</span> <span style="color: #073763;">Govt</span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;">Cons</span> <span style="color: #351c75;">Right</span> </b></span><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #990000;"> 24 </span><span style="color: #274e13;"> 5 </span> <span style="color: #660000;">38 </span> <span style="color: #783f04;"> 15 </span> <span style="color: #741b47;"> 53 </span> <span style="color: #0b5394;"> 35</span> <span style="color: #073763;"> 40</span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;"> 5 </span><span style="color: #351c75;"> 45 </span></span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> Left/Right Diff Oppo/Govt Diff Oppo/Right Diff </span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #351c75;">+ 7</span> <span style="color: #741b47;"> + 13 + 8 </span></span></b><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: #3d85c6; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Dargaville </span><br />
<b><img src="http://atndargaville.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/darg-1693-920x318.jpg" height="221" width="640" /></b><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Northland <b>1489</b> </span><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; color: black; font-size: x-large;"> </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #990000; font-size: x-large;"> Lab </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #274e13; font-size: x-large;">Green </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #660000; font-size: x-large;">Left </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: black; font-size: x-large;"> </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #783f04; font-size: x-large;"> NZ</span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: black; font-size: x-large;"> </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #741b47; font-size: x-large;">Oppo</span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: black; font-size: x-large;"> </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #0b5394; font-size: x-large;">Nat</span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: black; font-size: x-large;"> </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #073763; font-size: x-large;">Govt</span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: black; font-size: x-large;"> </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #3d85c6; font-size: x-large;">Cons</span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: black; font-size: x-large;"> </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #351c75; font-size: x-large;">Right </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: black; font-size: x-large;"> </span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #990000;">17 </span> <span style="color: #274e13;"> 8 </span> <span style="color: #660000;"> 26 </span> <span style="color: #783f04;">17 </span> <span style="color: #741b47;">43 </span> <span style="color: #0b5394;"> 48</span> <span style="color: #073763;">49 </span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;"> 6</span> <span style="color: #351c75;">55</span> </span></b><b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> </span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> Left/Right Diff Oppo/Govt Diff Oppo/Right Diff </span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #351c75;">+ 29 </span> <span style="color: #073763;"> + 6 </span> <span style="color: #351c75;">+ 12 </span></span></b><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Northland + Te Tai Tokerau<b> <span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3;"> 1726</span> </b></span><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; color: black; font-size: x-large;"> </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #990000; font-size: x-large;"> Lab</span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #274e13; font-size: x-large;"> Green </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #660000; font-size: x-large;">Left </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: black; font-size: x-large;"> </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #783f04; font-size: x-large;"> NZF</span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: black; font-size: x-large;"> </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #741b47; font-size: x-large;">Oppo</span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: black; font-size: x-large;"> </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #0b5394; font-size: x-large;">Nat</span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: black; font-size: x-large;"> </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #073763; font-size: x-large;">Govt</span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: black; font-size: x-large;"> </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #3d85c6; font-size: x-large;">Cons</span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: black; font-size: x-large;"> </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #351c75; font-size: x-large;">Right</span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: black; font-size: x-large;"> </span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #990000;">20</span> <span style="color: #274e13;"> 8 </span> <span style="color: #660000;">31 </span> <span style="color: #783f04;">17 </span> <span style="color: #741b47;"> 48 </span> <span style="color: #0b5394;">42</span> <span style="color: #073763;"> 45</span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;"> 5 </span> <span style="color: #351c75;">50 </span> </span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> Left/Right Diff Oppo/Govt Diff Oppo/Right Diff </span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #351c75;"> + 19 </span> <span style="color: #741b47;"> + 3 </span> <span style="color: #351c75;">+ 2</span> </span></b><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #3d85c6; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Te Kopuru </span><br />
<b><img src="http://www.te-kopuru.co.nz/Headings/TK.jpg" height="177" width="640" /></b><br />
<span style="background-color: #999999; color: black; font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3;"><b> </b>Northland <b> 284 </b></span></span><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #990000;">Lab</span><span style="color: #274e13;"> Green</span> <span style="color: #660000;">Left</span> <span style="color: #783f04;">NZF</span> <span style="color: #741b47;">Oppo</span> <span style="color: #0b5394;">Nat </span><span style="color: #073763;">Govt </span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;">Cons</span> <span style="color: #351c75;">Right </span></span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #990000;">14 </span> <span style="color: #274e13;">9 </span> <span style="color: #660000;">24</span> <span style="color: #783f04;"> 18 </span> <span style="color: #741b47;"> 42 </span> <span style="color: #0b5394;"> 48 </span> <span style="color: #073763;"> 50</span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;"> 6 </span> <span style="color: #351c75;">56 </span> </span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> Left/Right Diff Oppo/Govt Diff Oppo/Right Diff </span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #351c75;">+ 32 </span> <span style="color: #073763;"> + 8 </span> <span style="color: #351c75;">+ 14</span> </span></b><br />
<span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3;"><b> </b>Northland + Te Tai Tokerau <b>324 </b></span></span><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #990000;">Lab </span><span style="color: #274e13;">Green</span> <span style="color: #660000;">Left</span> <span style="color: #783f04;">NZF</span> <span style="color: #741b47;">Oppo</span> <span style="color: #0b5394;">Nat</span> <span style="color: #073763;">Govt </span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;">Cons</span> <span style="color: #351c75;">Right</span> </span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #990000;">18 </span><span style="color: #274e13;"> 9 </span> <span style="color: #660000;">28 </span> <span style="color: #783f04;"> 18</span> <span style="color: #741b47;">46 </span> <span style="color: #0b5394;"> 44 </span> <span style="color: #073763;"> 46 </span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;"> 6 </span> <span style="color: #351c75;">52 </span></span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> Left/Right Diff Oppo/Govt Diff Oppo/Right Diff </span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #351c75;"> + 24 </span> = <span style="color: #351c75;"> + 6 </span></span></b><br />
<span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3;"><b> </b> </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="background-color: #3d85c6; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Maungaturoto </span><br />
<b><img src="http://i1.trekearth.com/photos/147208/29659_-_maungaturoto_dreams.jpg" height="425" width="640" /></b><br />
<span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3;"><b> </b> Northland <b>544 </b></span></span><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #990000;">Lab </span><span style="color: #274e13;">Green</span><span style="color: #660000;"> Left</span> <span style="color: #783f04;">NZF</span><span style="color: #741b47;"> Oppo</span> <span style="color: #0b5394;"> Nat </span><span style="color: #073763;">Govt</span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;">Cons</span> <span style="color: #351c75;">Right </span> </span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #990000;"> 17 </span> <span style="color: #274e13;"> 9 </span> <span style="color: #660000;"> 26 </span> <span style="color: #783f04;"> 15 </span> <span style="color: #741b47;"> 42 </span> <span style="color: #0b5394;"> 42</span> <span style="color: #073763;">43 </span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;">14 </span><span style="color: #351c75;">56 </span> </span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> Left/Right Diff Oppo/Govt Diff Oppo/Right Diff </span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #351c75;"> + 30</span> <span style="color: #073763;"> + 1</span> <span style="color: #351c75;">+ 14</span> </span></b><br />
<span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3;"><b> </b>Northland + Te Tai Tokerau <b>581 </b></span></span><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #990000;"> Lab</span> <span style="color: #274e13;">Green</span> <span style="color: #660000;">Left </span> <span style="color: #783f04;">NZF </span><span style="color: #741b47;">Oppo</span> <span style="color: #0b5394;">Nat </span><span style="color: #073763;">Govt </span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;">Cons</span> <span style="color: #351c75;">Right</span> </span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #990000;">19</span> <span style="color: #274e13;"> 9</span> <span style="color: #660000;">29 </span> <span style="color: #783f04;">15 </span> <span style="color: #741b47;"> 44 </span> <span style="color: #0b5394;">40</span> <span style="color: #073763;"> 40</span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;"> 13 </span> <span style="color: #351c75;">54 </span></span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> Left/Right Diff Oppo/Govt Diff Oppo/Right Diff </span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #351c75;">+ 25 </span> <span style="color: #741b47;"> + 4 </span> <span style="color: #351c75;"> + 10 </span></span></b><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><b><span style="color: black;"> </span> </b> </span></span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="background-color: #3d85c6; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Russell </span><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #444444;"></span><img src="http://www.enz.org/images/740-russell-sea-houses.jpg" height="190" width="640" /></b><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Northland<strong> 592 </strong></span><br />
<strong><span style="background-color: #999999; color: black; font-size: x-large;"> </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #990000; font-size: x-large;"> Lab</span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: black; font-size: x-large;"> </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #274e13; font-size: x-large;">Green </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #660000; font-size: x-large;">Left</span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: black; font-size: x-large;"> </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #783f04; font-size: x-large;">NZF</span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: black; font-size: x-large;"> </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #741b47; font-size: x-large;">Oppo </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: black; font-size: x-large;"> </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #0b5394; font-size: x-large;"> Nat </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #073763; font-size: x-large;">Govt </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: black; font-size: x-large;"> </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #3d85c6; font-size: x-large;">Cons </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #351c75; font-size: x-large;">Right</span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: black; font-size: x-large;"> </span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #990000;"> 16</span> <span style="color: #274e13;">15</span> <span style="color: #660000;">31</span> <span style="color: #783f04;">10</span> <span style="color: #741b47;"> 42</span> <span style="color: #0b5394;">53</span> <span style="color: #073763;">54</span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;">3 </span> <span style="color: #351c75;">57</span> </span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> Left/Right Diff Oppo/Govt Diff Oppo/Right Diff </span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #351c75;"> + 26 </span> <span style="color: #073763;"> + 12 </span> <span style="color: #351c75;">+ 15 </span> </span></strong><br />
<span style="color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"> Northland + Te Tai Tokerau<b> 663 </b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #999999;"><b> <span style="color: #990000;">Lab</span> <span style="color: #274e13;">Green</span> <span style="color: #660000;">Left</span> <span style="color: #783f04;"> NZF</span><span style="color: #741b47;"> Oppo </span> <span style="color: #0b5394;">Nat</span> <span style="color: #073763;">Govt</span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;">Cons </span><span style="color: #351c75;">Right </span> </b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #999999;"><b> <span style="color: #990000;">17</span> <span style="color: #274e13;">15</span> <span style="color: #660000;">34 </span> <span style="color: #783f04;"> 11</span> <span style="color: #741b47;"> 45 </span> <span style="color: #0b5394;">49</span> <span style="color: #073763;"> 51</span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;"> 3 </span> <span style="color: #351c75;">54 </span> </b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #999999;"><b> Left/Right Diff Oppo/Govt Diff Oppo/Right Diff </b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #999999;"><b> <span style="color: #351c75;">+ 20 </span> <span style="color: #073763;"> + 6 </span> <span style="color: #351c75;"> + 9 </span></b></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> </span><br />
<br />
<span style="background-color: #3d85c6; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Tokerau Beach </span><br />
<b><img src="http://www.nz.open2view.com/assets/property/960/1/0/1087e1086d0c7de0b448c9eba2d916b1278a9683.jpeg" height="480" width="640" /></b><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Northland<b> 234 </b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"><b> <span style="color: #990000;">Lab</span> <span style="color: #274e13;">Green</span> <span style="color: #660000;">Left</span> <span style="color: #783f04;">NZF</span> <span style="color: #741b47;">Oppo</span> <span style="color: #0b5394;">Nat</span> <span style="color: #073763;">Govt </span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;">Cons</span> <span style="color: #351c75;">Right</span> </b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"><b> <span style="color: #990000;">15</span> <span style="color: #274e13;">5</span> <span style="color: #660000;">21 </span> <span style="color: #783f04;"> 20</span> <span style="color: #741b47;">41 </span> <span style="color: #0b5394;"> 54 </span><span style="color: #073763;"> 56</span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;">3 </span> <span style="color: #351c75;">59</span> </b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #999999;"><b> Left/Right Diff Oppo/Govt Diff Oppo/Right Diff </b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #999999;"><b> <span style="color: #351c75;"> + 38 </span> <span style="color: #073763;"> + 15 </span> <span style="color: #351c75;"> + 18 </span></b></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Northland + Te Tai Tokerau<b> 325 </b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><b style="background-color: #999999;"> <span style="color: #990000;">Lab</span> <span style="color: #274e13;">Green</span> <span style="color: #660000;">Left</span> <span style="color: #783f04;">NZF</span> <span style="color: #741b47;">Oppo</span> <span style="color: #0b5394;">Nat</span> <span style="color: #073763;">Govt</span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;">Cons</span> <span style="color: #351c75;">Right </span> </b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><b style="background-color: #999999;"> <span style="color: #990000;">19 </span> <span style="color: #274e13;">6</span> <span style="color: #660000;">34</span> <span style="color: #783f04;">19</span> <span style="color: #741b47;">53 </span> <span style="color: #0b5394;">40</span> <span style="color: #073763;"> 44 </span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;">2</span> <span style="color: #351c75;">46</span> </b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><b style="background-color: #999999;"> Left/Right Diff Oppo/Govt Diff Oppo/Right Diff </b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><b style="background-color: #999999;"> <span style="color: #351c75;">+ 12 </span> <span style="color: #741b47;"> + 9 + 7 </span></b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: #3d85c6; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Taipa </span><br />
<b><img src="http://s1.eventfinder.co.nz/uploads/locations/transformed/442343-16287-14.jpg" height="230" width="640" /></b><br />
<span style="color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"> Northland<b> 609 </b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><b style="background-color: #999999;"> <span style="color: #990000;">Lab</span> <span style="color: #274e13;">Green</span> <span style="color: #660000;">Left</span> <span style="color: #783f04;">NZF</span> </b><b style="background-color: #999999;"> </b><b style="background-color: #999999;"><span style="color: #741b47;">Oppo</span> <span style="color: #0b5394;">Nat</span> <span style="color: #073763;">Govt</span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;">Cons</span> <span style="color: #351c75;">Right</span> </b><b style="background-color: #999999;"> </b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><b style="background-color: #999999;"> <span style="color: #990000;">17</span> <span style="color: #274e13;">13 </span> <span style="color: #660000;">31</span> <span style="color: #783f04;">9 </span> <span style="color: #741b47;">40</span> <span style="color: #0b5394;">49</span> <span style="color: #073763;">51</span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;">7</span> <span style="color: #351c75;">59 </span> </b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><b style="background-color: #999999;"> Left/Right Diff Oppo/Govt Diff Oppo/Right Diff </b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #999999;"><b> <span style="color: #351c75;">+ 28</span> <span style="color: #073763;"> + 11 </span> <span style="color: #351c75;"> + 19</span> </b></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"> Northland + Te Tai Tokerau<b> 706 </b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #999999;"><b> <span style="color: #990000;">Lab</span> <span style="color: #274e13;">Green</span> <span style="color: #660000;">Left</span> <span style="color: #783f04;">NZF</span> <span style="color: #741b47;">Oppo</span> <span style="color: #0b5394;">Nat</span> <span style="color: #073763;">Govt</span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;">Cons</span> <span style="color: #351c75;">Right </span> </b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #999999;"><b> <span style="color: #990000;">20 </span> <span style="color: #274e13;">12</span> <span style="color: #660000;">35 </span> <span style="color: #783f04;">9</span> <span style="color: #741b47;">45</span> <span style="color: #0b5394;">44</span> <span style="color: #073763;">47</span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;">6 </span> <span style="color: #351c75;">54 </span> </b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #999999;"><b> Left/Right Diff Oppo/Govt Diff Oppo/Right Diff </b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #999999;"><b> <span style="color: #351c75;"> + 19</span> <span style="color: #073763;">+ 2 </span> <span style="color: #351c75;"> + 9 </span></b></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: #3d85c6; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Kerikeri </span><br />
<b><img src="http://www.kerikeri.co.nz/Headings/MainStreet_mid-winter.jpg" height="166" width="640" /></b><br />
<span style="color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"> Northland<b> 2531 </b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #999999;"><b> <span style="color: #990000;">Lab</span> <span style="color: #274e13;">Green</span> <span style="color: #660000;">Left </span> <span style="color: #783f04;"> NZF</span> <span style="color: #741b47;">Oppo</span> <span style="color: #0b5394;">Nat</span> <span style="color: #073763;">Govt </span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;">Cons</span> <span style="color: #351c75;">Right </span> </b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #999999;"><b> <span style="color: #990000;">17</span> <span style="color: #274e13;">14 </span> <span style="color: #660000;">31</span> <span style="color: #783f04;"> 9 </span><span style="color: #741b47;"> 40</span> <span style="color: #0b5394;"> 52</span> <span style="color: #073763;"> 53</span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;"> 6</span> <span style="color: #351c75;"> 59</span> </b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #999999;"><b> Left/Right Diff Oppo/Govt Diff Oppo/Right Diff </b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #999999;"><b> <span style="color: #351c75;"> + 28</span> <span style="color: #073763;"> + 13</span> <span style="color: #351c75;"> + 19</span> </b></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Northland + Te Tai Tokerau<b> 2743 </b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #999999;"><b> <span style="color: #990000;">Lab</span> <span style="color: #274e13;">Green </span><span style="color: #660000;">Left</span> <span style="color: #783f04;"> NZF</span> <span style="color: #741b47;">Oppo </span> <span style="color: #0b5394;">Nat </span><span style="color: #073763;">Govt</span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;">Cons </span><span style="color: #351c75;">Right </span> </b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #999999;"><b> <span style="color: #990000;">18 </span> <span style="color: #274e13;"> 13</span> <span style="color: #660000;"> 34 </span> <span style="color: #783f04;"> 9</span> <span style="color: #741b47;">43 </span> <span style="color: #0b5394;"> 49 </span><span style="color: #073763;"> 51 </span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;">5 </span> <span style="color: #351c75;">56 </span></b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #999999;"><b> Left/Right Diff Oppo/Govt Diff Oppo/Right Diff </b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #999999;"><b> <span style="color: #351c75;">+ 22</span> <span style="color: #073763;"> + 8</span> <span style="color: #351c75;">+ 13</span> </b></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: #0b5394; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"> Mangonui</span> </span><br />
<b><img src="http://www.aerialvision.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/mangonui-festival-pano-2.jpg" height="272" width="640" /></b><br />
<span style="color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"> Northland<b> 704 </b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><b style="background-color: #999999;"> <span style="color: #990000;"> Lab</span> <span style="color: #274e13;">Green</span> <span style="color: #660000;">Left </span> <span style="color: #783f04;"> NZF</span> <span style="color: #741b47;">Oppo </span> <span style="color: #0b5394;">Nat</span> <span style="color: #073763;">Govt</span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;">Cons</span> <span style="color: #351c75;">Right </span></b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><b style="background-color: #999999;"> <span style="color: #990000;"> 15</span> <span style="color: #274e13;">10</span> <span style="color: #660000;"> 26 </span> <span style="color: #783f04;"> 13</span> <span style="color: #741b47;"> 39 </span> <span style="color: #0b5394;"> 53 </span><span style="color: #073763;"> 54 </span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;"> 6</span> <span style="color: #351c75;">60 </span> </b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #999999;"><b> Left/Right Diff Oppo/Govt Diff Oppo/Right Diff </b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #999999;"><b> <span style="color: #351c75;"> + 34 </span> <span style="color: #073763;"> + 15 </span> <span style="color: #351c75;"> + 21</span> </b></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Northland + Te Tai Tokerau<b> 795 </b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #999999;"><b> <span style="color: #990000;"> Lab</span> <span style="color: #274e13;">Green</span> <span style="color: #660000;">Left </span> <span style="color: #783f04;"> NZF </span><span style="color: #741b47;">Oppo </span> <span style="color: #0b5394;"> Nat </span><span style="color: #073763;">Govt </span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;">Cons</span> <span style="color: #351c75;">Right</span> </b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #999999;"><b> <span style="color: #990000;">17 </span> <span style="color: #274e13;">10</span> <span style="color: #660000;"> 31 </span> <span style="color: #783f04;">12 </span> <span style="color: #741b47;">43 </span> <span style="color: #0b5394;"> 48 </span> <span style="color: #073763;">50</span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;"> 6 </span> <span style="color: #351c75;">55 </span> </b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #999999;"><b> Left/Right Diff Oppo/Govt Diff Oppo/Right Diff </b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #999999;"><b> <span style="color: #351c75;"> + 24 </span> <span style="color: #073763;"> + 7 </span> <span style="color: #351c75;">+ 12 </span> </b></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: #0b5394; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Mangawhai </span><br />
<b><img src="http://www.magicalmangawhai.co.nz/Headings/Mangawhai-Heads_Sail-Rock-Cafe.jpg" height="173" width="640" /></b><br />
<span style="color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"> Northland<b> 728 </b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><b style="background-color: #999999;"> <span style="color: #990000;">Lab</span> <span style="color: #274e13;">Green</span> <span style="color: #660000;">Left</span> <span style="color: #783f04;"> NZF</span><span style="color: #741b47;"> Oppo </span> <span style="color: #0b5394;"> Nat</span> <span style="color: #073763;">Govt</span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;">Cons </span><span style="color: #351c75;">Right </span> </b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><b style="background-color: #999999;"> <span style="color: #990000;"> 8 </span> <span style="color: #274e13;"> 13 </span><span style="color: #660000;"> 22 </span> <span style="color: #783f04;"> 17 </span><span style="color: #741b47;">38 </span> <span style="color: #0b5394;"> 50 </span><span style="color: #073763;"> 51 </span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;">10</span> <span style="color: #351c75;">61 </span> </b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><b style="background-color: #999999;"> Left/Right Diff Oppo/Govt Diff Oppo/Right Diff </b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><b style="background-color: #999999;"> <span style="color: #351c75;"> + 39 </span> <span style="color: #073763;"> + 13 </span> <span style="color: #351c75;"> + 23</span> </b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Northland + Te Tai Tokerau<b> 754 </b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><b style="background-color: #999999;"> <span style="color: #990000;">Lab </span><span style="color: #274e13;">Green </span><span style="color: #660000;">Left </span> <span style="color: #783f04;"> NZF</span> <span style="color: #741b47;">Oppo </span> <span style="color: #0b5394;"> Nat </span><span style="color: #073763;">Govt </span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;"> Cons</span><span style="color: #351c75;"> Right</span> </b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><b style="background-color: #999999;"> <span style="color: #990000;">9 </span> <span style="color: #274e13;">13</span> <span style="color: #660000;"> 23 </span> <span style="color: #783f04;"> 17 </span> <span style="color: #741b47;">40 </span> <span style="color: #0b5394;"> 49 </span><span style="color: #073763;"> 49 </span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;">10 </span> <span style="color: #351c75;">59 </span> </b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><b style="background-color: #999999;"> Left/Right Diff Oppo/Govt Diff Oppo/Right Diff </b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><b style="background-color: #999999;"> <span style="color: #351c75;"> + 36</span> <span style="color: #073763;"> + 9</span> <span style="color: #351c75;">+ 19</span> </b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: #0b5394; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Wellsford </span><br />
<b><img src="http://www.newzealandstocklibrary.co.nz/gallery/North_Island/RODNEY/Wellsford/NZSL-SB-002436.jpg" height="410" width="640" /></b><br />
<span style="color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"> Northland<b> 723 </b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><b style="background-color: #999999;"> <span style="color: #990000;"> Lab</span><span style="color: #274e13;"> Green</span> <span style="color: #660000;">Left </span> <span style="color: #783f04;"> NZF </span><span style="color: #741b47;">Oppo </span> <span style="color: #0b5394;"> Nat</span><span style="color: #073763;"> Govt </span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;">Cons </span><span style="color: #351c75;">Right </span> </b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><b style="background-color: #999999;"> <span style="color: #990000;"> 15 </span> <span style="color: #274e13;">7 </span> <span style="color: #660000;">23 </span> <span style="color: #783f04;"> 15 </span> <span style="color: #741b47;">38 </span> <span style="color: #0b5394;"> 53 </span> <span style="color: #073763;">55 </span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;">7 </span> <span style="color: #351c75;">62 </span> </b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><b style="background-color: #999999;"> Left/Right Diff Oppo/Govt Diff Oppo/Right Diff </b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><b style="background-color: #999999;"> <span style="color: #351c75;"> + 39 </span> <span style="color: #073763;"> + 17 </span> <span style="color: #351c75;">+ 24 </span> </b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Northland + Te Tai Tokerau<b> 800 </b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><b style="background-color: #999999;"> <span style="color: #990000;">Lab</span> <span style="color: #274e13;">Green</span> <span style="color: #660000;">Left </span> <span style="color: #783f04;"> NZF</span> <span style="color: #741b47;">Oppo</span> <span style="color: #0b5394;"> Nat</span><span style="color: #073763;"> Govt</span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;">Cons</span> <span style="color: #351c75;">Right </span> </b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><b style="background-color: #999999;"> <span style="color: #990000;">16</span> <span style="color: #274e13;"> 8</span> <span style="color: #660000;"> 26 </span> <span style="color: #783f04;"> 15</span> <span style="color: #741b47;">40 </span> <span style="color: #0b5394;"> 50 </span> <span style="color: #073763;">52 </span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;">7 </span><span style="color: #351c75;"> 59 </span></b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><b style="background-color: #999999;"> Left/Right Diff Oppo/Govt Diff Oppo/Right Diff </b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><b style="background-color: #999999;"> <span style="color: #351c75;"> + 33 </span> <span style="color: #073763;">+ 12 </span> <span style="color: #351c75;"> + 19 </span> </b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: #0b5394; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Okaihau </span><br />
<b><img src="http://pinker.wjh.harvard.edu/photos/new_zealand/images/Okaihau%20church.jpg" height="425" width="640" /></b><br />
<span style="color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"> Northland<b> 333 </b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><b style="background-color: #999999;"> <span style="color: #990000;"> Lab</span> <span style="color: #274e13;">Green</span> <span style="color: #660000;">Left</span> <span style="color: #783f04;"> NZF</span> <span style="color: #741b47;">Oppo</span> <span style="color: #0b5394;"> Nat</span> <span style="color: #073763;">Govt </span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;">Cons</span><span style="color: #351c75;"> Right</span> </b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><b style="background-color: #999999;"> <span style="color: #990000;"> 14 </span> <span style="color: #274e13;">7</span> <span style="color: #660000;">23 </span> <span style="color: #783f04;"> 13 </span><span style="color: #741b47;"> 36 </span> <span style="color: #0b5394;"> 53</span> <span style="color: #073763;">55 </span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;"> 5 </span><span style="color: #351c75;">59 </span></b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><b style="background-color: #999999;"> Left/Right Diff Oppo/Govt Diff Oppo/Right Diff </b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><b style="background-color: #999999;"> <span style="color: #351c75;"> + 36</span> <span style="color: #073763;">+ 19</span> <span style="color: #351c75;"> + 23</span> </b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Northland + Te Tai Tokerau<b> 414 </b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><b style="background-color: #999999;"> <span style="color: #990000;"> Lab</span> <span style="color: #274e13;">Green</span> <span style="color: #660000;">Left</span> <span style="color: #783f04;"> NZF</span><span style="color: #741b47;"> Oppo </span> <span style="color: #0b5394;"> Nat </span><span style="color: #073763;">Govt </span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;">Cons</span> <span style="color: #351c75;">Right</span> </b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><b style="background-color: #999999;"> <span style="color: #990000;"> 19</span> <span style="color: #274e13;"> 8</span> <span style="color: #660000;"> 33 </span> <span style="color: #783f04;"> 13</span> <span style="color: #741b47;">45 </span> <span style="color: #0b5394;"> 43 </span> <span style="color: #073763;"> 46</span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;"> 4 </span> <span style="color: #351c75;">50</span> </b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><b style="background-color: #999999;"> Left/Right Diff Oppo/Govt Diff Oppo/Right Diff </b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><b style="background-color: #999999;"> <span style="color: #351c75;"> + 17 </span> <span style="color: #073763;"> + 1</span> <span style="color: #351c75;">+ 5 </span></b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: #0b5394; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Pukenui </span><br />
<b><img src="http://www.nzmotels.co.nz/assets/Uploads/Pukenui-Houhora-Harbour-aerial-shot-incl-Motel-Homepage.jpg" height="432" width="640" /></b><br />
<span style="color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"> Northland<b> 296 </b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><b style="background-color: #999999;"> <span style="color: #990000;">Lab</span> <span style="color: #274e13;">Green </span><span style="color: #660000;">Left </span> <span style="color: #783f04;"> NZF</span><span style="color: #741b47;"> Oppo </span> <span style="color: #0b5394;">Nat</span> <span style="color: #073763;">Govt </span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;">Cons</span> <span style="color: #351c75;">Right </span> </b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><b style="background-color: #999999;"> <span style="color: #990000;"> 17</span> <span style="color: #274e13;"> 8 </span> <span style="color: #660000;">26 </span> <span style="color: #783f04;"> 10 </span><span style="color: #741b47;"> 36 </span> <span style="color: #0b5394;"> 55 </span><span style="color: #073763;"> 56 </span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;">6 </span><span style="color: #351c75;"> 62</span> </b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #999999;"><b> Left/Right Diff Oppo/Govt Diff Oppo/Right Diff </b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #999999;"><b> <span style="color: #351c75;"> + 36</span> <span style="color: #073763;"> + 20 </span> <span style="color: #351c75;">+ 26</span> </b></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Northland + Te Tai Tokerau<b> 352 </b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><b style="background-color: #999999;"> <span style="color: #990000;">Lab </span><span style="color: #274e13;">Green</span> <span style="color: #660000;">Left </span> <span style="color: #783f04;"> NZF</span> <span style="color: #741b47;">Oppo </span> <span style="color: #0b5394;"> Nat </span><span style="color: #073763;">Govt </span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;"> Cons </span><span style="color: #351c75;">Right </span> </b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><b style="background-color: #999999;"> <span style="color: #990000;">17 </span> <span style="color: #274e13;">8 </span><span style="color: #660000;">28 </span> <span style="color: #783f04;">11 </span> <span style="color: #741b47;">40 </span> <span style="color: #0b5394;"> 50 </span><span style="color: #073763;"> 53</span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;"> 5 </span> <span style="color: #351c75;">59</span> </b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #999999;"><b> Left/Right Diff Oppo/Govt Diff Oppo/Right Diff </b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #999999;"><b> <span style="color: #351c75;"> + 31</span> <span style="color: #073763;"> + 13 </span> <span style="color: #351c75;">+ 19</span> </b></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: #0b5394; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Ruawai </span><br />
<b><img src="http://www.newzealandstocklibrary.co.nz/gallery/NORTH_ISLAND_RIVER-IMAGES/Northland_River_Images/Dargaville_Wairoa_River/NZSL-SB-001529.jpg" height="416" width="640" /></b><br />
<span style="color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"> Northland<b> 427 </b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><b style="background-color: #999999;"> <span style="color: #990000;"> Lab</span><span style="color: #274e13;"> Green</span> <span style="color: #660000;">Left</span> <span style="color: #783f04;"> NZF</span><span style="color: #741b47;"> Oppo </span> <span style="color: #0b5394;">Nat</span><span style="color: #073763;"> Govt </span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;"> Cons </span><span style="color: #351c75;">Right </span> </b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><b style="background-color: #999999;"> <span style="color: #990000;"> 18</span> <span style="color: #274e13;"> 5 </span><span style="color: #660000;"> 23 </span> <span style="color: #783f04;"> 13 </span> <span style="color: #741b47;"> 36 </span> <span style="color: #0b5394;"> 55</span> <span style="color: #073763;"> 56 </span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;">6 </span> <span style="color: #351c75;">62</span> </b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><b style="background-color: #999999;"> Left/Right Diff Oppo/Govt Diff Oppo/Right Diff </b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><b style="background-color: #999999;"> <span style="color: #351c75;">+ 39 </span> <span style="color: #073763;"> + 20</span> <span style="color: #351c75;"> + 26</span> </b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Northland + Te Tai Tokerau<b> 461 </b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><b style="background-color: #999999;"> <span style="color: #990000;"> Lab</span> <span style="color: #274e13;">Green</span> <span style="color: #660000;">Left </span> <span style="color: #783f04;"> NZF</span> <span style="color: #741b47;">Oppo </span> <span style="color: #0b5394;"> Nat</span><span style="color: #073763;"> Govt </span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;">Cons</span><span style="color: #351c75;"> Right </span> </b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><b style="background-color: #999999;"> <span style="color: #990000;"> 19</span> <span style="color: #274e13;">5 </span><span style="color: #660000;">25</span> <span style="color: #783f04;">14</span> <span style="color: #741b47;"> 39 </span> <span style="color: #0b5394;"> 52 </span> <span style="color: #073763;">53 </span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;"> 6 </span> <span style="color: #351c75;"> 59 </span> </b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><b style="background-color: #999999;"> Left/Right Diff Oppo/Govt Diff Oppo/Right Diff </b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><b style="background-color: #999999;"> <span style="color: #351c75;">+ 34</span> <span style="color: #073763;"> + 14 </span> <span style="color: #351c75;">+ 20</span> </b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: #0b5394; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Mangawhai Heads </span><br />
<b><img src="http://192.185.24.146/~seaviewl/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/slider3-1200x350.jpg" height="186" width="640" /></b><br />
<span style="color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"> Northland<b> 465 </b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #999999;"><b> <span style="color: #990000;"> Lab</span> <span style="color: #274e13;">Green</span> <span style="color: #660000;">Left</span> <span style="color: #783f04;"> NZF</span><span style="color: #741b47;"> Oppo </span> <span style="color: #0b5394;">Nat</span> <span style="color: #073763;">Govt </span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;">Cons </span><span style="color: #351c75;">Right </span> </b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><b><span style="background-color: #999999;"> <span style="color: #990000;">13</span> <span style="color: #274e13;"> 9</span></span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #274e13;"> </span><span style="background-color: #999999;"> </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #660000;">22 </span><span style="background-color: #999999;"> </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #783f04;"> 14 </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #741b47;">36 </span><span style="background-color: #999999;"> </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #0b5394;"> 54 </span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #073763;"> 56 </span><span style="background-color: #999999;"> </span></b><b><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #3d85c6;">8 </span><span style="color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: #999999;"> 64 </span> </span></b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #999999;"><b> Left/Right Diff Oppo/Govt Diff Oppo/Right Diff </b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #999999;"><b> <span style="color: #351c75;"> + 42 </span> <span style="color: #073763;"> + 20 </span> <span style="color: #351c75;">+ 28 </span></b></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Northland + Te Tai Tokerau<b> 476 </b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><b style="background-color: #999999;"> <span style="color: #990000;">Lab</span> <span style="color: #274e13;">Green</span><span style="color: #660000;"> Left </span> <span style="color: #783f04;"> NZF</span><span style="color: #741b47;"> Oppo </span> <span style="color: #0b5394;"> Nat </span><span style="color: #073763;">Govt </span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;">Cons</span> <span style="color: #351c75;">Right</span> </b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #999999;"><b> <span style="color: #990000;"> 13</span> <span style="color: #274e13;"> 9</span> <span style="color: #660000;"> 23 </span> <span style="color: #783f04;"> 14 </span><span style="color: #741b47;"> 37</span> <span style="color: #0b5394;"> 53 </span> <span style="color: #073763;"> 55 </span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;">8 </span> <span style="color: #351c75;"> 62 </span> </b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #999999;"><b> Left/Right Diff Oppo/Govt Diff Oppo/Right Diff </b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #999999;"><b> <span style="color: #351c75;"> + 39 </span> <span style="color: #073763;"> + 18 </span> <span style="color: #351c75;"> + 25 </span> </b></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> </span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #999999;"><b><br /></b></span></span>
<span style="background-color: #0b5394; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Waipapa </span><br />
<b><img src="http://www.kerikeri.co.nz/Headings/StoneStore2_960.jpg" height="168" width="640" /></b><br />
<span style="color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"> Northland<b> 1029 </b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><b style="background-color: #999999;"> <span style="color: #990000;"> Lab</span> <span style="color: #274e13;">Green</span> <span style="color: #660000;">Left</span> <span style="color: #783f04;"> NZF</span> <span style="color: #741b47;">Oppo </span> <span style="color: #0b5394;"> Nat</span> <span style="color: #073763;">Govt </span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;">Cons</span> <span style="color: #351c75;">Right</span> </b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><b style="background-color: #999999;"> <span style="color: #990000;">10</span> <span style="color: #274e13;">11</span> <span style="color: #660000;"> 22 </span> <span style="color: #783f04;"> 11 </span> <span style="color: #741b47;">33 </span> <span style="color: #0b5394;"> 58 </span><span style="color: #073763;"> 59</span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;">7 </span> <span style="color: #351c75;"> 66 </span> </b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #999999;"><b> Left/Right Diff Oppo/Govt Diff Oppo/Right Diff </b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #999999;"><b> <span style="color: #351c75;"> + 44</span> <span style="color: #073763;">+ 26</span> <span style="color: #351c75;">+ 33 </span> </b></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Northland + Te Tai Tokerau<b> 1090 </b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><b style="background-color: #999999;"> <span style="color: #990000;"> Lab </span><span style="color: #274e13;">Green</span><span style="color: #660000;"> Left </span> <span style="color: #783f04;"> NZF </span><span style="color: #741b47;">Oppo </span> <span style="color: #0b5394;"> Nat</span><span style="color: #073763;"> Govt </span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;">Cons</span> <span style="color: #351c75;">Right </span> </b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><b style="background-color: #999999;"> <span style="color: #990000;"> 12 </span> <span style="color: #274e13;"> 11</span> <span style="color: #660000;"> 24 </span> <span style="color: #783f04;"> 11</span> <span style="color: #741b47;">36 </span> <span style="color: #0b5394;"> 55 </span><span style="color: #073763;"> 57 </span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;">7 </span> <span style="color: #351c75;">63 </span></b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #999999;"><b> Left/Right Diff Oppo/Govt Diff Oppo/Right Diff </b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #999999;"><b> <span style="color: #351c75;">+ 39</span> <span style="color: #073763;"> + 21</span> <span style="color: #351c75;">+ 27</span> </b></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: #0b5394; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Paihia </span><br />
<b><img src="http://www.fourcorners.co.nz/content/images/4280/978x255crop/Paihia-waterfront-Bay-of-Islands-Destination-N.jpg" height="166" width="640" /></b><br />
<span style="color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"> Northland<b> 620 </b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><b style="background-color: #999999;"> <span style="color: #990000;"> Lab</span> <span style="color: #274e13;">Green</span> <span style="color: #660000;">Left </span> <span style="color: #783f04;">NZF</span> <span style="color: #741b47;">Oppo</span> <span style="color: #0b5394;"> Nat</span> <span style="color: #073763;">Govt </span> </b><b style="background-color: #999999;"><span style="color: #3d85c6;">Cons</span></b><b style="background-color: #999999;"> <span style="color: #351c75;">Right </span></b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><b style="background-color: #999999;"> <span style="color: #990000;"> 14 </span> <span style="color: #274e13;">11 </span><span style="color: #660000;"> 25 </span> <span style="color: #783f04;"> 8 </span><span style="color: #741b47;"> 33 </span> <span style="color: #0b5394;"> 62 </span> <span style="color: #073763;"> 63 </span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;">3 </span> <span style="color: #351c75;">66 </span> </b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><b style="background-color: #999999;"> Left/Right Diff Oppo/Govt Diff Oppo/Right Diff </b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><b style="background-color: #999999;"> <span style="color: #351c75;"> + 41</span> <span style="color: #073763;"> + 30 </span> <span style="color: #351c75;">+ 33</span> </b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Northland + Te Tai Tokerau<b> 748 </b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><b style="background-color: #999999;"> <span style="color: #990000;"> Lab</span> <span style="color: #274e13;">Green</span> <span style="color: #660000;">Left </span> <span style="color: #783f04;"> NZF</span><span style="color: #741b47;"> Oppo </span> <span style="color: #0b5394;"> Nat</span> <span style="color: #073763;">Govt </span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;">Cons</span> <span style="color: #351c75;">Right</span> </b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><b style="background-color: #999999;"> <span style="color: #990000;">18</span> <span style="color: #274e13;">11</span> <span style="color: #660000;">31 </span> <span style="color: #783f04;"> 10 </span><span style="color: #741b47;"> 41 </span> <span style="color: #0b5394;"> 53</span> <span style="color: #073763;"> 55 </span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;"> 2 </span> <span style="color: #351c75;">57 </span> </b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><b style="background-color: #999999;"> Left/Right Diff Oppo/Govt Diff Oppo/Right Diff </b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><b style="background-color: #999999;"> <span style="color: #351c75;">+ 26</span> <span style="color: #073763;"> + 14 </span> <span style="color: #351c75;"> + 16</span> </b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: #0b5394; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Paparoa </span><br />
<b><img src="http://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/rw-nz-media/ListingResources/Photos/WAR/WAR21544/Large9.jpg" height="343" width="640" /></b><br />
<span style="color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"> Northland<b> 528 </b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><b style="background-color: #999999;"> <span style="color: #990000;">Lab</span> <span style="color: #274e13;">Green</span> <span style="color: #660000;">Left </span> <span style="color: #783f04;">NZF</span> <span style="color: #741b47;">Oppo</span> <span style="color: #0b5394;"> Nat</span> <span style="color: #073763;">Govt</span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;">Cons</span> <span style="color: #351c75;">Right</span> </b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><b style="background-color: #999999;"> <span style="color: #990000;"> 10</span> <span style="color: #274e13;">8 </span> <span style="color: #660000;">20 </span> <span style="color: #783f04;"> 12 </span> <span style="color: #741b47;">32 </span> <span style="color: #0b5394;"> 54 </span> <span style="color: #073763;">54 </span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;">12</span> <span style="color: #351c75;"> 66 </span> </b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #999999;"><b> Left/Right Diff Oppo/Govt Diff Oppo/Right Diff </b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #999999;"><b> <span style="color: #351c75;">+ 46 </span> <span style="color: #073763;"> + 22</span> <span style="color: #351c75;"> + 34</span> </b></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Northland + Te Tai Tokerau<b> 547 </b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><b style="background-color: #999999;"> <span style="color: #990000;">Lab</span> <span style="color: #274e13;">Green</span> <span style="color: #660000;">Left </span> <span style="color: #783f04;"> NZF</span> <span style="color: #741b47;">Oppo</span> <span style="color: #0b5394;"> Nat</span> <span style="color: #073763;">Govt </span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;">Cons</span> <span style="color: #351c75;">Right </span> </b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><b style="background-color: #999999;"> <span style="color: #990000;">11</span> <span style="color: #274e13;"> 8 </span> <span style="color: #660000;">20 </span> <span style="color: #783f04;">13 </span><span style="color: #741b47;"> 33 </span> <span style="color: #0b5394;"> 53 </span> <span style="color: #073763;">53</span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;">11</span> <span style="color: #351c75;">65 </span> </b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #999999;"><b> Left/Right Diff Oppo/Govt Diff Oppo/Right Diff </b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #999999;"><b> <span style="color: #351c75;"> + 45 </span> <span style="color: #073763;">+ 20 </span> <span style="color: #351c75;"> + 32 </span></b></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> </span><br />
<br />
<b>(3) Map of 2014 Party Support</b><br />
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I've created a Map of the Booth-by-Booth 2014 <em>Party-Vote</em> in Northland here...<br />
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<a href="http://www.scribblemaps.com/maps/view/Northland%20Party-Vote%202014:%20Booth-by-Booth/O0LSZEvYA5">http://www.scribblemaps.com/maps/view/Northland%20Party-Vote%202014:%20Booth-by-Booth/O0LSZEvYA5</a><br />
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I'm toying with the idea of (somewhat ostentatiously) calling the Red communities of Northland the <i style="font-weight: bold;">Hokianga-Kaikohe Red Belt</i>. The strongly Left/Oppo-voting region starts on the Hokianga in the west (Omapere-Opononi / Rawene / Kohukohu and a few nearby communities) and then heads east to the larger town of Kaikohe before striking further east into otherwise deep Blue territory with the Red working-class Maori stronghold of Moerewa and the Orange tourist town of Kawakawa. Having said that, as you can see by the size of the circles (denoting number of votes) the Red Belt towns are absolutely dwarfed by the Blue towns of the Bay of Islands, Kaipara, Doubtless Bay and elsewhere.<br />
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<b>(4) New Zealand First 2014 Strongholds</b><br />
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11 Northland communities recording the highest NZF <i>Party-Vote</i> in 2014 (excludes small booths).<br />
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1. Tokerau Beach <b>20%</b><br />
2. Kaikohe <b>19%</b><br />
3. Te Kopuru <b>18%</b><br />
4. Dargaville<b> 17%</b><br />
5. Mangawhai<b> 17%</b><br />
6. Awanui<b> 15%</b><br />
7. Kaitaia<b> 15%</b><br />
8. Maungaturoto<b> 15%</b><br />
9. Wellsford<b> 15%</b><br />
10. Mangawhai Heads<b> 14%</b><br />
11. Moerewa<b> 14%</b><br />
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<br />swordfishhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11395947680707181966noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2650303453151499427.post-38312008890749540032015-02-24T23:34:00.000-08:002015-02-24T23:34:28.916-08:00Troops to Iraq - Colmar Brunton Poll <img height="384" src="http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2009/2/18/1234946451833/US-troops-set-out-on-a-pa-001.jpg" width="640" /><br />
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<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> One News Colmar Brunton (Feb 2015) </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> <strong><em>New Zealand Troops - Middle East </em></strong></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #999999; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: black;">Q: "Do you support or oppose sending </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #999999; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: black;"> New Zealand troops </span></span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: black;">to the </span></span><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: black;">Middle East, </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #999999; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: black;"> to help train security forces to fight ISIS" ? </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #666666; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><strong><em> </em></strong>Demographic Oppose Support Don't Know </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #999999; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: black;"><strong>Entire Sample</strong> <strong>42 48 10</strong> </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #666666; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Higher than Average <strong><em>Support</em> </strong></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #999999; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #741b47;"><strong>Male - 57 -</strong> </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #999999; color: #741b47; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #0b5394;"><strong>Nat Supporters - 63 -</strong> </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #666666; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><strong> </strong>Higher than Average<em> <strong>Oppose </strong></em></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #999999; color: #0b5394; font-size: x-large;"> <strong><span style="color: #990000;">Lab Supporters 56 - - </span></strong></span><br />
<strong><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #990000; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #38761d;">Green Supporters 60 - - </span></span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #38761d; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #b45f06;">NZF Supporters 60 - - </span></span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #b45f06; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #660000;">Maori (Ethnicity) 53 - - </span></span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="background-color: #999999; color: #660000; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #351c75;">Low Income 50 - - </span></span></strong><br />
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<strong><span style="background-color: #666666; color: #351c75; font-size: x-large;"></span></strong><br />swordfishhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11395947680707181966noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2650303453151499427.post-33836927598586153842015-02-22T15:53:00.000-08:002015-02-22T15:57:43.612-08:00Two New Polls<br />
<img src="http://newsjunkiepost.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/08/public-opinion.jpg" height="425" width="640" /><br />
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<span style="background-color: #999999; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> <strong> </strong><span style="color: black;"><strong>Table:</strong> February 2015 <strong><em>Roy Morgan</em></strong> and <strong><em>Colmar Brunton </em></strong></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #999999; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: black;"><strong><em> </em></strong>(relative to 2014 Election) </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: black; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Party/Bloc 2014 Election RM Diff CB Diff </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><em> Left</em> </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #666666; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> <strong><span style="color: #cc0000;">Labour</span> 25.1 30 </strong>+ 4.9 <strong>31 </strong>+ 5.9 </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #666666; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><strong> <span style="color: #38761d;"> </span><span style="color: #6aa84f;">Green </span> 10.7 12 </strong>+ 1.3 <strong>10 </strong>- 0.7 </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #666666; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><strong> <span style="color: #cc0000;">Lab</span><span style="color: black;">+<span style="color: #6aa84f;">Grn</span> </span> 35.8 42 </strong>+ 6.2 <strong>41 </strong>+ 5.2 </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #666666; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><strong> <span style="color: #674ea7;"> </span><span style="color: #8e7cc3;">IMP </span> 1.4 0 </strong>- 1.4 <strong>0.4 </strong>- 1.0 </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #666666; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><strong> <span style="color: #660000;"> </span><span style="color: #990000;">Left Bloc</span> 37.2 42 </strong>+ 4.8 <strong>41.4 </strong>+ 4.2 </span><br />
<em><span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Oppo </span></em><br />
<span style="background-color: #666666; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><strong> <span style="color: #e69138;">NZF </span> 8.7 6 </strong>- 2.7 <strong>6 </strong>- 2.7<strong> </strong></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #666666; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><strong> <span style="color: #a64d79;">Oppo Bloc</span> 45.9 48 </strong>+ 2.1 <strong> 47.4 </strong>+ 1.5 </span><br />
<em><span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Govt </span></em><br />
<span style="background-color: #666666; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><em> <span style="color: #3d85c6;"> </span></em><span style="color: #3d85c6;"><strong>National </strong></span><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><strong>47.0 49 </strong>+ 2.0 <strong>49 </strong>+ 2.0 </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #666666; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><strong> <span style="color: #660000;"> Maori</span> 1.3 1 </strong>- 0.3 <strong>1.5 </strong>+ 0.2 </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #666666; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><strong> <span style="color: #6fa8dc;">ACT </span> 0.7 0 </strong>- 0.7 <strong>0.3 </strong>- 0.4 </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #666666; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><strong> <span style="color: #d5a6bd;">UF </span> 0.2 0 </strong>- 0.2 <strong>0 </strong>- 0.2 </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #666666; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><strong> <span style="color: #0b5394;">Govt Bloc</span> 49.3 50 </strong>+ 0.7 <strong>50.8 </strong>+ 1.5 </span><br />
<em><span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Right </span></em><br />
<span style="background-color: #666666; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><strong> <span style="color: #b4a7d6;">Cons </span> </strong></span><span style="background-color: #666666; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><strong> 4.0 1.5 </strong>- 2.5 <strong>1.4 </strong>- 2.6 </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #666666; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><strong> <span style="color: #351c75;"> Right Bloc</span> 53.2 51.5 </strong>- 1.7 <strong>52.2 </strong>- 1.0 </span><br />
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<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"></span><br />swordfishhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11395947680707181966noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2650303453151499427.post-18672369153907532732014-10-17T15:13:00.000-07:002014-10-17T18:11:13.369-07:00The Splits: Epsom / Ohariu Split Vote<br />
<img src="http://www.radionz.co.nz/assets/news/25064/eight_col_Dunne_Seymour_RNZ.jpg?1411937519" /><br />
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<span style="font-size: x-large;"><strong>Epsom vote</strong></span><br />
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<span style="color: #3d85c6; font-size: x-large;"><strong>Act </strong><span style="color: black;"><strong>2011</strong><em> Party-Vote </em><strong>3% </strong>(939 votes), <em>Candidate-Vote </em><strong>44% </strong>(15,835)</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"> <strong>2014</strong><em> Party-Vote </em><strong>3%</strong> (1,023), <em>Candidate-Vote</em><strong> 43%</strong> (15,966)</span><br />
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<span style="color: #073763; font-size: x-large;"><strong>Nat</strong><span style="color: black;"><strong> 2011 </strong><em>Party-Vote</em><strong> 65%</strong> (23,725), <em>Candidate-Vote</em><strong> 38%</strong> (13,574)</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"> <strong>2014</strong><em> Party-Vote</em><strong> 64%</strong> (23,904), <em>Candidate-Vote</em><strong> 32%</strong> (11,716)</span><br />
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<span style="color: #cc0000; font-size: x-large;"><strong>Lab </strong><span style="color: black;"><strong>2011</strong><em> Party-Vote</em><strong> 16%</strong> (5,716), <em>Candidate-Vote</em><strong> 10%</strong> (3,751)</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"> <strong>2014</strong><em> Party-Vote</em><strong> 13%</strong> (5,045), <em>Candidate-Vote</em><strong> 9%</strong> (3,470)</span><br />
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<span style="color: #38761d; font-size: x-large;"><strong>Green </strong><span style="color: black;"><strong>2011</strong><em> Party-Vote</em><strong> 12%</strong> (4,424), <em>Candidate-Vote</em><strong> 6%</strong> (2,160)</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"> <strong>2014</strong><em> Party-Vote</em><strong> 13%</strong> (4,706), <em>Candidate-Vote</em> <strong>8%</strong> (3,021)</span><br />
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<span style="color: #674ea7; font-size: x-large;"><strong>Cons</strong><span style="color: black;"><strong> 2011</strong><em> Party-Vote</em><strong> 1%</strong> (412), <em>Candidate-Vote</em><strong> 1%</strong> (342)</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><strong> 2014</strong><em> Party-Vote</em><strong> 2%</strong> (932), <em>Candidate-Vote</em><strong> 5%</strong> (1,725)</span><br />
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<strong><span style="font-size: x-large;">Epsom Split Vote</span></strong><br />
<em>(To read: <strong><span style="color: #3d85c6;">Act</span></strong> received <strong><span style="color: #3d85c6;">939 Party-Votes</span></strong> in Epsom in 2011, 80% of those 939 Act voters (751 voters) cast their Candidate-Vote for Banks, 14% (131) cast their Candidate-Vote for Goldsmith etc))</em><br />
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<strong><span style="color: #444444; font-size: x-large;">Party-Vote................................Candidate-Vote....................................</span></strong><br />
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<span style="color: #3d85c6; font-size: x-large;"><strong><span style="color: black;">2011 </span>Act </strong>939<span style="color: black;">......<strong>Banks (Act) 80%</strong> (751), <strong>Goldsmith (Nat) 14%</strong> (131),</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"> <strong>Parker (Lab) 1%</strong> (6<strong>), Hay (Green) 0</strong>% (4)</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: x-large;"><strong>2014 </strong><span style="color: #3d85c6;"><strong>Act</strong> 1,023</span><span style="color: black;">......<strong>Seymour (Act) 76%</strong> (781),<strong> Goldsmith (Nat) 18%</strong> (181),<strong> Wood (Lab) 1%</strong> (12),<strong> Genter (Green) 1%</strong> (11)</span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #073763;"><strong><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: black;">2011</span> Nat </span></strong> <span style="font-size: x-large;">23,725<span style="color: black;">......<strong>Banks (Act) 60%</strong> (14,268), <strong>Goldsmith (Nat) 34%</strong> (8,126) <strong>Parker (Lab) 1%</strong> (185), <strong>Hay (Green) 2%</strong> (498)</span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: x-large;"><strong>2014</strong><span style="color: #073763;"><strong> Nat</strong> 23,904</span><span style="color: black;">......<strong>Seymour (Act) 60%</strong> (14,364),<strong> Goldsmith (Nat) 30%</strong> (7,186), <strong>Wood (Lab) 1%</strong> (208),<strong> Genter (Green) 2%</strong> (540)</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: x-large;"><strong>2011 </strong><span style="color: #cc0000;"><strong>Lab</strong> 5,716</span><span style="color: black;">......<strong>Banks (Act) 5%</strong> (267), <strong>Goldsmith (Nat) 35% </strong>(2,028<strong>), Parker (Lab) 47</strong>% (2,705<strong>), Hay (Green) 7%</strong> (414)</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: black;"><strong>2014</strong><span style="color: #cc0000;"><strong> Lab</strong> 5,045</span></span><span style="color: black;">......<strong>Seymour (Act) 3%</strong> (160),<strong> Goldsmith (Nat) 31%</strong> (1,553), <strong>Wood (Lab) 50%</strong> (2,501), <strong>Genter (Green) 10%</strong> (520)</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: #38761d;"><strong><span style="color: black;">2011</span> Green</strong> </span><span style="color: #38761d;">4,424</span><span style="color: black;">......<strong>Banks (Act) 4</strong></span><span style="color: black;">% (184), <strong>Goldsmith (Nat) 54%</strong> (2,401), <strong>Parker (Lab) 13</strong>% (582), <strong>Hay (Green) 25%</strong> (1,092)</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: x-large;"><strong>2014</strong><span style="color: #38761d;"><strong> Green</strong> 4,706</span><span style="color: black;">......<strong>Seymour (Act) 4%</strong> (168), <strong>Goldsmith (Nat) 44%</strong> (2,049), <strong>Wood (Lab) 11%</strong> (523), <strong>Genter (Green) 37%</strong> (1,732)</span></span><br />
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<strong><span style="font-size: x-large;">Ohariu vote</span></strong><br />
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<span style="color: #741b47; font-size: x-large;"><strong>UF</strong><span style="color: black;"><strong> 2011</strong><em> Party-Vote</em><strong> 2%</strong> (672),<em> Candidate-Vote</em><strong> 39%</strong> (14,357)</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"> <strong>2014</strong><em> Party-Vote</em><strong> 1%</strong> (273),<em> Candidate-Vote</em><strong> 37%</strong> (13,569)</span><br />
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<span style="color: #073763; font-size: x-large;"><strong>Nat</strong><span style="color: black;"><strong> 2011</strong><em> Party-Vote</em><strong> 50%</strong> (18,764),<em> Candidate-Vote</em><strong> 19%</strong> (6,907)</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><strong> 2014</strong><em> Party-Vote</em><strong> 50%</strong> (18,810),<em> Candidate-Vote</em><strong> 17%</strong> (6,120)</span><br />
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<span style="color: #cc0000; font-size: x-large;"><strong>Lab</strong><span style="color: black;"><strong> 2011</strong><em> Party-Vote</em><strong> 27%</strong> (10,036), <em> Candidate-Vote</em><strong> 35%</strong> (12,965)</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><strong> 2014</strong><em> Party-Vote</em><strong> 24%</strong> (8,771),<em> Candidate-Vote</em><strong> 35%</strong> (12,859)</span><br />
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<span style="color: #38761d; font-size: x-large;"><strong>Green</strong><span style="color: black;"><strong> 2011</strong><em> Party-Vote</em><strong> 14%</strong> (5,453), <em> Candidate-Vote</em><strong> 6%</strong> (2,160)</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><strong> 2014</strong><em> Party-Vote</em><strong> 15%</strong> (5,623),<em> Candidate-Vote</em><strong> 8%</strong> (2,764)</span><br />
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<strong><span style="font-size: x-large;">Ohariu Split Vote</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="color: #444444; font-size: x-large;">Party-Vote......................................Candidate-Vote...........................</span></strong><br />
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<span style="color: black; font-size: x-large;"><strong>2011</strong><span style="color: #741b47;"><strong> UF</strong> 672</span><span style="color: black;">......<strong>Dunne (UF) 90%</strong> (607),<strong> Shanks (Nat) 4%</strong> (24),<strong> Chauvel (Lab) 3%</strong> (20),<strong> Hughes (Green) 0%</strong> (3)</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: x-large;"><strong>2014</strong><span style="color: #741b47;"><strong> UF</strong> 273</span><span style="color: black;">......<strong>Dunne (UF) 86%</strong> (236),<strong> Hudson (Nat) 5%</strong> (13),<strong> Andersen (Lab) 5%</strong> (13),<strong> Woodley (Green) 1%</strong> (4)</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: x-large;"><strong>2011</strong><span style="color: #073763;"><strong> Nat</strong> 18,764</span><span style="color: black;">......<strong>Dunne (UF) 57%</strong> (10,709), <strong>Shanks (Nat) 33%</strong> (6,192),<strong> Chauvel (Lab) 5%</strong> (1,013),<strong> Hughes (Green) 2%</strong> (428)</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: x-large;"><strong>2014</strong><span style="color: #073763;"><strong> Nat</strong> 18,810</span>......<strong>Dunne (UF) 59%</strong> (11,015),<strong> Hudson (Nat) 29%</strong> (5,541),<strong> Andersen (Lab) 5%</strong> (952),<strong> Woodley (Green) 3%</strong> (530)</span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: #cc0000;"><strong><span style="color: black;">2011</span> Lab</strong> 10,036</span><span style="color: black;">......<strong>Dunne (UF) 13%</strong> (1,293),<strong> Shanks (Nat) 1%</strong> (131),<strong> Chauvel (Lab) 78%</strong> (7,817),<strong> Hughes (Green) 4%</strong> (443)</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><strong>2014</strong><span style="color: #cc0000;"><strong> Lab</strong> 8,771</span><span style="color: black;">......<strong>Dunne (UF) 9%</strong> 780),<strong> Hudson (Nat) 1%</strong> (72),<strong> Andersen (Lab) 82%</strong> (7,177),<strong> Woodley (Green) 6%</strong> (491)</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><strong>2011</strong><span style="color: #38761d;"><strong> Green</strong> 5,453</span><span style="color: black;">......<strong>Dunne (UF) 15%</strong> (824),<strong> Shanks (Nat) 5%</strong> (255),<strong> Chauvel (Lab) 57%</strong> (3,100),<strong> Hughes (Green) 21%</strong> (1,157)</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><strong>2014</strong><span style="color: #38761d;"><strong> Green</strong> 5,623</span><span style="color: black;">......<strong>Dunne (UF) 9%</strong> (516),<strong> Hudson (Nat) 2%</strong> (126),<strong> Andersen (Lab) 61%</strong> (3,421),<strong> Woodley (Green) 25%</strong> (1,419)</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"></span><br />
<br />swordfishhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11395947680707181966noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2650303453151499427.post-17727860056479778492014-09-20T07:39:00.000-07:002014-09-22T03:09:36.824-07:00The Specials<img alt="http://lghttp.23652.nexcesscdn.net/80AC18/images/media/catalog/product/cache/1/image/9df78eab33525d08d6e5fb8d27136e95/t/h/the_specials.jpeg" class="decoded overflowing" src="http://lghttp.23652.nexcesscdn.net/80AC18/images/media/catalog/product/cache/1/image/9df78eab33525d08d6e5fb8d27136e95/t/h/the_specials.jpeg" height="640" width="621" /> <br />
<br />
<br />
<strong>[Update: </strong>I posted this on Election Night. Since then, the Electoral Commission's estimated number of Special Votes has increased. And, on top of that, it's become clear that they were not including the estimated 38,500 Overseas Votes in their Specials Total. All of which means: Turnout is even higher than the 76.4% figure I originally calculated. It now stands at 77%. The general point, though, still stands - 2014 turnout is higher than 2011, lower than 2008. The greater number of Specials also means I'll need to update my estimates (below) of the raw number of votes that various Parties gained or lost.<strong>]</strong><br />
<br />
<br />
Based on the way the <i>Special Votes</i> fell in recent Elections, we might expect:<br />
<br />
- the Nats' <i>Final Result</i> to be about 0.5-0.7 points down, so perhaps around 47.5% or thereabouts<br />
<br />
- Labour to be up about 0.4 points, so around 25%<br />
<br />
- The Greens up 0.2-0.4 points, so 10.3% or 10.4%<br />
<br />
- NZF very slightly down 0.1 or 0.2 - to 8.7%<br />
<br />
- Others: slight lift in Maori Party vote, but ACT, UF and IMP should receive pretty much the same percentage as Election Night.<br />
<br />
That assumes, of course, that the <i>Specials</i> will fall the same way as they did in the last 3 elections.<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<b>National's <i>Election Night</i> Result</b><br />
<br />
<b>2011</b> 47.99%<br />
<b> </b><br />
<b>2014</b> 48.06%<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<b>National's <i>Final Vote</i> should comprise:</b><br />
<br />
- Around 36% of <i>Enrolled Voters</i><b> </b><br />
<br />
- Around 33% of <i>Eligible Voters</i><b> </b> <br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<b>TVNZ</b><br />
<br />
I think TVNZ's Election Night Special got <b>turnout</b> wrong. They suggested:<br />
- 2014: <b>67.7</b><br />
- 2011: <b>74</b><br />
- 2008: <b>79</b><br />
And argued that this was a terrible figure.<br />
<b> </b><br />
But I suspect they were forgetting about the Specials. By my calculations, Turnout is about <b>76.4%</b> - so half-way between 2008 and 2011.<b> </b><br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<b>A Few Quick Calculations:</b><br />
<br />
Suggest that, if my guesses on the <i>Final Vote</i> are correct, then:<br />
<b> </b><br />
- <b>National</b> would have gained around 65,000 more votes than in 2011<br />
<br />
- <b>Labour</b> would have lost around 25,000<br />
<br />
- <b>The Greens</b> would have lost around 3,000<br />
<br />
- <b>NZ First</b> would have gained around 58,000<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<b>While I'm no fan of Colin Craig's <i>Conservatives</i>:</b><br />
<br />
I have to say that, once again, we're dealing with an absurdity that the current<br />
Government should have resolved...<br />
<b> </b><br />
<b>Cons</b>: 86,616 votes (Election Night) (probably close to 95,000 in <i>Final Result</i>)<br />
= <b>No Seats</b><br />
<br />
<b>Maori Party: </b>27,074 = <b>Represented in Parliament</b><br />
<br />
<b>ACT: </b> 14,510 = <b>Represented in Parliament</b><br />
<br />
<b>UF</b>: 4,533 = <b>Represented in Parliament</b><br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1WhhSBgd3KI">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1WhhSBgd3KI</a><br />
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<br />swordfishhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11395947680707181966noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2650303453151499427.post-70189974222213039512014-09-18T17:05:00.000-07:002014-09-18T17:05:23.453-07:00The Giant Strolls Out to Gaze Upon His Handiwork<img alt="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/14/Crowd_in_Willis_Street,_Wellington,_awaiting_the_results_of_the_1931_general_election.jpg" class="decoded" src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/14/Crowd_in_Willis_Street,_Wellington,_awaiting_the_results_of_the_1931_general_election.jpg" /><br />
<br />
A little historical perspective on the eve of the Election for your mild amusement.....<br />
<br />
The <b>Evening Post's </b>immediate post-Election coverage in 1908:<br />
<br />
"All the long day that giant called "the people" worked his will upon the candidates, and in the evening he strolled out to gaze upon his handiwork, and he was surprised at some of the things which he had done by throwing white and green papers at men and institutions. In 1905 the giant gave the Seddonian Liberal Administration a push forward, and yesterday he pulled it down a few pegs. In 1905 he decided to close a few hotels, and yesterday he resolved to shut up some more. All these things the giant did in warm blood, according to the approvers, and in cold blood, according to the smitten, and then he went home to bed, more or less well pleased with his labours.<br />
<br />
In Wellington, the candidates - the survivors and the "slain" - congratulated one another last night about their gentlemanliness towards one another during the canvassing and speechifying campaign. Some other districts in the North and South Islands had their coats off, and many were wild-eyed and dishevelled, but a comparatively prunes-and-prism respectability characterised Wellington. This region had on a top hat, a frock coat, and spats, and kid gloves, by contrast with others, and maintained the hat, the coat, the spats, and the kid gloves in fairly decent condition right up to the last."<br />
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<br />
<br />
[I originally posted this on <i>Brian Edwards Media</i> in the run-up to the 2011 Election]<br />
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<br />swordfishhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11395947680707181966noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2650303453151499427.post-81170895628013564592014-09-18T16:38:00.000-07:002014-09-20T07:43:59.725-07:00All Over Bar the Shouting ?: My Predictions for the 2014 New Zealand General Election<img alt="John Key stands by his Education Minister" class="imageHotSpot" src="http://arntrnassets.mediaspanonline.com/radio/n00/1038597/John-Key-Prime-Minister-looking-tired-GETTY.jpg" id="imageUpResize" style="display: inline-block;" /><br />
<br />
So it's come to this, has it ?<br />
<br />
Having made extravagant promises in previous posts about completing a detailed Two-Parter analysing Poll support for each party in the 18-month run-up to the last two Elections and then, building on that analysis, providing an overview of polling trends over the last 18 months and applying the lessons from 2008 and 2011 in order to get to grips with where we are now, I suddenly find that the Election is upon us. All too late.<br />
<br />
So instead: here are my predictions and a brief analysis comparing 2014/2011/2008 monthly and weekly poll averages. <br />
<br />
First, in <b>Table 1</b>, I've calculated the monthly poll averages for each Party/Bloc for 2014. I've then calculated the difference between these 2014 Monthly averages and the Monthly averages for the same point out from the 2011 Election. (The 2011 Election was held in late November, so the April 2014 average is compared with the June 2011 average. The May 2014 average is compared with the July 2011 average and so on.....) That, in turn, allows me to calculate what percentage each Party/Bloc would have received had (1) an Election been held in that particular Month (of 2014) and (2) the disparity between the Monthly Poll Average and the actual Election result been the same as in 2011.<br />
<br />
You can see from Table 1 that, if we assume the polls this year are out by the same margin as they were in 2011, then in 2014 the Opposition Bloc has consistently been well ahead of the <b>(1)Right Bloc</b> (ie the Right <i>excluding</i> Colin Craig's Conservatives). And from April through to August, the Opposition Bloc has always either been leading the <b>(2)Right Bloc</b> (<i> </i>ie <i>including</i> the Cons) or has been level. In other words, if the polls this year diverge from the 2014 election result to precisely the same degree that they did in the run-up to the last Election, then the Opposition Bloc (assuming Peters decided to join the Left) has been dominant throughout this year. Despite all the hyperbolic MSM rhetoric suggesting <i>Labour is Dog Tucker</i> and it's <i>All over Bar the Shouting</i>, the Opposition Bloc has, in fact, been the more likely to win this year - <i>if</i> you take into account / control for the consistent over-stating of National and Right Bloc support in 2011.<br />
<br />
<b>Table 2</b> provides similar data for the weeks immediately preceding the Election. Once again, you can see that the Opposition Bloc has, over the last few weeks, remained well ahead of the Right Bloc (<i>excluding</i> the Conservatives) if we assume the same poll-election result disparities that occurred in 2011. <br />
<br />
<b>Tables 3 and 4 </b>do the same thing, but based on the assumption that the poll-election result disparities are the same as those at the 2008 Election. You can see that, under this scenario, the Opposition Bloc has been trailing the Right Bloc (whether <i>including</i> or <i>excluding</i> Colin Craig's Conservatives) for most of the year. <br />
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<br />
<a name='more'></a><br /><br />
The Left would want to hope, then, that the 2014 Polls are out by a similar margin to the disparity in 2011 rather than 2008.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"> Table 1: Percentages that Parties / Blocs should have expected to </span></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;">receive if an Election was held in that particular month of 2014 - and if </span></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"> <span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><i><span style="font-family: inherit;">Monthly </span></i></span><i><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Poll Average-Election Result </span></i>disparity was the same as in </span></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;">2011 </span></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"> Party/Bloc April May June July August </span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"> Labour 26 27 26 27 25 </span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"> Green 18 14 14 13 13 </span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"> </span><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #990000;">Left 46 43 43 43 41 </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #783f04;"> NZF 11 10 8 9 10 </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #783f04;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"> Opposition Bloc 56 52 50 51 50 </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #783f04;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"><span style="background-color: black;"> </span> </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #783f04;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"> National 40 43 44 43 43 </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #783f04;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"> (1)Right Bloc 40 44 45 44 44 </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #783f04;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"> (2)Right Bloc 44 49 50 48 50 </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #783f04;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: black;"> </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<br />
<br />
<span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #783f04;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"> Table 2: Percentages that Parties / Blocs should have expected to receive if an Election was held in that particular week - and if <i><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Weekly Poll </span></i></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #783f04;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><i><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Average-Election Result</span></i> disparity was the same as in 2011<span style="background-color: black;"></span> </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #783f04;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"> Party/Bloc 4-5 weeks out 3-4 w/o 2-3 w/o 1-2 w/o </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #783f04;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"> Labour 23 24 25 25 </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #783f04;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"> Green 15 13 12 12 </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #783f04;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"> Left 41 40 39 39 </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #783f04;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #783f04;"> NZF 9 10 9 10 </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #783f04;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #783f04;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"> Opposition Bloc 50 50 48 49 </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #783f04;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #783f04;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"><span style="background-color: black;"> </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #783f04;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #783f04;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"> National 42 42 45 43 </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #783f04;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #783f04;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"> (1)Right Bloc 45 44 46 45 </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #783f04;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #783f04;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"> (2)Right Bloc 51 50 52 51 </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #783f04;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #783f04;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: black;"> </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"> Table 3: Percentages that Parties / Blocs should have expected to receive if an Election was held in that particular month - and if <i><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Monthly Poll </span></i></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><i><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Average-Election Result</span></i> disparity was the same as in 2008 </span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: black;"> Party/Bloc April May June July August </span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"> Labour 31 33 29 25 25 </span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"> Green 13 11 12 13 13 </span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"> Left 48 46 44 41 41 </span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #783f04;"> NZF 6 5 4 5 6 </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #783f04;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"> Opposition Bloc 54 51 48 45 46 </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #783f04;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"><span style="background-color: black;"> </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #783f04;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"> National 39 40 45 47 46 </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #783f04;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"> (1)Right Bloc 43 45 49 51 49 </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #783f04;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"> (2)Right Bloc 45 47 51 52 52 </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #783f04;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: black;"> <span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;"><br /></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #783f04;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"> Table 4: Percentages that Parties / Blocs should have expected to receive if an Election was held in that particular week - and if <span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><i>Weekly Poll </i></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #783f04;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><i>Average-</i><i>Election Result</i></span> disparity was the same as in 2008 </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #783f04;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"> Party/Bloc 4-5 weeks out 3-4 w/o 2-3 w/o 1-2 w/o </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #783f04;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"> Labour 24 25 24 26 </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #783f04;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"> Green 13 11 12 11 </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #783f04;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"> Left 40 39 38 39 </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #783f04;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #783f04;"> NZF 7 6 7 7 </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #783f04;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #783f04;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"> <span style="background-color: #741b47;"> </span>Opposition Bloc 46 45 45 46 </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #783f04;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #783f04;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"><span style="background-color: black;"> </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #783f04;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #783f04;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"> National 44 46 47 47 </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #783f04;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #783f04;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"> (1)Right Bloc 49 50 50 48 </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #783f04;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #783f04;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"> (2)Right Bloc 52 53 53 52 </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #783f04;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #783f04;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: black;"> </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
I wanted to set out the 2014/2011/2008 differences for the parties for each month this year to show where we are relative to the previous two elections. But it looks like I'll only have time to do it for the week that's just finished (polls taken between 7 and 14 days before the respective elections).<br />
<br />
So below you can see that Labour's poll average last week was 24.3% and that was 2.3 points down on the same point (1-2 weeks out) in 2011 and 8.5 points down on the same point in 2008.<br />
<br />
Similarly, National's currently polling 3.9 points below where they were at the same point in 2011, but 2.2 points above the same point in 2008. Most importantly, the Opposition Bloc's up (on <i>both </i>previous elections) and the Right Bloc (<i>sans</i> the Cons) are well down on 2011 (- 5.7 points). Once again, given the significant over-stating of Right Bloc support in the run-up to the 2011 Election, if the poll disparities remain the same as at the last Election then you can basically reverse the <b>49.5% (Right </b><i>excluding </i>the Conservatives) and the <b>46.1% </b>of the <b>Opposition Bloc. </b>As Table 2 shows (1-2 w/o), it would be 49% Opposition Bloc / 45% Right Bloc (minus the Cons). Which is why I think it's crucial for the chances of a Left-NZF Coalition that Colin Craig's Conservatives fail to reach the threshold.<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #783f04;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #783f04;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: black;"> Poll Averages for 1-2 weeks out from 2014 Election compared to Poll </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #783f04;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #783f04;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: black;"> Averages at same point (1-2 weeks out) in 2008 and 2011 </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #783f04;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #783f04;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"> 2014 14-11 14-08 2011 2008 </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #783f04;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"> Labour 24.3 - 2.3 - 8.5 26.6 32.8 </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #783f04;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"> Green 13.3 + 0.6 + 4.3 12.7 9.0 </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #783f04;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"> Left 39.2 - 0.9 - 2.6 40.1 41.8 </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #783f04;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #783f04;"> NZF 6.9 + 3.4 + 3.1 3.5 3.8 </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #783f04;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #783f04;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"> Oppo Bloc 46.1 + 2.5 + 0.5 43.6 45.6 </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #783f04;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #783f04;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"><span style="background-color: black;"> </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #783f04;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #783f04;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"> National 47.7 - 3.9 + 2.2 51.6 45.5 </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #783f04;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #783f04;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"> (1)Right Bloc 49.5 - 5.7 - 55.2 - </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #783f04;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #783f04;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"> (2)Right Bloc 53.5 - 2.3 + 0.2 55.8 53.3 </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #783f04;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #783f04;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: black;"> </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span> <br />
<span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"> </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="color: black;">My <i>Final Result </i>predictions - in percentage terms.</span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="color: black;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="color: black;">Unfortunately, I think both ACT and UF will win their respective electorates - Epsom and Ohariu (sorry Rosie). Flavell will also take Waiariki, though <i>not</i> by the substantial margin that a recent poll predicted. (The polls always overstate both his support and the gap back to Annette Sykes). You may think I have the Greens a little low, but there are good reasons for that (which I might go into after the Election's done and dusted). Also pays to remember that the Election Night percentages are, of course, by no means the final result. You'd expect, for example, to see the Greens vote rise once those overseas votes flow in. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="color: black;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="color: black;">If the Conservatives cross that threshold then it's <i>all over rover</i> as far as I'm concerned. If they don't then it'll be a close-run thing as to whether Winnie holds the balance of power or we end up with the status-quo (the Nats being able to govern with their wee helpers). But, as my prediction suggests, I'm guessing that - in the event of Craig falling at the last hurdle - it's slightly more likely that Winnie will, indeed, be Kingmaker. </span></span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"> My Predictions for 2014 Election </span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"> <span style="color: black;"><b><span style="color: #f3f3f3;">Labour 25.2 </span></b> </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"> <span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><b>Green 12.1</b> </span> </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #674ea7;"> <span style="background-color: #351c75;"> <b><span style="color: #f3f3f3;">IMP 2.1 </span></b> </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #674ea7;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"> <span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><b>Left 39.4</b> </span> </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #674ea7;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #783f04;"> <b><span style="color: #f3f3f3;">NZF 8.1</span></b> </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #674ea7;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #783f04;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"> <b><span style="color: #f3f3f3;">Oppo Bloc 47.5</span></b> </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #674ea7;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #783f04;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"><span style="background-color: black;"> </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #674ea7;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #783f04;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"> <b><span style="color: #f3f3f3;">National 45.2 </span></b></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<b><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #674ea7;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #783f04;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #660000;"> Maori 0.8 </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></b><br />
<b><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #674ea7;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #783f04;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #660000;"><span style="background-color: #8e7cc3;"><span style="background-color: #3d85c6;"> ACT 0.6 </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></b><br />
<b><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #674ea7;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #783f04;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #660000;"><span style="background-color: #8e7cc3;"><span style="background-color: #3d85c6;"><span style="background-color: #a64d79;"> United Future 0.5 </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></b><br />
<b><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #674ea7;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #783f04;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #660000;"><span style="background-color: #8e7cc3;"><span style="background-color: #3d85c6;"><span style="background-color: #a64d79;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"> (1)Right 47.1 </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></b><br />
<b><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #674ea7;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #783f04;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #660000;"><span style="background-color: #8e7cc3;"><span style="background-color: #3d85c6;"><span style="background-color: #a64d79;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"> <span style="background-color: #674ea7;"> Cons 4.7 </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></b><br />
<span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #674ea7;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #783f04;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #660000;"><span style="background-color: #8e7cc3;"><span style="background-color: #3d85c6;"><span style="background-color: #a64d79;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><b><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: #674ea7;"><span style="background-color: #20124d;"> (2)Right 51.8 </span></span></span></span></b></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #674ea7;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #783f04;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #660000;"><span style="background-color: #8e7cc3;"><span style="background-color: #3d85c6;"><span style="background-color: #a64d79;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><b><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: #674ea7;"><span style="background-color: #20124d;"><span style="background-color: black;"> </span> </span></span></span></span></b></span></span></span><span style="background-color: #351c75;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><br /></span></span>swordfishhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11395947680707181966noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2650303453151499427.post-49496785513073123032014-09-14T12:28:00.000-07:002014-09-14T12:31:11.155-07:00Laundry Time: Dirty Politics Update<br />
<img alt="http://33.media.tumblr.com/110fba1fcdfc69a9612ede88adf07548/tumblr_n2d724bcpk1qjgm8jo1_500.jpg" class="decoded" src="http://33.media.tumblr.com/110fba1fcdfc69a9612ede88adf07548/tumblr_n2d724bcpk1qjgm8jo1_500.jpg" height="372" width="640" /><br />
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Back in Mid-August,<i> Colmar Brunton</i> carried out a <i>Snap</i> Poll to gauge the public's immediate reaction to Nicky Hager's revelations in <i>Dirty Politics. </i>Conducted over the two days immediately following Hager's eagerly-awaited book launch, this <i>Snap</i> Poll of 500 respondents would have been disappointing to anyone on the Left hoping for immediate fallout in the polls. More than two-thirds of National supporters refused to believe the allegations, a whopping 91% said it made little difference to how they viewed their Party, while just 2% of Nats (representing a mere 1% of the entire electorate) agreed that the scandal had negatively influenced their perception of the Party.<br />
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Still, it was obviously early days. As various commentators pointed out at the time, the poll was carried out before voters had really had much time to fully digest the details and come to terms with the arguably quite profound implications.The issue was always likely to be a bit of a slow-burner as the media momentum built over subsequent weeks (not unlike <i>Corngate</i> - one of Hager's other campaign interventions - in 2002). And there were at least <i>some </i>early signs from the <i>Snap </i>Poll of the potential for a somewhat broader disaffection among National's constituency - 10% of Nat voters, according to the poll, said they believed Hager's allegations of smear campaigns organised at the highest levels of the National Party, a further 23% weren't sure and - joining the 2% of Nats who viewed National more negatively - a further 3% were unsure precisely how they now felt about the Party. These small, overlapping minorities of National voters were the ones who might just conceivably budge over following weeks as the scandal reached a crescendo.<br />
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The finer detail of <i>Colmar Brunton's </i>snap poll also raised the intriguing possibility that the most important electoral consequence of the affair might not be so much a direct swing from Nat-to-Lab or Right-to-Left but rather in motivating a sizeable section of both Undecideds and erstwhile Labour-leaning Non-Voters to turn out on Election Day. A significant 19% of Labour supporters said they were more likely to get out and vote as a result of the scandal, while 23% of Undecideds believed Hager's allegations, with almost a quarter of this group feeling more negative about the National Party as a result. What's more,if the pattern of 2002 is anything to go by, then there is also potential for a swathe of erstwhile National supporters to stage a silent protest by simply failing to turn up at the polling booth on Election Day. A protest that may well go undetected in the pre-Election polls (It's interesting in this respect that National suffered a 4 point hit in the latest Early-Sept <i>One News Colmar Brunton</i> and that the Undecideds increased significantly).<br />
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<i>Colmar Brunton </i>have now released their (Late August) follow-up poll on the scandal, allowing us to explore the fallout over a somewhat longer period.<br />
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Question 1 of the Late August <i>Colmar Brunton</i> (in the tables below, I refer to this as the <i>Regular Poll</i>) is essentially the same as Question 2 of the Mid August <i>Snap</i> poll. Similarly, Q2 of the <i>Regular</i> poll is the same as Q3 of the <i>Snap</i> poll. <br />
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<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Colmar Brunton - August 2014 <i>Dirty Politics</i> Poll (Comparative) </span><br />
<span style="background-color: black; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="font-family: inherit;"> Mid-August</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> <i>Snap Poll</i> (509 respondents) </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: black; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> compared to </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: black; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: inherit; font-size: x-large;"> Late-<span style="font-family: inherit;">August <i><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Regular Poll</span></i> <span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">(1000 respondents)</span> </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #741b47; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #4c1130;"> Q1 (Regular Poll) / Q2 (Snap Poll): "The recently released book, <i>Dirty Politics</i>, suggests smear campaigns and leaks were organised at the highest levels of the National Party including the Prime Minister's </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #741b47; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #4c1130;"> Office. Do you believe these suggestions ?" </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: black;"> Entire Sample </span><i><span style="background-color: black;">Yes No Don't Know </span></i></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-large;"><i> </i><b><span style="color: #674ea7;">Snap Poll</span> 28 43 29 </b></span><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #0b5394;"><span style="color: #b45f06;">Regular Poll</span> </span><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"> </span><span style="color: #f3f3f3;">41 35 24 </span></span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #a64d79;">Diff</span> + 13 - 8 - 5 </span></b><br />
<span style="background-color: #073763; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: black;"><b> </b>National Supporters </span><i><span style="background-color: black;"> Yes No Don't Know</span><span style="background-color: black;"> </span></i></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #073763; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-large;"><i> </i><b><span style="color: #674ea7;">Snap </span><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="color: #674ea7;">Poll</span> 10 68 23 </span></b></span><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #073763; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #e69138;"> </span><span style="color: #b45f06;">Regular Poll</span><span style="color: #cc0000;"> </span><span style="color: #f3f3f3;">22 56 22 </span></span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #073763; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #a64d79;">Diff </span><span style="color: #f3f3f3;">+ 12 - 12 - 1 </span></span></b><br />
<span style="color: #f3f3f3; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><b> <span style="background-color: black;"> </span></b></span><span style="background-color: black;">High </span><i><span style="background-color: black;">Yes </span></i></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #660000; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"> </span><b><span style="background-color: #444444; color: #674ea7;">Snap Poll </span><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: #444444;">- Christchurch Residents 45 - Labour and Green Supporters 43</span><span style="background-color: #444444;"> </span></span></b></span><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #b45f06;"> Regular Poll</span> - NZ First Supporters 76 - Green Supporters 75 - Maori 60 - Labour Supporters 55 - 35-54 age-group 48 </span></b><br />
<span style="background-color: black; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-large;"><b> </b>High <i>No </i></span><br />
<b><span style="color: #f3f3f3; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"> <span style="color: #674ea7;">Snap Poll </span><span style="color: #f3f3f3;">- National Supporters 68 </span></span></span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: black; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"> <span style="color: #b45f06;">Regular Poll</span> - National Supporters 56 </span></span></b><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-large;"><b><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: black;"> </span> </span></b><span style="background-color: black;">Above Average <i>Increase</i> in <i>Yes</i> - between the two Polls </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-large;"> <b> - Undecided Voters 23 <i>(Snap)</i> to 41 <i>(Reg)</i> = + 18 points </b></span><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-large;"> - Labour and Green Supporters 43 <i>(Snap)</i> to 61 <i>(Reg) = + </i>18 points <i> </i></span></b><br />
<b><i><span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-large;"></span></i></b><br />
<span style="background-color: #4c1130; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: inherit; font-size: x-large;"> Q2 (Regular Poll) / Q3 (Snap Poll): "Have these allegations positively or negatively influenced your view of the National Party or have they not made much difference ?" </span><br />
<span style="background-color: black; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;"> Entire Sample<i> Positively Negatively Not Much Diff DK </i></span><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #674ea7;">Snap Poll </span><span style="color: #f3f3f3;">4 9 82 5 </span></span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #b45f06;">Regular Poll</span> 5 18 75 3 </span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #a64d79;">Diff </span><span style="color: #f3f3f3;">+ 1 + 9 - 7 - 2 </span></span></b><br />
<span style="background-color: black; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-large;"> National Voters <i>Positively Negatively Not Much Diff DK </i></span><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #073763; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #674ea7;">Snap Poll </span><span style="color: #f3f3f3;">5 2 91 </span><span style="color: #cc0000;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;">3</span> </span></span></b><br />
<span style="color: #cc0000;"><b><span style="background-color: #073763; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #b45f06;">Regular Poll</span> <span style="color: #f3f3f3;">No Data 6 87 No Data </span></span></b></span><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #073763; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #a64d79;">Diff </span><span style="color: #f3f3f3;">- + 4 - 4 - </span></span></b><br />
<span style="background-color: black; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-large;"> High <i><span style="color: #674ea7;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;">Negatively </span><b> </b></span></i></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #674ea7; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-large;"><b> Snap Poll <span style="color: #f3f3f3;">- Labour and Green Supporters 19</span> </b></span><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #444444; color: #674ea7; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #b45f06;">Regular Poll</span> <span style="color: #f3f3f3;">- Green Supporters 39 - NZF Supporters 30 </span></span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-large;"> - Labour Supporters 25 - 35-54 age-group 24 </span></b><br />
<span style="background-color: black; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-large;"> High <i>Not Much Diff </i></span><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #674ea7;">Snap Poll <span style="color: #f3f3f3;"> - National Supporters 91 </span> </span></span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #444444; color: #674ea7; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #b45f06;">Regular Poll</span> <span style="color: #f3f3f3;">- National Supporters 87 </span> </span></b><br />
<span style="background-color: black; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-large;"> Above Average <i>Increase</i> in<i> Negative</i> - between the two Polls </span><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-large;"> - Undecided Voters 5 <i>(Snap)</i> to 23 <i>(Reg) </i>= + 18 points </span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-large;"> - Labour and Green Voters 19 <i>(Snap) </i>to 29 <i>(Reg) </i>= + 10 </span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-large;"></span></b><br />
The Late August (Regular) <i>Colmar Brunton</i> poll certainly suggests the <i>Dirty Politics </i>scandal had gained momentum over those final two weeks of August as the National Party hierarchy increasingly lost control of the campaign agenda. The corollary: a steady corrosive effect on attitudes towards both John Key and the National Party.<br />
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General acceptance of the idea that smear campaigns were organised at the highest levels of the National Party, including the Prime Minister's Office, increased 13 points to 41% of all respondents (with a further 24% Unsure).<br />
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Naturally, belief in Hager's thesis was especially strong among Labour, Green and Opposition voters. But notice, too, the unusually large increase among that crucial segment of the electorate - those who are Undecided on the Party-Vote (up 18 points) - and the fact that acceptance of the allegations among National supporters had more than doubled (from 10 to 22% - with a further 22% of Nats Unsure).<br />
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<b>Click on <span style="color: #3d85c6;">Read more <span style="color: black;">for rest of analysis</span></span></b><br />
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<a name='more'></a><b><span style="color: #3d85c6;"><span style="color: black;"> </span></span></b><br /><br />
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Meanwhile, the proportion of voters who'd had their view of the Nats negatively influenced by the book also doubled over the final fortnight of August from 9 to 18%. Once again, the corrosive effect was especially strong among politically-Undecided voters, with those viewing National in a more negative light rising sharply (+ 18 points) over the space of two weeks.<br />
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Perhaps the only disappointment for the Left, here, is that the increase in negativity among National supporters (+ 4 points) was well below average. Still, the 6% of Nats who, by late August, were beginning to see their Party in a more negative light <i>does</i> represent almost 3% of all voters - and that's really all the Opposition Bloc need to budge in order to gain the Treasury benches.<br />
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We also shouldn't rule out the possibility that a number of previous National supporters had <i>already </i>swung away from the Party as a direct result of the <i>Dirty Politics</i> scandal and <i>before </i>the Late August Regular poll was taken. Their defection, of course, would be invisible in this poll because they wouldn't be included among National's supporters. <br />
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<b>Three other interesting facets stand out from the tables above:</b><br />
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<b>- </b>If an early belief in Hager's allegations can be taken as some sort of proxy for above-average antagonism toward the current National Government then there may be a portent here that Christchurch will experience a particularly heavy swing to the Left on Saturday. Of all the various demographics, Christchurch residents were the most likely to accept the truth of the <i>Dirty Politics</i> allegations within the <i>immediate </i>wake of its release. The large minority of Chch voters who said yes in the <i>Snap </i>poll (45%) even eclipsed the proportion of Labour and Green supporters who, similarly, replied in the affirmative (43%). Still difficult to be sure, though. As I replied to Puddleglum of <i>The Political Scientist</i> blog (here...http://thestandard.org.nz/puddlegum-on-christchurch/#comment-834219 ) <i>"The evidence on changing political sentiment in Christchurch over the last 12 months has been ambiguous, one might almost say contradictory."</i><br />
Maybe we're talking about <i>a tale of two cities</i>, the East of Chch swinging heavily Left, the West remaining wedded to the Right ?<br />
<i> </i><br />
<b>- </b>In the Regular poll, the broad middle-age group, 35-54 year-olds, expressed above average belief in Hager's revelations <i>and </i>were more likely than average to have developed a more negative view of the National Party as a result. Demographic breakdowns from the party support segment of various opinion polls over recent years suggest this age-group (particularly the older 45 + section) lean toward National and the Right. The potential is clearly there for some disaffection on Saturday.<br />
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- Perhaps the most intriguing facet, though (particularly given the possibility that Winston will hold the balance of power come election night), is the extremely high proportion of NZ First supporters expressing belief in the <i>Dirty Politics </i>revelations (76%), feeling more negative about the Nats (30%) and, as the tables below show, wanting Judith Collins to be stood down (81%) and disbelieving John Key over the SIS OIA release (76%). In each case, NZF voters comprised the demographic with either the highest or second-highest proportion refusing to accept the official Key/National Party line on Hager's allegations (they were only rivalled in these attitudes by Green supporters).<br />
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The <i>Colmar Brunton </i>Regular poll then asked a couple of questions on Collins and Key that were new.......<br />
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<span style="background-color: #4c1130; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: inherit; font-size: x-large;"> Q3 (Regular Poll only): "It was revealed last week that Justice Minister Judith Collins gave the name and contact details of a public sector employee to Whaleoil blogger Cameron Slater. Do you think Judith Collins should be stood down or resign as a Minister over this, or do you think she should stay a Minister ? If she resigns or is stood down, she would still be an MP." </span><br />
<span style="background-color: black; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Entire </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Sample <i>Stood Down/Resign Remain Minister DK </i></span></span><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-large;"> 61 26 13 </span></b><br />
<span style="background-color: black; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-large;"> National Voters <i>Stood Down/Resign Remain Minister DK </i></span><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #073763; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-large;"> 44 43 14 </span></b><br />
<span style="background-color: black; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-large;"> High <i>Stood Down/Resign </i></span><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-large;"> - Green Voters 89 - NZF Voters 81 </span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-large;"> - Maori 73 - Labour Voters 72 </span></b><br />
<span style="background-color: black; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-large;"> High <i>Remain Minister </i></span><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-large;"> - National Voters 43 </span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-large;"></span></b><br />
Judith Collins, of course, stepped down in the immediate wake of this Late August <i>Colmar Brunton</i>. Not entirely surprising (putting aside the various machinations within the National Party) - a large majority (61%) wanted her gone, with barely a quarter saying she should remain in Cabinet.<br />
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As you can see, even National voters (<i>slightly</i>) favoured her resignation over a slap on the wrist with a wet bus ticket.<br />
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Voter antagonism towards Collins had, of course, been building for quite some time. Back in May, as the <i>Oravida</i> scandal swirled around her, <i>Colmar Brunton</i> carried out a poll for Q+A that found New Zealanders evenly split (42/42) over whether she should remain a Minister. As you might expect, a majority (61%) of Labour and Green supporters wanted her gone. But so too did a healthy minority (20%) of National voters (with another 13% of Nats Unsure).<br />
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In the same May poll, 50% of respondents agreed that Collins' behaviour had been damaging to National (63% of Labour/Green supporters and a sizeable minority (38%) of National voters), 42% felt the Prime Minister had <i>not </i>handled the <i>Oravida</i> scandal well (including 16% of Nats), and almost a quarter of the entire sample agreed they would factor the scandal into their voting decision come Election Day (including 8% of National supporters). <br />
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<b><span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-large;"></span></b><br />
<span style="background-color: #4c1130; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: inherit; font-size: x-large;"> Q4 (Regular Poll only): "The book <i>Dirty Politics</i> suggests information concerning an SIS briefing to then Labour Leader Phil Goff was released speedily to blogger Cameron Slater under the Official Information Act. The information contradicted Mr Goff's claim that he had not been briefed by the SIS. Prime Minister John Key, who is also the minister responsible for the SIS, says he was never personally informed that the information was being released. He says only his Office was told. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #4c1130; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Do you believe Mr Key ?" </span><br />
<span style="background-color: black; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;"> Entire Sample <i>Yes No Don't Know </i></span><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-large;"> 41 44 14 </span></b><br />
<span style="background-color: black; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-large;"> High <i>Yes </i></span><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-large;"> - 55+ age-group 48 - National Voters 71 </span></b><br />
<span style="background-color: black; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-large;"> High <i>No </i> </span><span style="background-color: black; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-large;"> </span><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-large;"> - NZF Voters 76 - Green Voters 73 </span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-large;"> - Maori 66 - Labour Voters 65 </span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-large;"> - Low Income Households (under 30k) 56 </span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-large;"> - Undecided Voters 54 </span></b><br />
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<br />
<span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;">A plurality (44%) of respondents disbelieve Key on the SIS OIA release - and that includes a minority of National supporters (don't have the precise figure but it's likely to be around 15%). Again, there is above average rejection of Key's version of events among the all-important category of Undecided voters.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;"><b> </b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;">If we bring together the <i>Colmar Brunton</i> questions that directly concern John Key (Q1 and Q4 of the <i>Regular</i> poll) and the Mid-August <i>Fairfax-Ipsos</i> poll question on whether Key's reputation has been damaged by the <i>Dirty Politics </i>scandal - we find that, in each case, a plurality take a negative attitude towards Key. 41% agree smear campaigns were organised in the PM's Office (35% disagree / 24% Don't Know), 44% refuse to believe Key's version of the SIS OIA release (against 41% who believe him / 14% Unsure), and 47% agree that Key's reputation has taken a hit (vs 43% who disagree / 11% Don't know).</span><br />
<span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;">It should be added, though, that according to a <i>Herald-DigiPoll</i> taken around the same time, the majority of those who believed the revelations would damage Key (54%), thought it would only cause <i>"a little damage"</i> (43%), rather than <i>"a lot"</i> (11%).</span><br />
<span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;">How far will the <i>Dirty Politics</i> scandal shift votes - whether <i>within</i> the Right Bloc, <i>across </i>the Right-Left divide, or in and out of non-voting ? I'll be making my predictions in an up-coming post to be published a couple of days out from Election Day. </span><br />
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<span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;">Only a few more sleeps !!!</span><br />
<span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;"><br /></span>swordfishhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11395947680707181966noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2650303453151499427.post-43959923072159408192014-09-14T12:23:00.000-07:002014-09-14T12:23:04.451-07:00Can't See the Wood for the Trees<img src="http://www.nps.gov/muwo/images/8B4A7744-1DD8-B71C-0E6A4F8B3F1ABE26.jpg" height="160" width="640" /><br />
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<br />
Right, so let me get this straight.<br />
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The latest <i>Colmar Brunton </i>has National plunging 4 percentage points, with the Right Bloc (<i>excluding</i> Colin Craig's Conservatives) down by 2.<br />
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At the same time, while Labour is mildly down (1 point), the Left Bloc as a whole has risen 2 points and the broader Opposition Bloc (Left+Winston) are up by 1.<br />
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All of which means the chances of a Labour-led Government according this latest <i>Colmar Brunton </i>are significantly <i>higher</i> than they were a week ago when the previous poll was taken. The 4 point gap that existed between the Right and Opposition Blocs during the first week of September has now been slashed to just a single percentage point. Knife-edge stuff.<br />
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What's more, in the broader context of recent poll trends, this latest <i>Colmar Brunton</i> seems to herald the end of National's post-Collins-resignation bounce. As with the latest <i>Reid Research</i>, the Left are now hitting the early 40s (rather than late 30s), the Opposition Bloc's up in the late 40s (rather than early-mid 40s), National are down to their self-identified '<i>Danger Zone</i>' (46-47% rather than their early-mid 50s ratings in the immediate wake of Collins' demise) and the Right Bloc (<i>sans</i> the Conservatives) are down on 48% (rather than 50-55).<br />
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So, how did the MSM frame what is essentially good news for Labour and the Left and Opposition Blocs - news that makes the election of a Labour-led government in a week's time rather more likely ?<br />
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<i>"The latest One News Colmar Brunton poll brings <b>more bad news for Labour</b>" - </i>that was the RNZ newsreader on Thursday night, introducing the main items to be covered on Radio New Zealand's 10pm <i>Late Edition</i> news. A few minutes later, in the item itself, the newsreader (presumably reading a script written by an RNZ sub-editor) is forced to come across as some kind of partisan apologist, immediately explaining away National's conspicuous fall in support in the most grudging and dismissive terms - as if to say '<i>Nothing to see here, this is the very<b> least</b> important aspect of the poll and best we all just forget about it'. </i>Yes, yes, OK, National may have fallen 4 points in the latest <i>Colmar Brunton</i> <b>but</b> we can absolutely assure you that (i) they remain "<i>well ahead of Labour"</i> and (ii) Labour have fallen 1 point to 25% which is their worst <i>Colmar Brunton </i>performance in the last couple of years. Cue: more rhetoric about Labour's poll woes.<br />
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This, unfortunately, proved to be RNZ's exclusive framing of the <i>Colmar Brunton</i> results over the following two days: Introducing an item on <i>Checkpoint</i>, for instance, Jim Mora suggested that: <i>"a day after the 3 News Reid Research poll showed the National Party continued to retain strong public support"</i>,<i> </i>the latest <i>Colmar Brunton</i> suggests National has "<i>continued its strong showing"</i> (or, as another RNZ report had it, the poll points to <i>"on-going strong support for the National Party"</i>).<br />
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Forget, then, the little fact that both <i>Reid Research </i>and <i>Colmar Brunton </i> had the Nats down in their acknowledged <i>Danger Zone</i> of 46-47%. Forget the apparently minor piece of trivia that a Labour-Green-NZ First Coalition might possibly, just possibly, now be on the cusp of power (in a way that they weren't just a week ago). No, this poll, according to the State broadcaster, was apparently all about (i) National being well ahead of Labour and (ii) Labour sinking ever deeper into the mire - dropping that all-important one percentage point (in what, given the margin-of-error, could quite conceivably have been nothing more than statistical noise).<br />
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First-Past-the-Post: 1, MMP: 0<br />
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A day later, <i>Dominion Post </i>political editor Tracey Watkins argued that, while the Greens' rise to 14 points in this latest <i>Colmar Brunton</i> would normally be cause for jubilation, <i>"the hard reality facing the Greens is that as long as Labour remains in the doldrums, they may as well be on 5 per cent."</i> The Greens, she went on to suggest, <i>".....are marooned by their refusal to contemplate any deal supporting National in government."</i><br />
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And yet later, in the self-same article, Watkins - seemingly unaware of the inherent contradiction - agrees that <i>"...on last night's poll </i>(ie the Colmar Brunton), <i>NZ First would be kingmaker."</i> Riiiight. So, Watkins' line of reasoning is that NZ First will hold the balance of power according to this poll, National will be unable to govern with its current little helpers, everything will essentially come down to Winston's choice of Coalition partner, to Winston's basic proclivities - and yet, apparently, it's all over bar the shouting, the chances of a Labour-led government: beyond hopeless !!!<br />
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Don't get me wrong. I'm not saying that the odds are necessarily in Labour's favour or that Winston is more likely to choose a Left-leaning Coalition over a Right-leaning one. <br />
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What I<i> am</i> saying is: vague, meaningless, waffly FPP-style rhetoric about <i>National remaining</i> <i>well ahead of Labour</i> or sweeping assertions to the effect that this Election is done and dusted - just won't cut the mustard. Voters are entitled to know precisely how likely various Coalition scenarios are, based on the latest poll results. If polls start suggesting that the Right-Left or Right-Opposition support-gap is narrowing, so much so that a potential Labour-Green-NZ First Coalition has become at least a realistic possibility (even if not necessarily a <i>probability</i>) then that's exactly what well-paid Political Editors like Watkins should be telling readers.<br />
<br />swordfishhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11395947680707181966noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2650303453151499427.post-49149927111064281052014-09-08T08:03:00.000-07:002014-09-12T11:22:10.277-07:00How Fair Dinkum was my Valley ?: The latest 3 News Reid Research Foreign Ownership Poll in Comparative Perspective<img alt="http://fiordlandmonorail.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/dart-valley-mount-earnslaw-glenorchy-lake-wakatipu-from.jpg" class="shrinkToFit decoded" src="http://fiordlandmonorail.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/dart-valley-mount-earnslaw-glenorchy-lake-wakatipu-from.jpg" height="229" width="640" /><br />
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In reverse chronological order, you understand, Cobber.<br />
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<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> 3 News <i>Reid Research</i> Poll - Foreign Ownership </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> <i>Early August </i>2014 </span><br />
<span style="background-color: black; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Q1: Do you think there should be stricter controls placed on foreign ownership of New Zealand land and housing ? </span><br />
<span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #20124d;"> <span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Entire Sample: </span><span style="font-family: inherit;">Yes 77% No 20% Don't Know 3% </span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #0b5394; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">National Voters: </span><span style="font-family: inherit;">Yes 65% No 31% Don't Know 4% </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: black; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> Q2: Should the Government approve the sale of Lochinver Station to Shanghai Pengxin ? </span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: #20124d;"> <span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Entire Sample: </span><span style="font-family: inherit;">Yes 25% No 68% Don't Know 7% </span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #0b5394; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">National Voters: </span><span style="font-family: inherit;">Yes 38% No 53% Don't Know 9% </span></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: #741b47; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"></span> <br />
<span style="background-color: #741b47; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"></span> <br />
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<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"> <span style="color: #f3f3f3;"> Herald-DigiPoll - Farm Sales to Foreigners </span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"> <i>August</i> 2014 </span></span> </span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: black;"> E<span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Entire Sample </span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"> Ban Altogether "Nearly a Third" </span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"> Approve only when it brings a significant advantage over a </span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: #073763;">New Zealand Buyer (such as jobs) "a majority of voters" </span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"> No Restrictions 13% </span></span></span></span></span></span> </span><br />
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<span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"> Fairfax-Ipsos Poll <i>August </i>2014 </span></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"> Q1: Should the Government make it harder for foreign investors </span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"> to buy large amounts of productive farmland ?" </span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"> <span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Entire Sample: <span style="font-family: inherit;">Yes 74% No 24% Don't Know 2% </span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: black;"> Q2: Has too much productive farmland already been sold </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: black;"> into foreign ownership ?" </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"> <span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Entire Sample: <span style="font-family: inherit;">Yes 53% No 41% Don't Know 7% </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: black;"> Q3: Do you think New Zealand's economy benefits from </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: black;">more foreign investment ?" </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"> <span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Entire Sample: <span style="font-family: inherit;">Yes 64% No 31% Don't Know 5% </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"> </span></span></span></span> </span></span> </span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"> Colmar Brunton <i>Mid May </i>2014 </span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"> Immigration / Housing / Foreign Ownership </span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"> Q1: Do you think the Government should place more controls on </span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"> Immigration to reduce pressure on the housing market ? </span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #20124d;"> <span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Entire Sample: <span style="font-family: inherit;">Yes 57% No 33% Don't Know 11% </span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"> <span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">High <i>Yes</i>: <span style="font-family: inherit;">Household Annual Income Under 70k 64% </span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"> Maori 75% </span></span> </span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: #674ea7;"> <span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">High <i>No</i>: <span style="font-family: inherit;">Household Annual Income Over 70k 40% </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: #674ea7;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"> Non-New Zealand Europeans 50% </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: #674ea7;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: black;"> Q2: Do you think New Zealand should have a register </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: #674ea7;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: black;">of foreign ownership on property ? </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: #674ea7;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #20124d;"> <span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Entire Sample: <span style="font-family: inherit;">Yes 68% No 22% Don't Know 10% </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: #674ea7;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #20124d;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"> </span><span style="background-color: #351c75;"> No statistically significant sub-group differences </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: #674ea7;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #20124d;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"> Herald-DigiPoll <i>December </i>2013 </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: #674ea7;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #20124d;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"> </span><span style="background-color: black;"> Private Member's Bill from Labour MP and Former Leader Phil Goff to Limit Rural Land Sales to Foreigners </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: #674ea7;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #20124d;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"> <span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The Bill is Sound and should be supported 55% </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
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<strong>For Earlier Tables, Click on <span style="color: #0b5394;">Read More</span></strong><br />
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<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: #674ea7;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #20124d;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"> One News <i>Colmar Brunton</i> Poll <i>Late July </i>2013 </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: #674ea7;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #20124d;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"> Do you think measures should be put in place to prevent </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: #674ea7;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #20124d;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"> foreigners buying property in New Zealand ? </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: #674ea7;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #20124d;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"> Yes 62% No 32% Don't Know 6% </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: #674ea7;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #20124d;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"> High <i>No</i>: High Income Households (over 100k) 41% </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: #674ea7;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #20124d;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"> National Supporters 43% </span></span></span> </span></span></span></span></span> </span></span></span></span> </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"> One News <i>Colmar Brunton</i> Poll <i>May</i> 2013 </span></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: black;"> Do you think the Government is doing enough to keep housing </span></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: black;"> affordable in New Zealand ? </span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: #134f5c;"> Entire Sample: <span style="font-family: inherit;">Yes 30% No 62% Unsure 9% </span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: #45818e;"> High Yes: Age 55+ 35% National Voters 47% </span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: #0c343d;"> High No: Labour Voters 85% Green Voters 86% </span></span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"> <i>UMR </i>Research <i>March </i>2012 </span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: black;"> Q1: Are you aware of the proposal to sell 16 agricultural properties, </span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: black;"> the Crafar farms, in the Central North Island to an overseas company ? </span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"> Entire Sample: Yes 87% No 12% Unsure 1% </span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: black;"> Q2: The Chinese company Shanghai Pengxin wants to buy the Crafar </span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: black;"> farms, do you support or oppose selling the farms to this Chinese </span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: black;"> company ? </span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #20124d;"> Entire Sample: Support 21% Oppose 71% Unsure 8% </span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #20124d;"><span style="background-color: black;"> Q3: Do you Agree, or Disagree, with this statement: 'I don't care what </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #20124d;"><span style="background-color: black;"> the nationality of the company is, I don't want the farms to be sold to a </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #20124d;"><span style="background-color: black;"> foreign buyer' ? </span></span></span></span> </span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: #674ea7;"> Entire Sample: Agree 70% Disagree 26% Unsure 4% </span></span></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"> </span></span></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;"></span><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: #674ea7;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"> <i><span style="font-family: inherit;">UMR </span></i><span style="font-family: inherit;">Research <i>November </i>2011 </span> </span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: #674ea7;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"> Foreign ownership of farms and agricultural land </span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: #674ea7;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"> A Bad Thing 82% A Good Thing 10% Unsure 8% </span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: #674ea7;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: black;"> Main reasons given for not selling to foreign companies </span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: #674ea7;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #274e13;"> - Keep control of our primary resource </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: #674ea7;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #274e13;"> - So that Kiwis benefit from exports, not foreigners </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: #674ea7;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #274e13;"><span style="background-color: black;"> Opposition to companies from specified Countries being allowed to </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: #674ea7;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #274e13;"><span style="background-color: black;"> buy agricultural land </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: #674ea7;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #274e13;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #6aa84f;"> <span style="background-color: #6aa84f;"> </span></span></span></span></span><span style="background-color: #6aa84f;"> Chinese companies 81% US companies 76% </span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: #674ea7;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #6aa84f;"> British companies 67% Australian companies 54% </span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: #674ea7;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #6aa84f;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"> <i>Research New Zealand September </i>2010 </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: #674ea7;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #6aa84f;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"> <span style="background-color: black;"> </span></span></span><span style="background-color: black;">Do you believe overseas-owned businesses should be able to buy or </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: #674ea7;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #6aa84f;"><span style="background-color: black;"> invest in New Zealand farms or farmland ? </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: #674ea7;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #6aa84f;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"> Yes No Don't Know </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: #674ea7;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #6aa84f;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"> Entire Sample: 41 53 5 </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: #674ea7;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #6aa84f;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"> Male: 47 46 6 </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: #674ea7;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #6aa84f;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"> Female: 36 59 5 </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: #674ea7;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #6aa84f;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"> Age: 15-34: 53 44 2 </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: #674ea7;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #6aa84f;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"> 35-54: 40 53 6 </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: #674ea7;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #6aa84f;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"> 55+: 29 64 8 </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: #674ea7;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #6aa84f;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: #674ea7;"> Ethnicity: </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: #674ea7;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #6aa84f;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: #674ea7;"> NZ Euro/Pakeha: 41 54 5 </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: #674ea7;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #6aa84f;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: #674ea7;"> Maori/Pasifika: 39 57 4 </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: #674ea7;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #6aa84f;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: #674ea7;"> Other: 50 41 10 </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: #674ea7;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #6aa84f;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: #674ea7;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"> Location: Upper NI: 44 50 6 </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: #674ea7;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #6aa84f;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: #674ea7;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"> Lower/Central NI: 44 51 5 </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: #674ea7;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #6aa84f;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: #674ea7;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"> SI: 36 59 5 </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: #674ea7;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #6aa84f;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: #674ea7;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"> Income: Under 40k: 37 57 6 </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: #674ea7;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #6aa84f;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: #674ea7;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"> 40-70k: 37 60 4 </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: #674ea7;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #6aa84f;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: #674ea7;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"> Over 70k: 53 42 5 </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: #674ea7;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #6aa84f;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: #674ea7;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"> Farming: Involved: 40 54 6 </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: #674ea7;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #6aa84f;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: #674ea7;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"> Not Involved: 42 53 5 </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
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<br />
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<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: #674ea7;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #6aa84f;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: #674ea7;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"> 3 News <i>Reid Research</i> Poll <i>August </i>2010 </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: #674ea7;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #6aa84f;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: #674ea7;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"> Land Sales to Foreigners </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: #674ea7;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #6aa84f;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: #674ea7;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"> Tighten Rules: 76% </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: #674ea7;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #6aa84f;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: #674ea7;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"> Leave it as it is: 14% </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: #674ea7;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #6aa84f;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: #674ea7;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"> Relax Rules: 8% </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: #674ea7;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #6aa84f;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;"> </span> </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: #674ea7;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #6aa84f;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"> </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span>swordfishhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11395947680707181966noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2650303453151499427.post-75719956827525155672014-08-30T19:03:00.000-07:002014-08-31T17:24:40.724-07:00The Red, the Green and the Blue: ................ Left Bloc / Right Bloc Monthly Poll Averages <img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEivfo1XyA796F8Fj3eKNUVz5llZcrdQ1jrWzBzp-cgJz6XTAKsRpAcJVpQTLbrsD4RYvFjLrwUkqCnASCgaxw4zj4k4Yx2KAQMIALRMsbcFEKoSzQ9i6XtYdvh6ryu4ic1mj8d0LMa2sso/s640/vlcsnap-160827.png" height="360" width="640" /><br />
<a href="http://moviecitynews.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/ran20-hd.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://moviecitynews.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/ran20-hd.jpg" height="352" width="640" /></a><br />
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Following on from the previous post, here are the Monthly Poll Averages (since April) for both (1) The Four Largest Parties and (2) The Left and Right Blocs.<br />
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You can see from Table (1) that Labour's monthly average has been falling since May - down 4 points (no surprises there - it's been keenly discussed in the MSM). The other side of the coin: National are up 4 points since April, although you'll notice their average has fallen slightly in August. Over recent weeks, there's been quite a bit of excitable talk throughout the Blogosphere and MSM about the way both the Greens and NZ First are supposedly beginning to take off like a sky rocket (chatter that started <i>before</i> the release of Nicky Hager's <i>Dirty Politics</i>). And yet from the relatively calm perspective of monthly averages (rather than all the giddy excitement as each new poll is released), the Greens are really just holding steady while NZ First are only slightly up on June/July and slightly down on April (albeit a <i>crucial</i> one point rise, given the 5% threshold).<br />
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<span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><b><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"> (1) Monthly Poll Averages - Four Main Parties </span></span></b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #666666;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><b> <span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">Labour</span> <span style="color: #6aa84f;">Green</span> <span style="color: #3d85c6;"> National</span> <span style="color: #b45f06;">NZ First </span> </span></b></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #666666;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"></span><span style="background-color: #444444;"> April 30 13 46 6 </span></span></b></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #666666;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"> May 30 11 49 5 </span></span></b></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #666666;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"> June 28 12 51 4 </span></span></b></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #666666;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"> July 27 12 51 4 </span></span></b></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #666666;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"> August 26 12 50 5 </span></span></b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"></span></span><b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"></span> </span></b></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><b><span style="background-color: #444444;"></span></b><span style="background-color: #444444;"></span><b><span style="background-color: #444444;"></span></b><span style="background-color: #444444;"></span><b><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></b></span></span>
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><b><span style="background-color: #444444;"></span></b><span style="background-color: #444444;"></span><b><span style="background-color: #444444;"> </span></b></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;"><b><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"> (2) Monthly Poll Averages - Left Bloc / Right Bloc </span></span></span></b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #666666;"><b><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"> <span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">Lab</span><span style="color: #6aa84f;">Green </span> <span style="color: #990000;">Left <span style="color: #a64d79;">Oppo <span style="color: #3d85c6;">(1)Right </span></span></span><span style="color: #8e7cc3;"> (2)Right</span> </span></span></b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #666666;"><b><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"> April 43 45 51 47 49 </span></span></span></b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #666666;"><b><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"> May 41 42 47 51 53 </span></span></span></b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #666666;"><b><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"> June 40 42 46 52 54 </span></span></span></b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #666666;"><b><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"> July 39 41 45 53 54 </span></span></span></b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #666666;"><b><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"> August 38 41 45 51 54 </span></span> </span></b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span>
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In Table (2):<br />
<b> LabGreen</b> = Combined Labour+Green support<br />
<b> Left</b> = Left Bloc (Labour+Green+IMP) support<br />
<b> Oppo</b> = Opposition Bloc (Left+NZ First) support<br />
<b>(1)Right</b> = Right Bloc (<i>excluding</i> the Conservative Party) support<br />
<b>(2)Right</b> = Right Bloc (<i>including</i> the Conservative Party) support<br />
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Unfortunately, it hasn't been a great 5 months for the Left and broader Opposition Blocs. Aggregate Labour+Green support is down 5 points since April, with Left and Opposition Bloc support down 4 points and 6 points respectively. Having said that, both the Left and Opposition Blocs <i>have </i>been holding steady over the last two months. At the other end of the spectrum, the Right Bloc rose sharply between April and July (up 5 points or 6 points depending on whether or not you exclude Colin Craig's Conservatives). But once again, there's a qualifier here: the Right Bloc <i>(sans </i>the Conservatives) has fallen 2 points since July (will Key be regretting his <i>East Coast Bays</i> decision ? - or does he still have a Conservative Party option up his sleeve ?).<br />
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Needs to be borne in mind, of course, that both National and the Right have a tendency to nose-dive close to the Election, with their Election-Day Party Vote well down on their poll averages of preceding months. I'll be comparing where we are now with poll averages from the same point in 2008 and 2011 in an up-coming post.<br />
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<br />swordfishhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11395947680707181966noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2650303453151499427.post-26117022256331022742014-08-30T15:45:00.000-07:002014-09-12T11:05:49.626-07:00Left, Right / Left, Right / Left, Right....<img src="http://www.davidryanphotography.com/Travel/Vienna/i-fNG3S4T/2/L/Vienna094-L.jpg" height="454" width="682" /><br />
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Having set-out the poll-by-poll stats for the four largest Parties (<i>see</i> <b>Overview</b> post) and for the various minor parties (<i>see</i> <b>Santa's Little Helpers</b> post), it's probably well past time to do the same for Left Bloc/Right Bloc support (by far the most important dimension, of course, in an MMP environment).<br />
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If I find some spare time, I'll take the stats back to January, but, at the moment, the tables below cover just the last 5 months.<br />
<br />
<b>L+G</b> = Labour+Green support<br />
<b>Left</b> = Left Bloc (Lab+Green+IMP) support<br />
<b>Oppo</b> = Left Bloc+NZ First support<br />
<br />
<b>Nat</b> = National support<br />
<b>(1)Right</b> = Right Bloc (<i>excluding</i> Conservative Party) support<br />
<b>(2)Right</b> = Right Bloc (<i>including</i> Conservative Party) support<br />
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<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"> April <span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"> L</span><span style="background-color: black;">+</span><span style="background-color: #38761d;">G </span> <span style="background-color: #990000;"> Left </span> <span style="background-color: #741b47;"> Oppo </span> <span style="background-color: #0b5394;"> Nat </span> <span style="background-color: #073763;">(1)Right</span> <span style="background-color: #351c75;">(2)Right</span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="color: #45818e;"> Roy Morgan</span> 40 42 48 49 50 52 </span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"> <span style="color: #45818e;">Roy Morgan </span> 46 48 54 43 45 45 </span></span> </span></span></span><br />
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<br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"> May <span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"> L</span><span style="background-color: black;">+</span><span style="background-color: #38761d;">G</span> <span style="background-color: #990000;"> Left </span> <span style="background-color: #741b47;"> Oppo </span> <span style="background-color: #0b5394;"> Nat </span> <span style="background-color: #073763;">(1)Right</span> <span style="background-color: #351c75;">(2)Right</span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="color: #3d85c6;"> Fairfax-Ipsos </span> 42 43 46 48 51 52 </span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"> <span style="color: #45818e;">Roy Morgan </span> 44 46 52 46 47 48 </span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"> <span style="color: #a64d79;">Colmar-Brunton </span>41 42 47 51 53 54 </span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"> <span style="color: #38761d;">Reid Research </span> 40 41 46 50 51 54 </span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"> <span style="color: #45818e;">Roy Morgan </span> 38 39 44 53 55 56 </span></span></span></span><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"> </span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="background-color: black;"></span></span> <br />
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<span style="background-color: #444444; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"> June <span style="background-color: #cc0000; font-family: Arial;"> L<span style="background-color: black;">+</span><span style="background-color: #38761d;">G </span><span style="background-color: #444444;"> </span><span style="background-color: #990000;"> Left </span><span style="background-color: #444444;"> </span><span style="background-color: #741b47;"> Oppo </span><span style="background-color: #444444;"> </span><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"> Nat </span><span style="background-color: #444444;"> </span><span style="background-color: #073763;">(1)Right</span><span style="background-color: #444444;"> </span><span style="background-color: #351c75;">(2)Right</span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #cccccc; color: #f3f3f3; font-size: x-large;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: black;"></span><span style="color: #134f5c;"><span style="background-color: black; color: #f3f3f3;"> <span style="color: #45818e;">Roy Morgan </span> 40 43 47 50 51 53 </span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #cccccc; color: #cc0000; font-size: x-large;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: black;"> Herald-Digi </span><span style="background-color: black; color: #f3f3f3;"> 41 43 46 50 52 54 </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #cccccc; color: #0b5394; font-size: x-large;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: black;"> <span style="color: #3d85c6;">Fairfax-Ipsos</span> </span><span style="background-color: black; color: #f3f3f3;">35 37 40 57 58 59 </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #cccccc; color: #38761d; font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: black;"> <span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Reid Research</span></span><span style="background-color: black; color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> 40 42 45 50 52 54</span> </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #cccccc; color: #741b47; font-size: x-large;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: black;"> <span style="color: #a64d79;">Colmar-Brunton</span></span><span style="background-color: black; color: #f3f3f3;"> 41 43 47 50 52 53 </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #cccccc; color: #134f5c; font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: black;"> <span style="color: #45818e;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Roy Morgan</span> </span></span><span style="background-color: black; color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #45818e;"> </span>40 43 48 48 51 52</span> </span></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: #cccccc; color: #134f5c; font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: black; color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"> July <span style="background-color: #cc0000;"> </span><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;">L</span><span style="background-color: black;">+</span><span style="background-color: #38761d;">G </span> <span style="background-color: #990000;"> Left </span> <span style="background-color: #741b47;"> Oppo </span> <span style="background-color: #0b5394;"> Nat </span> <span style="background-color: #073763;">(1)Right</span> <span style="background-color: #351c75;">(2)Right</span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #cccccc; color: #134f5c; font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: black; color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: black;"> <span style="color: #45818e;">Roy Morgan <span style="color: #f3f3f3;">39 40 46 51 53 54 </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #cccccc; color: #134f5c; font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: black; color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="color: #45818e;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"> <span style="color: #3d85c6;">Fairfax-Ipsos</span> 37 39 41 55 56 57 </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #cccccc; color: #134f5c; font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: black; color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="color: #45818e;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: black;"></span><span style="background-color: black;"></span></span> <span style="background-color: black;"></span><span style="background-color: black;"></span></span></span> </span></span><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"></span><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"></span></span></span> <span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">Herald-Digi </span> 36 39 43 55 55 57 </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #cccccc; color: #134f5c; font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: black; color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> <span style="color: #38761d;">Reid Research</span> 39 41 46 49 51 54 </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #cccccc; color: #134f5c; font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: black; color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> <span style="color: #a64d79;"><span style="background-color: black;">Colmar-Brunton</span></span> 38 40 44 52 54 55 </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #cccccc; color: #134f5c; font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: black; color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> <span style="color: #45818e;">Roy Morgan </span> 42 45 50 46 49 50 </span></span></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: #cccccc; color: #134f5c; font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: black; color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"> <span style="font-family: inherit;">August <span style="background-color: #cc0000;"> <span style="background-color: #cc0000;"></span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;">L</span><span style="background-color: black;">+<span style="background-color: #38761d;">G <span style="background-color: #444444;"> <span style="background-color: #990000;"> Left <span style="background-color: #444444;"> <span style="background-color: #741b47;"> Oppo <span style="background-color: #444444;"> <span style="background-color: #0b5394;"> Nat <span style="background-color: #444444;"> <span style="background-color: #073763;"> (1)Right<span style="background-color: #444444;"> <span style="background-color: #351c75;">(2)Right</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #cccccc; color: #134f5c; font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: black; color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"></span><span style="background-color: #444444;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"></span><span style="background-color: #741b47;"></span><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"></span><span style="background-color: black; font-size: x-large;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="color: #3d85c6;">Fairfax-Ipsos</span> <span style="color: #f3f3f3;"> 34 36 39 55 56 60 </span></span></span> </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #cccccc; color: #134f5c; font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: black; color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> <span style="color: #38761d;">Reid Research</span> 42 44 49 48 49 51 </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #cccccc; color: #134f5c; font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: black; color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> <span style="color: #a64d79;">Colmar-Brunton</span>37 41 46 50 52 54 </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #cccccc; color: #134f5c; font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: black; color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> <span style="color: #45818e;">Roy Morgan</span> 39 42 48 48 50 51 </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #cccccc; color: #134f5c; font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: black; color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> <span style="color: #cc0000;">Herald-Digi </span> 39 41 45 50 52 54 </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #cccccc; color: #134f5c; font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: black; color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> <span style="color: #38761d;">Reid Research</span> 40 42 48 45 46 51 </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #cccccc; color: #134f5c; font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: black; color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> <span style="color: #cc0000;">Herald-Digi </span> 36 39 44 51 52 56 </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #cccccc; color: #134f5c; font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: black; color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> <span style="color: #3d85c6;">Fairfax-Ipsos</span> 38 40 44 51 52 55 </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: black; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #a64d79;">Colmar-Brunton </span><span style="color: #f3f3f3;">40 42 48 48 49 52 </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: black; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"> <span style="color: #45818e;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Roy Morgan<span style="color: #f3f3f3;"> 42 43 49 45 47 50 </span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: black; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="color: #45818e;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"> <span style="color: #6aa84f;">Reid Research <span style="color: #f3f3f3;">39 40 46 46 49 53</span></span> </span></span></span> </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #cccccc; color: #134f5c; font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: black; color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"></span><span style="background-color: #444444;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"></span><span style="background-color: #741b47;"></span><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"></span> <br />
<span style="background-color: #cccccc; color: #134f5c; font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: black; color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"></span><span style="background-color: #444444;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"></span><span style="background-color: #741b47;"></span><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"></span> <br />
<span style="background-color: #cccccc; color: #134f5c; font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: black; color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"></span><span style="background-color: #444444;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"></span><span style="background-color: #741b47;"></span><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"></span> <br />
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<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"> September <span style="background-color: #cc0000;"> <span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">L<span style="background-color: black;">+<span style="background-color: #38761d;">G <span style="background-color: #444444;"> <span style="background-color: #990000;"> Left <span style="background-color: #444444;"> <span style="background-color: #741b47;"> Oppo <span style="background-color: #444444;"> <span style="background-color: #3d85c6;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"> Nat <span style="background-color: #444444;"> <span style="background-color: #073763;"> (1)Right <span style="background-color: #444444;"> <span style="background-color: #351c75;"> (2)Right </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: #3d85c6;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: black;"> <span style="color: #3d85c6;">Fairfax-Ipsos <span style="color: #f3f3f3;">37 39 42 54 55 57 </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: #3d85c6;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="color: #3d85c6;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"> <span style="color: #cc0000;">Herald-Digi <span style="color: #f3f3f3;"> 35 39 45 50 51 55</span></span> </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: #3d85c6;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="color: #3d85c6;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"> <span style="color: #a64d79;">Colmar-Brunton <span style="color: #f3f3f3;">37 39 46 50 50 53 </span></span> </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: #3d85c6;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="color: #3d85c6;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"> <span style="color: #6aa84f;">Reid Research</span> 39 41 47 47 48 53 </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="background-color: #cc0000;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #38761d;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: #741b47;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: #3d85c6;"><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: #351c75;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="color: #3d85c6;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;"> <span style="color: #a64d79;">Colmar Brunton</span> 39 40 47 46 48 52 </span></span> </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: black; color: #f3f3f3; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: #cc0000;">Herald-Digi</span> 36 38 47 49 50 53 </span><br />
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<br />swordfishhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11395947680707181966noreply@blogger.com