Colmar Brunton Polls since 2014
Here ... http://subzpsubzp.blogspot.co.nz/2016/11/updated-cb.html
Monday, 28 November 2016
Sunday, 20 March 2016
Heading South ?
Are Right-Wing Bloggers and National Party Spin-Meisters correct when they argue: "Labour's poll ratings are heading south at an alarming rate" ?
Are Labour's numbers in free-fall ?
Find out here ... http://subzpsubzp.blogspot.co.nz/
Monday, 14 March 2016
Next National Leader
I see there's been a smattering of discussion at Public Address on (amongst other things) leadership succession in a post-Key National Party.
I provide the findings of leading Public Pollsters on the matter here ...
http://subzpsubzp.blogspot.co.nz/
Monday, 7 March 2016
What Good Flag Design Looks Like
Some of my Favourite Flag Designs (32 to be exact) in Alphabetical order.
A - L
Here http://subzpsubzp.blogspot.co.nz/
M - Z
Here http://s-zpolitics.blogspot.co.nz/
Rather than cluttering up this blog, I've stuck them safely away on two of my subsidiary blogs
(Having a bit of trouble with Swaziland, but isn't that always the way ?)
Friday, 4 March 2016
Old Glory: Latest UMR Research Flag Poll
UMR Research (Late Feb 2016)
Which Flag ?
New Current Unsure
Entire Sample 32 59 9
Labour Supporters 19 73 8
NZF Supporters 24 73 3
Green Supporters 28 60 12
National Supporters 45 45 10
Female 29 61 10
Male 36 56 8
Age 18-29 33 60 7
Age 30-44 29 64 7
Age 45-59 32 55 13
Age 60 + 35 57 8
Attitudes to Flag by Certainty to Vote
Almost Certain 32 62 6
Very Likely 33 59 8
Fairly/Not Likely 39 45 16
In the report accompanying their just-released Flag Poll (conducted over
the final week of February), UMR Research suggest their latest result:
"possibly represents a very modest gain for the change campaign as most previous polls have shown a 2:1 margin for retention of the current flag."
True. In fact, if anything, even a slightly greater margin in most recent public polls.
But, then again, it's best to compare apples with apples: in other words - you really want to compare this latest UMR Research Poll with the previous (early February) one from the same pollster. Do that and you find that, in fact, the New/Current preference ratios are precisely the same. Unlike the present poll, UMR excluded the Don't Knows from their presentation of the early Feb poll findings (1) - which recorded a 35/65 split in favour of retaining the current flag. Exclude the 9% Unsure in this latest poll and you get precisely the same 35/65 split. So, in the specific context of UMR polls on the topic, there really hasn't been any closing of the gap at all.
The UMR commentary also highlights what it implies is a critically important group of voters: those who, in principle, would be more than happy to change the flag but just don't like the alternative on offer (comprising almost 20% in the early February UMR and 16% in the early February Newshub Reid Research Polls).
UMR may well be right to argue that:
Neither "those voting for a new flag to remove the symbolic colonial yoke" nor those voting against change "because our soldiers died under the current flag" are likely to change their minds on the matter . But that the group voting for retention purely or largely because they don't much care for the Lockwood design just might. UMR suggests that this group tends to be younger and much more likely to support Labour and the Greens than the population as a whole.
All I can say is: I'm a middle-aged member of this 16-20% (2) and I've just cast my vote (albeit somewhat reluctantly) for the current flag - "Old Glory" as I like to call it. And I suspect most of my fellow Pragmatic Opponents of the Lockwood alternative will do the same. After all, not only are people relatively unlikely to suddenly alter their views on the quality of the Lockwood design (unless those views are weakly held), but also, as UMR itself has shown, younger Labour and Green voters are particularly responsive to the political motive: agreeing in overwhelming numbers that "New Zealanders should send John Key a message" in this referendum by "voting for the current flag."
Then again, it's also true that, for the first time, the Under 30s in this latest UMR are no longer the generation most opposed to change. They've been replaced by the young-middle aged 30-44 year olds.
Finally, as in the previous UMR, the current flag's margin over the Lockwood alternative increases slightly when you focus solely on those most likely to vote.
Footnotes
(1) Well, that was my assumption last night. But I've since discovered that in fact the early Feb UMR was conducted online and forced respondents into just the two choices: keep the flag or change it. The latest UMR is a phone poll which allowed an Unsure option. None of which alters the conclusion that, among those who have made up their mind, the 35/65 split is precisely the same in both polls.
(2) There's probably a spectrum of Pragmatic Opponents and I'm likely to be at the more conservative end. While I'd quite like to move to a fresh new flag and be rid of the colonial symbolism - the alternative design would really need to be a significant improvement on the current one. Some of us are, you know, just a little bit discriminating. I had little regard for any of the initial 40 designs, let alone the final five. Compromise is one thing, you're never likely to get precisely what you want, but that doesn't mean you just casually vote for any old dross. One thing I'll say for the current ensign: at least it exudes a certain sense of dignity and gravitas. Which is more than you can say for the something for everyone Lockwood design.
[As always, the tables are best viewed via laptop - otherwise they're apt to look just a tad messy]
Monday, 29 February 2016
Flag/TPPA Update: Latest Colmar Brunton
Flag
One News Colmar Brunton (Feb 2016)
Current or Alternative Flag ?
Alternative Current Neither DK
Entire Sample 26 63 4 7
Above Average Alternative
Nat Supporters 40
High Income 34
Age 55+ 32
Above Average Current
Maori 85
NZF Supporters 83
Lab Supporters 76
Age 18-34 74
Polls since Late 2014 - Entire Sample
Change Keep Neutral/DK
CB (Feb 2016) 26 63 11
RR (Feb 2016) 30 61 9
UMR (Feb 2016) 35 65 -
RR (Nov 2015) 29 65 6
RR (Sep 2015) 25 69 6
RNZ (Sep 2015) 28 61 11
CB (Sep 2015) 28 66 6
HD (Aug 2015) 23 53 24
HD (April 2015) 25 70 5
RNZ (Oct 2014) 19 43 37
CB = One News Colmar Brunton
RR = Newshub Reid Research
UMR = UMR Research
RNZ = Research New Zealand
HD = Herald DigiPoll
TPPA
QUESTION: "Some say the Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement gives too much power to overseas companies, because they can use the Investor State Disputes System to challenge the Government. Some argue this will restrict New Zealand's sovereignty, which is our ability to make our own laws and govern ourselves."
"Others say the agreement has very little impact on our sovereignty because other countries can't write our laws, and because the agreement goes both ways, and also protects New Zealand companies when investing in overseas markets."
"Which of these best describe your view on the TPPA ?"
Impact Sov Concerned = TPPA will have an impact on our sovereignty and I'm concerned about it
Impact Sov Not Concerned = TPPA will have an impact on our sovereignty but it's not a big concern
Not Impact = TPPA won't have much impact on our sovereignty
DK = Don't Know
One News Colmar Brunton (Feb 2016)
TPPA ?
Impact Sov Impact Sov Not Impact DK
Concerned Not Concerned
Entire Sample 42 22 24 12
Above Average Impact Sov Concerned
Maori (Ethnicity) 82
NZF Supporters 73
Green Supporters 67
Lab Supporters 62
Above Average Not Concerned Not Impact (combined)
Nat Supporters 70
High Income 61
Male 52
NZ European 51
Wednesday, 17 February 2016
How's the Vanity Project Going ?
Latest Newshub-Reid Research poll on Flag change.
Newshub-Reid Research Poll (Feb 2016)
Change the Flag ?
Yes No DK
Entire Sample 30 61 9
Nat Supporters 41 48 11
Lab Supporters 20 73 7
Green Supporters 30 60 10
NZF Supporters 34 66 0
Quality of Lockwood Design ?
Good Not Good DK
Entire Sample 35 60 5
I want to change the flag but am voting
for the current flag because I don't like
the alternative design = 16
Previous Polls in Reverse Chronological Order back to late-2014.
UMR Research (Feb 2016)
Which Flag ?
New Current
Entire Sample 35 65
NZF Supporters 17 83
Labour Supporters 30 70
Green Supporters 32 68
National Supporters 50 50
Male 35 65
Female 35 65
Age 18-29 28 72
Age 30-44 38 62
Age 45-59 37 63
Age 60 + 37 63
Attitudes to Flag by Certainty to Vote
Almost Certain 34 66
Very Likely 33 67
Fairly/Not likely 48 52
Won't Vote 22 78
The Flag Referendum has been a distraction
and a waste of money. New Zealanders should send
John Key a message by voting for the Current Flag
Disagree Agree Neither
Entire Sample 23 66 11
NZF Supporters 3 89 8
Lab Supporters 15 75 9
Green Supporters 18 72 10
Nat Supporters 40 47 13
Male 28 61 11
Female 19 70 11
Age 18-29 15 71 13
Age 30-44 23 63 14
Age 45-59 27 66 7
Age 60 + 26 65 10
3 News Reid Research Poll (Nov 2015)
Change the Flag ?
Yes No DK
Entire Sample 29 65 6
3 News Reid Research (Sep 2015)
Change the Flag ?
Yes No DK
Entire Sample 25 69 6
Research New Zealand (Sep 2015)
Adopt New Flag ?
Agree Disagree DK
Entire Sample 28 61 11
Male 29 60 11
Female 28 62 11
Age 18-54 26 62 12
Age 55 + 34 58 8
One News Colmar Brunton (Sep 2015)
Change to a New Design ?
Change Keep DK
Entire Sample 28 66 6
Above Average Change
Green Supporters 41
Nat Supporters 37
High Income 37
Auckland 35
Above Average Keep
NZF Supporters 93
Low Income 85
Maori 83
Lab Supporters 78
Herald DigiPoll (Aug 2015)
Change Flag ?
Support Oppose Depends
Entire Sample 23 53 24
Male - 44 -
Female - 61 -
Herald DigiPoll (April 2015)
Time for a New Flag ?
Yes No Unsure
Entire Sample 25 70 5
Research New Zealand (Oct 2014)
Adopt New Flag ?
Agree Disagree Neutral
Entire Sample 19 43 37
Male 19 40 40
Female 19 46 34
Age 18-34 16 47 35
Age 35-54 18 40 41
Age 55 + 23 42 33
Income <40k 18 44 35
Income 40-80k 20 45 36
Income 80k> 21 38 41
Upper NI 19 40 40
Lower NI 19 44 36
SI 20 44 35
Euro 18 44 35
Maori 20 45 36
Pasifika 21 38 41
Other 16 51 30
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