Fairfax-Nielsen poll - Next National Leader / Political Fallout from Key Resignation / Early Election

Fairfax-Nielsen Poll

Weighted On-line Poll conducted in the immediate wake of  Key's shock resignation on Monday (carried out "on the evening of December 5, the day John Key announced his resignation, and on the morning of December 6").


Here
http://subzpsubzp.blogspot.co.nz/2016/12/fairfax-nielsen-poll-next-national.html

Updated CB

Colmar Brunton Polls since 2014

Here ... http://subzpsubzp.blogspot.co.nz/2016/11/updated-cb.html

Heading South ?

Are Right-Wing Bloggers and National Party Spin-Meisters correct when they argue: "Labour's poll ratings are heading south at an alarming rate" ?

Are Labour's numbers in free-fall ?

Find out here ... http://subzpsubzp.blogspot.co.nz/

Next National Leader

I see there's been a smattering of discussion at Public Address on (amongst other things) leadership succession in a post-Key National Party.

I provide the findings of leading Public Pollsters on the matter here ...
http://subzpsubzp.blogspot.co.nz/

What Good Flag Design Looks Like

Some of my Favourite Flag Designs (32 to be exact) in Alphabetical order.

A - L
Here http://subzpsubzp.blogspot.co.nz/

M - Z
Here http://s-zpolitics.blogspot.co.nz/


Rather than cluttering up this blog, I've stuck them safely away on two of my subsidiary blogs

(Having a bit of trouble with Swaziland, but isn't that always the way ?)

Old Glory: Latest UMR Research Flag Poll

                      UMR Research   (Late Feb 2016)            
                                      Which Flag ?                              
                                    New        Current       Unsure      
   Entire Sample             32               59                9           
                                                                                          
   Labour Supporters      19               73                 8          
   NZF Supporters          24               73                 3          
   Green Supporters        28               60                12         
   National Supporters    45               45                10         
                                                                                          
   Female                         29               61                10        
   Male                             36               56                 8         
                                                                                          
   Age 18-29                    33               60                  7        
   Age 30-44                    29               64                  7        
   Age 45-59                    32               55                 13       
   Age 60 +                      35               57                   8       
                                                                                          
   Attitudes to Flag by Certainty to Vote                           
   Almost Certain             32               62                   6       
   Very Likely                  33               59                   8       
   Fairly/Not Likely         39               45                  16       
                                                                                            


In the report accompanying their just-released Flag Poll (conducted over
the final week of February), UMR Research suggest their latest result:
"possibly represents a very modest gain for the change campaign as most previous polls have shown a 2:1 margin for retention of the current flag."

True. In fact, if anything, even a slightly greater margin in most recent public polls.

But, then again, it's best to compare apples with apples: in other words - you really want to compare this latest UMR Research Poll with the previous (early February) one from the same pollster. Do that and you find that, in fact, the New/Current preference ratios are precisely the same. Unlike the present poll, UMR excluded the Don't Knows from their presentation of the early Feb poll findings (1) - which recorded a 35/65 split in favour of retaining the current flag. Exclude the 9% Unsure in this latest poll and you get precisely the same 35/65 split. So, in the specific context of UMR polls on the topic, there really hasn't been any closing of the gap at all.

The UMR commentary also highlights what it implies is a critically important group of voters: those who, in principle, would be more than happy to change the flag but just don't like the alternative on offer (comprising almost 20% in the early February UMR and 16% in the early February Newshub Reid Research Polls).

UMR may well be right to argue that:
Neither "those voting for a new flag to remove the symbolic colonial yoke" nor those voting against change "because our soldiers died under the current flag" are likely to change their minds on the matter . But that the group voting for retention purely or largely because they don't much care for the Lockwood design just might. UMR suggests that this group tends to be younger and much more likely to support Labour and the Greens than the population as a whole.

All I can say is: I'm a middle-aged member of this 16-20% (2) and I've just cast my vote (albeit somewhat reluctantly) for the current flag - "Old Glory" as I like to call it. And I suspect most of my fellow Pragmatic Opponents of the Lockwood alternative will do the same. After all, not only are people relatively unlikely to suddenly alter their views on the quality of the Lockwood design (unless those views are weakly held), but also, as UMR itself has shown, younger Labour and Green voters are particularly responsive to the political motive: agreeing in overwhelming numbers that "New Zealanders should send John Key a message" in this referendum by "voting for the current flag."

Then again, it's also true that, for the first time, the Under 30s in this latest UMR are no longer the generation most opposed to change. They've been replaced by the young-middle aged 30-44 year olds.

Finally, as in the previous UMR, the current flag's margin over the Lockwood alternative increases slightly when you focus solely on those most likely to vote.


Footnotes

(1) Well, that was my assumption last night. But I've since discovered that in fact the early Feb UMR was conducted online and forced respondents into just the two choices: keep the flag or change it. The latest UMR is a phone poll which allowed an Unsure option. None of which alters the conclusion that, among those who have made up their mind, the 35/65 split is precisely the same in both polls.

(2) There's probably a spectrum of Pragmatic Opponents and I'm likely to be at the more conservative end. While I'd quite like to move to a fresh new flag and be rid of the colonial symbolism - the alternative design would really need to be a significant improvement on the current one. Some of us are, you know, just a little bit discriminating. I had little regard for any of the initial 40 designs, let alone the final five. Compromise is one thing, you're never likely to get precisely what you want, but that doesn't mean you just casually vote for any old dross. One thing I'll say for the current ensign: at least it exudes a certain sense of dignity and gravitas. Which is more than you can say for the something for everyone Lockwood design.

[As always, the tables are best viewed via laptop - otherwise they're apt to look just a tad messy]

Flag/TPPA Update: Latest Colmar Brunton

Flag


      One News Colmar Brunton   (Feb 2016)                     
                  Current or Alternative Flag ?                               
                           Alternative     Current      Neither     DK    
  Entire Sample         26                 63               4            7     
                                                                                                
                    Above Average   Alternative                             
   Nat Supporters       40                                                         
   High Income          34                                                          
   Age 55+                 32                                                          
                     Above Average   Current                                 
   Maori                                           85                                    
   NZF Supporters                           83                                   
   Lab Supporters                            76                                   
   Age 18-34                                    74                                   




         Polls since Late 2014   - Entire Sample                
                                    Change       Keep     Neutral/DK    
                                                                                          
   CB (Feb 2016)             26              63             11           
   RR (Feb 2016)             30              61              9            
   UMR (Feb 2016)         35              65               -            
   RR  (Nov 2015)           29              65              6            
   RR (Sep 2015)             25              69              6            
   RNZ (Sep 2015)          28              61             11           
   CB (Sep 2015)             28              66              6            
   HD (Aug 2015)            23              53             24           
   HD (April 2015)          25              70              5             
   RNZ (Oct 2014)          19              43              37           
                                                                                           

CB = One News Colmar Brunton
RR = Newshub Reid Research
UMR = UMR Research
RNZ = Research New Zealand
HD = Herald DigiPoll









TPPA

QUESTION: "Some say the Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement gives too much power to overseas companies, because they can use the Investor State Disputes System to challenge the Government. Some argue this will restrict New Zealand's sovereignty, which is our ability to make our own laws and govern ourselves."

"Others say the agreement has very little impact on our sovereignty because other countries can't write our laws, and because the agreement goes both ways, and also protects New Zealand companies when investing in overseas markets."

"Which of these best describe your view on the TPPA ?"


 Impact Sov Concerned   = TPPA will have an impact on our sovereignty and I'm concerned about it
 Impact Sov Not Concerned   = TPPA will have an impact on our sovereignty but it's not a big concern
 Not Impact   = TPPA won't have much impact on our sovereignty

 DK   = Don't Know



        One News Colmar Brunton     (Feb 2016)                       
                                    TPPA ?                                                     
                        Impact Sov      Impact Sov    Not Impact    DK   
                        Concerned    Not Concerned                                 
   Entire Sample       42                   22                  24            12     
                                                                                                      
  Above Average  Impact Sov Concerned                                     
  Maori (Ethnicity)     82                                                                
  NZF Supporters       73                                                                 
  Green Supporters     67                                                                 
  Lab Supporters         62                                                                
                                                                                                       
  Above Average  Not Concerned  Not Impact  (combined)         
  Nat Supporters                                         70                                
  High Income                                            61                                
  Male                                                         52                                
  NZ European                                            51                                

How's the Vanity Project Going ?

Latest Newshub-Reid Research  poll on Flag change.

       Newshub-Reid Research Poll      (Feb 2016)        
                       Change the Flag ?                     
                             Yes       No       DK       
    Entire Sample               30           61            9         
                                                                
      Nat Supporters             41           48           11            
      Lab Supporters             20           73            7            
      Green Supporters         30            60           10           
      NZF Supporters           34            66            0            
                                                                                          
                 Quality of Lockwood Design ?         
                                       Good   Not Good   DK     
      Entire Sample               35              60              5        
                                                                                         
     I want to change the flag but am voting   
   for the current flag because I don't like     
         the alternative design     = 16                   
                                                                                         





Previous Polls in Reverse Chronological Order back to late-2014.

             UMR Research   (Feb 2016)                         
                       Which Flag ?                     
                                 New      Current      
    Entire Sample                      35                 65              
                                                                                        
    NZF Supporters                    17                 83            
    Labour Supporters                30                 70            
    Green Supporters                  32                 68            
    National Supporters              50                 50            
                                                                                       
    Male                                     35                 65             
    Female                                 35                 65              
                                                                                       
    Age 18-29                            28                 72             
    Age 30-44                            38                 62              
    Age 45-59                            37                 63              
    Age 60 +                              37                 63             
                                                                                       
    Attitudes to Flag by Certainty to Vote                      
    Almost Certain                    34                 66             
    Very Likely                         33                 67             
    Fairly/Not likely                 48                 52             
    Won't Vote                          22                78              
                                                                                      
       The Flag Referendum has been a distraction        
  and a waste of money. New Zealanders should send  
  John Key a message by voting  for the Current Flag   
                      Disagree   Agree    Neither  
    Entire Sample          23               66              11          
                                                                                        
    NZF Supporters        3                89               8           
    Lab Supporters         15              75               9            
    Green Supporters     18              72              10           
    Nat Supporters         40              47              13          
                                                                                        
     Male                        28              61              11          
    Female                     19              70               11           
                                                                                        
    Age 18-29                15              71               13          
    Age 30-44                23              63               14          
    Age 45-59                27              66                7           
    Age 60 +                  26              65               10          




         3 News Reid Research Poll    (Nov 2015)            
                          Change the Flag ?                   
                           Yes       No       DK          
     Entire Sample            29            65            6               




          3 News Reid Research     (Sep 2015)             
                   Change the Flag ?                   
                           Yes        No       DK         
     Entire Sample           25             69             6               




           Research New Zealand    (Sep 2015)                 
                            Adopt New Flag ?                  
                           Agree   Disagree   DK     
      Entire Sample             28               61            11         
                                                                                         
      Male                           29               60              11        
      Female                       28               62               11        
                                                                                         
      Age 18-54                  26               62               12        
      Age 55 +                    34               58                8          





         One News Colmar Brunton    (Sep 2015)           
                   Change to a New Design ?           
                        Change     Keep     DK       
      Entire Sample          28                66            6           
                                                                                        
                     Above Average   Change                       
      Green Supporters      41                                             
      Nat Supporters          37                                              
      High Income             37                                              
      Auckland                  35                                              
                      Above Average  Keep                             
      NZF Supporters                             93                         
      Low Income                                   85                        
      Maori                                              83                        
      Lab Supporters                               78                       



          Herald DigiPoll     (Aug 2015)                     
                   Change Flag ?                        
                   Support   Oppose   Depends     
    Entire Sample       23               53                24              
                                                                                          
      Male                     -                44                  -               
      Female                  -                61                  -              




           Herald DigiPoll     (April 2015)                  
               Time for a New Flag ?                
                          Yes     No     Unsure        
     Entire Sample          25          70             5                 




          Research New Zealand    (Oct 2014)               
                       Adopt New Flag ?                    
                    Agree   Disagree   Neutral     
      Entire Sample        19             43              37            
      Male                      19              40             40           
      Female                  19              46             34           
                                                                                      
      Age 18-34             16              47             35           
      Age 35-54             18              40             41            
      Age 55 +               23              42             33           
                                                                                      
      Income <40k        18               44             35          
      Income 40-80k     20               45             36           
      Income 80k>        21               38             41           
                                                                                     
      Upper NI              19               40             40          
      Lower NI             19                44             36          
           SI                    20                44             35           
                                                                                     
      Euro                     18                 44             35        
      Maori                   20                 45             36        
      Pasifika                21                 38             41        
      Other                    16                 51             30