[Update: These are the demographics for the February, May and June 2014 Fairfax-Ipsos Polls. The May breakdowns only became available once the June Poll was released. The post was written well before the June Poll came out]
A few days ago on The Standard's 'Polity: Meanwhile in Bomber-land' (3 June), regular commenter Blue Leopard indicated he was interested to see demographic breakdowns of Party Support from recent Opinion Polls.
Here's one example. These are breakdowns from the second-to-last Fairfax Ipsos Poll (February 2014). Unfortunately, Fairfax haven't made available similar data for their latest (May 2014) Poll.
When I have time, I'll post the demographic bases for (1) some earlier Fairfax Ipsos polls from 2013 and from (2) a number of Herald-Digi polls also from 2013. There's clearly a kind of hit-and-miss quality to the way a number of media organisations present their poll data. Sometimes elaborate and very impressive graphics with detailed information, othertimes next to nothing, bordering on zero, zilch, not a sausage !
But there's another interesting dimension to the data (below) - a facet that ties-in with the phenomena I intend to analyse in my next post (prompted by some recent questions from The Standard regular Colonial Viper). As I explained briefly on Open Mike (15/05/2014), the "Mood for a Change of Government" question (asked in recent Fairfax Ipsos polls) is really the elephant-in-the-room as far as Tracy Watkins and Vern Small's analyses are concerned. Last year, this measurement suggested those wanting to see a change of government (50%) outnumbered respondents who were happy with the present government (43%) by 7 points. More recently, the mood has become relatively evenly split (February 2014: Change Govt 47%, Keep Govt 48%), (May 2014: Change Govt 46%, Keep Govt 48%).
And yet, at one and the same time, National and the Right Bloc almost always lead the Left by a sizeable margin in Fairfax's Party Vote results - poll after poll. In the poll where desire to change the government was 7 points ahead, for instance, the Right actually led the Left by 52% to 45% in party support and even if you were to add NZ First to the Left Bloc - that's still a 52/47% split. Fast forward to February this year and, while respondents are evenly divided on a change of government, the Right is 11 points and 9 points ahead of the Left in February and May respectively.
How can this be ? The answer is: those who are either Undecided on the Party Vote or indicate they're unlikely to vote at the up-coming Election are excluded from the Poll's Party Support results, but not - and this is crucial - from the "Change of Government" results. Do the math and you'll find that in every one of Fairfax's recent polls - the number of Undecideds who favour a Left-leaning Government massively outnumbers those who support the status quo. All of which suggests that an important chunk of Left support is systematically excluded from the poll results, which, in turn, suggests voters are being misinformed about the true state of public opinion. In the Dominion Post report on the February Poll, for instance, Vern Small tells readers: "The Poll suggests Labour has a lot of ground to make up on National in convincing voters it has a better economic plan", while Tracy Watkins (in an adjoining article) echoes this with: "Labour clearly still has its work cut out winning the argument that a change of government won't put that (the Country moving in the right direction) at risk ". Immediately after reading this analysis, my eyes moved to the Fairfax Poll graphics straight above these articles and what did I see ? - Time for a change of Government ? and then a graphic showing: Yes 47.3% No 48.0%. And I thought to myself: "So not really all that much ground to make up after all."
And this crucial exclusion of Left-leaning voters is by no means confined to the Fairfax Ipsos Poll results. Appears to happen in a number of Polls (as I'll show in the up-coming Post). And that, in turn, probably partly explains why the National and broader Right vote has been so over-stated in polls over recent years - relative to the share of support they actually receive at the subsequent Election (although I don't think it's the only reason).
Anyway, here are the breakdowns from the February Fairfax Ipsos. The stronger support for the Left among Women and Younger Voters is a pretty consistent trend over at least the last decade or so.
And to see what a difference inclusion of all respondents (ie including the Undecided and likely non-voters) in the 'Change of Government' question makes (compared to the 'Party Support' figures where they're excluded) - compare the Strongest-to-Weakest stats (ie Lab+Green Lead over Nat) at the bottom of the Party Support table with the Strongest-to-Weakest stats following the Change of Government table (ie Yes Lead over No). In terms of Party Support, the Labour + Greens figure outstrips National in only 3 demographics, whereas Yes - Change Government leads No, Keep Present Government in as many as 6 demographics...
Fairfax-Ipsos Poll
(1) February 2014
(A) Party Support
Male Nat 54 Lab 25 Green 9 (Lab+Green 34) Base 404
Female Nat 46 Lab 38 Green 11 (Lab+Green 49) Base 441
18-29 Nat 41 Lab 35 Green 13 (Lab+Green 48) Base 136
30-44 Nat 46 Lab 38 Green 11 (Lab+Green 49) Base 210
45-64 Nat 53 Lab 28 Green 10 (Lab+Green 38) Base 318
65 + Nat 56 Lab 28 Green 7 (Lab+Green 35) Base 181
Auckland Nat 50 Lab 35 Green 7 (Lab+Green 42) Base 275
Upper NI Nat 50 Lab 28 Green 9 (Lab+Green 37) Base 169
Wellington Nat 47 Lab 31 Green 15 (Lab+Green 46) Base 101
Lower NI Nat 51 Lab 37 Green 5 (Lab+Green 42) Base 97
Canterbury Nat 48 Lab 30 Green 12 (Lab+Green 42) Base 122
SI Nat 49 Lab 27 Green 19 (Lab+Green 46) Base 81
Strongest to Weakest Lab+Green Lead over Nat
18-29 Lab+Green 48 Nat 41 (+ 7)
Female Lab+Green 49 Nat 46 (+ 3)
30-44 Lab+Green 49 Nat 46 (+ 3)
Wellington Lab+Green 46 Nat 47 (- 1)
SI Lab+Green 46 Nat 49 (- 3)
Canterbury Lab+Green 42 Nat 48 (- 6)
Auckland Lab+Green 42 Nat 50 (- 8)
Lower NI Lab+Green 42 Nat 51 (- 9)
Upper NI Lab+Green 37 Nat 50 (- 13)
45-64 Lab+Green 38 Nat 53 (- 15)
Male Lab+Green 34 Nat 54 (- 20)
65 + Lab+Green 35 Nat 56 (- 21)
(B) Time for a Change of Government ?
Male No 54 Yes 41 DK 5 Base 492
Female No 43 Yes 53 DK 4 Base 526
18-29 No 40 Yes 53 DK 7 Base 199
30-44 No 41 Yes 54 DK 5 Base 258
45-64 No 54 Yes 42 DK 4 Base 358
65 + No 56 Yes 41 DK 3 Base 203
Auckland No 48 Yes 47 DK 5 Base 336
Upper NI No 46 Yes 48 DK 6 Base 200
Wellington No 48 Yes 50 DK 2 Base 112
Lower NI No 46 Yes 52 DK 3 Base 122
Canterbury No 52 Yes 44 DK 5 Base 140
SI No 49 Yes 45 DK 7 Base 108
Strongest to Weakest Yes Lead over No
30-44 Yes 54 No 41 (+ 13)
18-29 Yes 53 No 40 (+ 13)
Female Yes 53 No 43 (+ 10)
Lower NI Yes 52 No 46 (+ 6)
Wellington Yes 50 No 48 (+ 2)
Upper NI Yes 48 No 46 (+ 2)
Auckland Yes 47 No 48 (- 1)
SI Yes 45 No 49 (- 4)
Canterbury Yes 44 No 52 (- 8)
45-64 Yes 42 No 54 (- 12)
Male Yes 41 No 54 (- 13)
65 + Yes 41 No 56 (- 15)
Note: Based on the little map accompanying the Fairfax Ipsos Poll graphics in a 2013 report, it looks like:
- Auckland = covers the City of Auckland (formerly Greater Auckland) + a swathe of Marsden / Kiapara in the north and Counties-Manakau in the south. So not just metro Auckland.
- Upper NI = the rest of the upper NI (the northern two=thirds of Northland, Waikato, Gisborne, Bay of Plenty).
- Wellington = not just Greater Wellington but also rural Horowhenua and Wairarapa.
- Lower NI = Taranaki, Hawkes Bay, the central NI and Palmerston North and Manawatu.
- Canterbury = all of Canterbury Province + the southern half of Marlborough
- SI = the rest of the SI
Click on Read More for the full demographic breakdowns of the May and June Fairfax-Ipsos Polls
Fairfax-Ipsos Poll
(2) May 2014
(A) Party Support
Male Nat 53 Lab 22 Green 13 (Lab+Green 35) Base 409
Female Nat 43 Lab 36 Green 12 (Lab+Green 48) Base 417
18-29 Nat 30 Lab 37 Green 20 (Lab+Green 57) Base 121
30-44 Nat 46 Lab 31 Green 15 (Lab+Green 46) Base 205
45-64 Nat 56 Lab 25 Green 11 (Lab+Green 36) Base 318
65 + Nat 49 Lab 29 Green 7 (Lab+Green 36) Base 182
Auckland Nat 48 Lab 29 Green 12 (Lab+Green 41) Base 250
Upper NI Nat 48 Lab 34 Green 10 (Lab+Green 44) Base 176
Wellington Nat 36 Lab 41 Green 15 (Lab+Green 56) Base 91
Lower NI Nat 58 Lab 27 Green 8 (Lab+Green 35) Base 96
Canterbury Nat 48 Lab 24 Green 14 (Lab+Green 38) Base 112
SI Nat 49 Lab 20 Green 22 (Lab+Green 42) Base 101
Strongest to Weakest Lab+Green Lead over Nat
18-29 Lab+Green 57 Nat 30 (+ 27)
Wellington Lab+Green 56 Nat 36 (+ 20)
Female Lab+Green 48 Nat 43 (+ 5)
30-44 Lab+Green 46 Nat 46 ( = )
Upper NI Lab+Green 44 Nat 48 (- 4)
SI Lab+Green 42 Nat 49 (- 7)
Auckland Lab+Green 41 Nat 48 (- 7)
Canterbury Lab+Green 38 Nat 48 (- 10)
65 + Lab+Green 36 Nat 49 (- 13)
Male Lab+Green 35 Nat 53 (- 18)
45-64 Lab+Green 36 Nat 56 (- 20)
Lower NI Lab+Green 35 Nat 58 (- 23)
(B) Time for a Change of Government ?
Male No 53 Yes 42 DK 5 Base 493
Female No 43 Yes 50 DK 6 Base 518
18-29 No 32 Yes 61 DK 8 Base 184
30-44 No 50 Yes 44 DK 7 Base 253
45-64 No 55 Yes 42 DK 3 Base 362
65 + No 52 Yes 42 DK 6 Base 212
Auckland No 48 Yes 45 DK 7 Base 314
Upper NI No 48 Yes 49 DK 4 Base 218
Wellington No 43 Yes 53 DK 5 Base 107
Lower NI No 55 Yes 41 DK 3 Base 120
Canterbury No 51 Yes 44 DK 5 Base 131
SI No 44 Yes 46 DK 10 Base 121
Strongest to Weakest Yes Lead over No
18-29 Yes 61 No 32 (+ 29)
Wellington Yes 53 No 43 (+ 10)
Female Yes 50 No 43 (+ 7)
SI Yes 46 No 44 (+ 2)
Upper NI Yes 49 No 48 (+ 1)
Auckland Yes 45 No 48 (- 3)
30-44 Yes 44 No 50 (- 6)
Canterbury Yes 44 No 51 (- 7)
65 + Yes 42 No 52 (- 10)
Male Yes 42 No 53 (- 11)
45-64 Yes 42 No 55 (- 13)
Lower NI Yes 41 No 55 (- 14)
Fairfax-Ipsos Poll
(3) June 2014
(A) Party Support
Male Nat 61 Lab 19 Green 11 (Lab+Green 30) Base 389
Female Nat 53 Lab 28 Green 12 (Lab+Green 40) Base 388
18-29 Nat 49 Lab 28 Green 14 (Lab+Green 42) Base 115
30-44 Nat 58 Lab 17 Green 19 (Lab+Green 36) Base 195
45-64 Nat 57 Lab 25 Green 10 (Lab+Green 35) Base 290
65 + Nat 61 Lab 24 Green 6 (Lab+Green 30) Base 177
Auckland Nat 56 Lab 24 Green 12 (Lab+Green 36) Base 253
Upper NI Nat 61 Lab 22 Green 7 (Lab+Green 29) Base 147
Wellington Nat 48 Lab 27 Green 16 (Lab+Green 43) Base 108
Lower NI Nat 60 Lab 19 Green 13 (Lab+Green 32) Base 87
Canterbury Nat 56 Lab 28 Green 11 (Lab+Green 39) Base 98
SI Nat 56 Lab 19 Green 18 (Lab+Green 37) Base 84
Strongest to Weakest Lab+Green Lead over Nat
Wellington Lab+Green 43 Nat 48 (- 5)
18-29 Lab+Green 42 Nat 49 (- 7)
Female Lab+Green 40 Nat 53 (- 13)
Canterbury Lab+Green 39 Nat 56 (- 17)
SI Lab+Green 37 Nat 56 (- 19)
Auckland Lab+Green 36 Nat 56 (- 20)
30-44 Lab+Green 36 Nat 58 (- 22)
45-64 Lab+Green 35 Nat 57 (- 22)
Lower NI Lab+Green 32 Nat 60 (- 28)
Male Lab+Green 30 Nat 61 (- 31)
65 + Lab+Green 30 Nat 61 (- 31)
Upper NI Lab+Green 29 Nat 61 (- 32)
(B) Time for a Change of Government ?
Male No 54 Yes 38 DK 8 Base 500
Female No 42 Yes 49 DK 9 Base 514
18-29 No 36 Yes 52 DK 13 Base 186
30-44 No 48 Yes 45 DK 8 Base 255
45-64 No 51 Yes 42 DK 6 Base 362
65 + No 56 Yes 36 DK 8 Base 211
Auckland No 50 Yes 42 DK 8 Base 324
Upper NI No 49 Yes 40 DK 11 Base 194
Wellington No 45 Yes 48 DK 7 Base 134
Lower NI No 44 Yes 49 DK 8 Base 120
Canterbury No 48 Yes 43 DK 9 Base 129
SI No 48 Yes 47 DK 11 Base 113
Strongest to Weakest Yes Lead over No
18-29 Yes 52 No 36 (+ 16)
Female Yes 49 No 42 (+ 7)
Lower NI Yes 49 No 44 (+ 5)
Wellington Yes 48 No 45 (+ 3)
SI Yes 47 No 48 (- 1)
30-44 Yes 45 No 48 (- 3)
Canterbury Yes 43 No 48 (- 5)
Auckland Yes 42 No 50 (- 8)
45-64 Yes 42 No 51 (- 9)
Upper NI Yes 40 No 49 (- 9)
Male Yes 38 No 54 (- 16)
65 + Yes 36 No 56 (- 20)
