[This post is still a work in progress. I'll add bits and pieces as I go along]
[For the more detailed Fairfax/Stuff-Ipsos Poll breakdowns - either scroll down to bottom of blog and click on my earlier post 'Fairfax-Ipsos Poll - February, May and June 2014' or simply click this link... http://sub-z-p.blogspot.co.nz/2014/06/fairfax-ipsos-poll-february-2014.html I certainly know which of these two options I'd choose if I was in your shoes]
[For a plethora of shots of the Faroes, the Norwegian Fjords and the Lofoten Islands click this link with a great deal of gusto.... http://sub-z-p.blogspot.co.nz/2014/06/to-north-places-id-like-to-visit-during.html ]
[And, for my first post, 'Beware the Polls of March' scroll to bottom of blog or click this link http://sub-z-p.blogspot.co.nz/2014_04_01_archive.html ]
Introduction
Well, the headlines said it all, didn't they ?: 'Poll shows Labour's Support Plummeting' (Fairfax/Dom Post), 'Labour looks in serious disarray' (Herald on Sunday), 'Labour Smashed in Latest Poll' (NBR), 'Labour hits 23%' (Kiwiblog), 'The Clock is ticking after latest Poll Disaster' (Whaleoil), and simply 'Good Grief' (Dim Post) - to name just a few. All reactions to the Mid-June Fairfax/Stuff-Ipsos Poll bomb-shell that suggested National was soaring to unprecedented heights, while Labour support - already moribund - had just taken a 6 point nose-dive, the Party plummeting towards the sort of disastrous territory occupied by the Nats in 2002.
For Fairfax's Andrea Vance, the poll confirmed that - "After a wave of dismal results" - "Cunliffe is now facing electoral humiliation." Writing in the Dominion Post a few days later, Duncan Garner argued Labour is "a train wreck under David Cunliffe and Labour MPs are grumpy, nervous, and wondering what they may be doing for a crust after September 20...After this week's horrors he looks unelectable as the next prime minister". "Could Labour", Garner asked, "be on track to record its worst-ever election defeat ?". His conclusion: "Yes". The Herald on Sunday thought Labour's poll result "abysmal", while the NBR called it "dire". At the Right-Wing end of the local Blogosphere, David Farrar on Kiwiblog highlighted the fact that the poll was conducted before the Dong Liu affair - "God knows", Farrar concluded, "where (Labour's poll ratings) would be today, except to say they seem well place (sic) to beat National's record of 21% in 2002". Not to be outdone, Farrar's fellow National-aligned blogger, Cameron Slater (Whaleoil) suggested that after the latest Fairfax-Ipsos, "Cunliffe may as well jump off the cliff rather than be pushed by his angry caucus".
Even some in more progressive circles, like senior journalist and commentator, Gordon Campbell, agreed that "Labour is headed for catastrophe of the sort that befell National in 2002". While for the Dim Post's Danyl MacLaughlin, the Fairfax poll may have been "a bit of an outlier" but it still confirmed his strong conviction that "...lots of Labour voters...freaked out by Internet/Mana" were "switching to National.", thus apparently almost guaranteeing the latter "an historic victory". Elsewhere, the poll has been described as "a major blow", "very grim reading" and "a real disaster" for Labour while, at the same time, helping to trigger another round of speculation regarding a possible leadership coup (though the general consensus in the MSM and blogosphere was that this was unlikely to happen).
There are a number of problems with this line of reasoning.
First, the Poll clearly was an outlier, bordering on rogue status. As the tables immediately below show, the results of the June 2014 Fairfax/Stuff-Ipsos clearly clash quite violently with other polls taken around the same time.
Roy Morgan Fairfax/Stuff-Ipsos 3 News Reid Early June (2-15) Mid June (14-17) Late June (19-25)
Nat 49.5 (down 3) Nat 56.5 (up 8.9) Nat 49.7 (down 0.6)
Lab 28.0 (down 1) Lab 23.2 (down 6.3) Lab 27.3 (down 2.2)
Green 12.0 (up 3) Green 11.9 (down 0.8) Green 12.7 (up 2.5)
NZF 4 (down 0.5) NZF 3.2 (down 0.5) NZF 3.6 (down 2.0)
Maori 1 (down 0.5) Maori 0.7 (down 1.2) Maori 1.5 (up 0.9)
IMP 2.5 (up 1.5) IMP 1.2 (up 0.1) IMP 1.8 (up 1.0)
Act 0.5 (down 0.5) Act 0.7 (down 0.2) Act 0.4 (down 0.1)
UF 0 ( = ) UF 0 (down 0.1) UF 0 ( = )
Con 1.5 (up 0.5) Con 0.9 (down 0.7) Con 2.8 (up 0.5)
L+G 40.0 (up 2) L+G 35.1 (down 7.1) L+G 40.0 (up 0.3)
Right 52.5 (down 3.5) Right 58.8 (up 6.7) Right 54.4 (up 0.7)
Left 42.5 (up 3.5) Left 36.3 (down 7.0) Left 41.8 (up 1.3)
Nat 7.0 points higher in Fairfax compared to RM Herald-Digipoll
Lab 4.8 points lower in Fairfax compared to RM Early-Mid June (6-15)
L+G 4.9 points lower in Fairfax compared to RM
Right 6.3 points higher in Fairfax compared to RM Nat 50.4 (down 0.4)
Left 6.2 points lower in Fairfax compared to RM Lab 30.5 (up 1.0)
Green 10.7 (down 2.4)
Nat 6.8 points higher in Fairfax compared to 3 News NZF 3.6 ( = )
Lab 4.1 points lower in Fairfax compared to 3 News Maori 0.8 (up 0.6)
L+G 4.9 points lower in Fairfax compared to 3 News IMP 1.4 (up 1.3)
Right 4.4 points higher in Fairfax compared to 3 News Act 0.7 (down 0.1)
Left 5.5 points lower in Fairfax compared to 3 News UF 0.1 (up 0.1)
Con Nat 6.1 points higher in Fairfax compared to HD L+G 41.2 (down 1.4)
Lab 7.3 points lower in Fairfax compared to HD
L+G 6.1 points lower in Fairfax compared to HD Right 53.5 (up 0.4)
Right 5.3 points higher in Fairfax compared to HD Left 42.6 (down 0.1)
Left 6.3 points lower in Fairfax compared to HD
You can see that the Fairfax-Ipsos recorded National support 6 or 7 points higher (and the broader Right Bloc anywhere from 4.4 to 6.3 points higher) than the three polls taken immediately before or after (this, of course, includes the 3 News Reid Research Poll which, unlike the Fairfax, was carried out during the most aggressive, intense and potentially damaging phase of the so-called Liu "scandal"). Labour's rating, meanwhile, was anywhere between 4 and 7 points lower in the Fairfax compared to the other three polls, with combined Labour+Green support 5 to 6 points lower and the Left Bloc as a whole also around 6 points lower.
Although less important, given differing time-lag effects, we might also note the quite striking contrast in support movement. In the June Fairfax, the Nats enjoy a massive 9 point swing, whereas the Party is slightly down in the other three polls (perhaps more than slightly in the Roy Morgan). Similarly, the Right Bloc as a whole are on the receiving end of a hefty 7 point swing in the Fairfax, but are either down or only very slightly up in the other three. Meanwhile, Labour (down 6 points), Lab+Green combined (down 7 points) and the Left Bloc as a whole (also down 7) plunge heavily in the Fairfax and yet they're either slightly up or only mildly down in the other three polls.
Click on Read More for (1) the Left-to-Undecided swing recorded in the latest Fairfax-Ipsos, (2) the difference in Party Support when we re-calculate as a proportion of the entire sample for the last 3 Fairfax-Ipsos Polls, (3) the Change of Government mood for the last 3 Fairfax-Ipsos, (4) a comparison of Party Support and Change of Government mood for each demographic, and (5) a demographic breakdown of the changing proportion of Undecideds for the last 3 Fairfax-Ipsos Polls.
(Most of this involves statistics, I still have more written analysis to complete)
Then again, given the atmosphere of hysteria (bordering, at times, on a fevered witch-hunt) that has surrounded Cunliffe and the arguably highly-contrived Liu affair, it's perhaps little wonder that, during its height, poll analysis too became more than a little over-heated.
Second (more analysis to go here on the crucial importance of the Undecideds)
On the face of it, then, we appear to have just witnessed a whopping 7 point swing from Left to Right, most of it seemingly from Labour to National. That's certainly what you'd be forced to conclude if you relied solely on the Decided respondents (as the MSM is apt to do) (although, as I mention below, there are, at last, some pleasing signs of Fairfax/Stuff journalists taking a broader and more sophisticated approach). However, I'd argue that, in order to properly understand the change in sentiment, it's crucial to re-calculate the Poll's Party-Support figures on the basis of the entire sample (thus allowing for potentially important movement in and out of the Undecided category). Do that and you get the following:
LEFT BLOC - 7.6 points
RIGHT BLOC + 2.4 points
UNDECIDED + 5.1 points
So, in fact, the latest Fairfax/Stuff-Ipsos records, first and foremost, a major (net) swing from the Left Bloc into Undecided territory and, at the same time, a relatively minor swing from Left to Right. That, I think, is a much more accurate indication of the change in popular sentiment.
Fairfax-Ipsos Poll
(a) Party Support
(1) Decided Voters
February 2014
Nat 49%, Lab 32%, Green 10%, NZF 4%, Maori 1%, IMP 0%, Act 1%, UF 0%, Con 2%
Right Bloc 53% , Left Bloc 42%
(1) Nat lead over Lab = 17
(2) Nat lead over L+G = 7
(3) Right lead over Left = 11
May 2014
Nat 48% (- 1), Lab 30% (- 2), Green 13% (+ 3), NZF 4% ( = ), Maori 2% (+ 1), IMP 1% (+ 1), Act 1% ( = ), UF 0% ( = ), Con 2% ( = )
Right Bloc 52% (- 1) , Left Bloc 43% (+ 1)
(1) Nat lead over Lab = 18
(2) Nat lead over L+G = 5
(3) Right lead over Left = 9
June 2014
Nat 57% (+ 9), Lab 23% (- 7), Green 12% (- 1), NZF 3% (- 1), Maori 1% (- 1), IMP 1% ( = ), Act 1% ( = ), UF 0% ( = ), Con 1% (- 1)
Right Bloc 59% (+ 7) , Left Bloc 36% (- 7)
(1) Nat lead over Lab = 34
(2) Nat lead over L+G = 22
(3) Right lead over Left = 23
(2) Entire Sample
February 2014
Nat 41%, Lab 26%, Green 8%, NZF 3%, Maori 1%, IMP 0%, Act 0%, UF 0%, Con 2%
Right Bloc 44%, Left Bloc 35%
Undecided 17%
(1) Nat lead over Lab = 15
(2) Nat lead over L+G = 7
(3) Right lead over Left = 9
May 2014
Nat 39% (- 2), Lab 24% (- 2), Green 10% (+ 2), NZF 3% ( = ), Maori 2% (+ 1), IMP 1% (+ 1), Act 1% (+ 1), UF 0% ( = ), Con 1% (- 1)
Right Bloc 43% (- 1), Left Bloc 35% ( = )
Undecided 18% (+ 1)
(1) Nat lead over Lab = 15
(2) Nat lead over L+G = 5
(3) Right lead over Left = 8
June 2014
Nat 43% (+ 4), Lab 18% (- 6), Green 9% (- 1), NZF 3% ( = ), Maori 1% (- 1), IMP 1% ( = ), Act 1% ( = ), UF 0% ( = ), Con 1% ( = )
Right Bloc 45% (+ 2), Left Bloc 28% (- 7)
Undecided 23% (+ 5)
(1) Nat lead over Lab = 25
(2) Nat lead over L+G = 16
(3) Right lead over Left = 17
(b) Change of Government
February 2014
Yes, Change Government 47%
No, Keep Present Government 48%
Don't Know 5%
May 2014
Yes, Change Government 46% (- 1)
No, Keep Present Government 48% ( = )
Don't Know 6% (+ 1)
June 2014
Yes, Change Government 44% (- 2)
No, Keep Present Government 48% ( = )
Don't Know 8% (+ 2)
Comparing: (1) Party Support (Decideds and Definite Voters only) VS (2) Change of Government mood (Entire Sample) - for each Demographic (June 2014 Fairfax/Stuff-Ipsos Poll)
These stats compare the Party Support figures with the Mood for a Change of Government figures for each demographic. Once again, you can see how the MSM focus on Decideds only can grossly distort the public's understanding of current trends in public opinion. The inclusion of Undecideds and likely Non-Voters makes a quite extraordinary difference to many of these demographics. For instance, you'd have to assume - if you relied solely on Party Support figures - that women greatly favoured the Nats over the 2 key parties of the Left combined. National wins among women by a significant 13 points. Clearly, on this basis, women are very keen on the present Government and have no desire for change. But you'd be wrong. Once the Undecideds/Likely Non-Voters are included (Do You Want a Change of Government ? Question), we find that women prefer a change of Government by a clear 7 point margin. And, as you can see, the difference with 18-29 year olds, respondents residing in the Upper North Island and, above all, those living in the Lower North Island is even greater. The last of these look like overwhelming National supporters but, in fact, turn out to favour a change of Government by a mild but relatively clear margin.
Yes = Yes, Change Government No = No, Keep Present Government
L+G = Labour+Green support combined Nat = National support
18-29 Yes 52 No 36 (+ 16)
18-29 L+G 42 Nat 49 (- 7)
Female Yes 49 No 42 (+ 7)
Female L+G 40 Nat 53 (- 13)
Lower NI Yes 49 No 44 (+ 5)
Lower NI L+G 32 Nat 60 (- 28)
Wellington Yes 48 No 45 (+ 3)
Wellington L+G 43 Nat 48 (- 5)
SI Yes 47 No 48 (- 1)
SI L+G 37 Nat 56 (- 19)
30-44 Yes 45 No 48 (- 3)
30-44 L+G 36 Nat 58 (- 22)
Canterbury Yes 43 No 48 (- 5)
Canterbury L+G 39 Nat 56 (- 17)
Auckland Yes 42 No 50 (- 8)
Auckland L+G 36 Nat 56 (- 20)
45-64 Yes 42 No 51 (- 9)
45-64 L+G 35 Nat 57 (- 22)
Upper NI Yes 40 No 49 (- 9)
Upper NI L+G 29 Nat 61 (- 32)
Male Yes 38 No 54 (- 16)
Male L+G 30 Nat 61 (- 31)
65 + Yes 36 No 56 (- 20)
65 + L+G 30 Nat 61 (- 31)
(February - June Fairfax/Stuff-Ipsos Polls)
Demographics - The Changing Proportion of Undecideds
In order of Highest to Lowest Undecided % in June 2014
18-29 ..............Feb 32% .......May 34% (+ 2)........June 38% (+ 4)....... Feb-June (+ 6)
Lower NI .......Feb 21% .......May 20% (- 1).........June 28% (+ 8)....... Feb-June (+ 7)
SI ....................Feb 25% .......May 17% (- 8).........June 26% (+ 9)....... Feb-June (+ 1)
Female ...........Feb 16% .......May 20% (+ 4)........June 25% (+ 5).........Feb-June (+ 9)
30-44 ..............Feb 19% ........May 19% ( = )........June 24% (+ 5).........Feb-June (+ 5)
Upper NI .......Feb 16% ........May 19%(+ 3)........June 24% (+ 5).........Feb-June (+ 8)
Canterbury ...Feb 13% ........May 15% (+ 2).......June 24% (+ 9).........Feb-June (+ 11)
Auckland ......Feb 18% ........May 20% (+ 2)........June 22% (+ 2).........Feb-June (+ 4)
Male ..............Feb 18% ........May 17% (- 1).........June 22% (+ 5).........Feb-June (+ 4)
45-64 .............Feb 11% ........May 12% (+ 1)........June 20% (+ 8)..........Feb-June (+ 9)
Wellington ...Feb 10% .........May 15% (+ 5).......June 19% (+ 4)...........Feb-June (+ 9)
65 + ...............Feb 11% .........May 14% (+ 3).......June 16% (+ 2)...........Feb-June (+ 5)
