2011 Epsom vote
Act Party-Vote 3% (939 votes), Candidate-Vote 44% (15,835)
Nat Party-Vote 65% (23,725), Candidate-Vote 38% (13,574)
Lab Party-Vote 16% (5,716), Candidate-Vote 10% (3,751)
Green Party-Vote 12% (4,424), Candidate-Vote 6% (2,160)
2011 Split-Vote
(To read: Act received 939 Party-Votes in Epsom in 2011, 80% of those 939 Act voters (751 voters) cast their Candidate-Vote for Banks, 14% (131) cast their Candidate-Vote for Goldsmith etc)
Party-Vote.............................Candidate-Vote
Act 939.......Banks (Act) 80% (751 votes), Goldsmith (Nat) 14% (131),
Parker (Lab) 1% (6), Hay (Green) 0% (4)
Nat 23,725.......Banks (Act) 60% (14,268), Goldsmith (Nat) 34% (8,126),
Parker (Lab) 1% (185), Hay (Green) 2% (498)
Lab 5,716.......Banks (Act) 5% (267), Goldsmith (Nat) 35% (2028),
Parker (Lab) 47% (2,705), Hay (Green) 7% (414)
Green 4,424.......Banks (Act) 4% (184), Goldsmith (Nat) 54% (2,401),
Parker (Lab) 13% (582), Hay (Green) 25% (1092)
So, at the 2011 Election, Banks (Act) (15,835 votes) had a majority over Goldsmith (Nat) (13,574) of 2261 votes.
35% of Labour voters and 54% of Green voters cast their Candidate-Vote for Goldsmith in 2011 (most, no doubt, strategically).
Just needs, for instance, another 10% of Labour voters (45%), another 10% of Green voters (64%) and another 6% of National voters (40%) to Candidate-Vote Goldsmith and Act will be defeated in Epsom. National voters, however, are really the key here and it's not necessarily going to be all that easy to shift them. We need to remember that even in the wake of the various scandals that enveloped Act before the 2011 Election, 60% of Epsom Nats were still prepared to hold their nose and cast their Candidate-Vote for Banks.
Still, worth a go, eh.
