ABOVE: ACT leader Jamie Whyte
A couple of weeks ago, I posted this year's poll results for the four largest Parties - National, Labour, the Greens and NZ First.
A few people have since asked me to do the same for the minor parties. So here are the relevant stats.
Below the main table, as a way of providing a quick, easily digestable, overview, I've set out the averages for the minor parties, along with a very brief written analysis.
I present averages for each of the minor parties for:
(1) all of 2014 up to the present (January to mid-July)
(2) a First Quarter (Jan-March) and Second Quarter (April-mid July) comparison to highlight - in broad terms - who's on the way up, who's flatlining, and who's trending down
(3) Monthly averages (in order to allow a more nuanced view of polling trends)
(4) Each of the five Public Polls (in order to highlight which of the Polls tend to be better or worse for each of the minor parties)
Click on Read More for full stats and analysis
2014 Opinion Poll Results - Minor Parties
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IMP Maori Cons ACT UF
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January
Roy Morgan
Mid January................0.5..............2.0...............2.5...............0............0.5
3 News Reid Research
Late January................0.3..............1.0...............2.1...............0.............0
Roy Morgan
Late January................1.5..............1.5...............1.5...............0.............0
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February IMP Maori Cons ACT UF
Fairfax-Ipsos
Early February...............0.3.............1.1...............2.1.............0.5...........0.1
Roy Morgan
Early February...............1.5..............0.5..............1.0.............1.0............0.5
One News Colmar-Brunton
Mid February..................0................0.9..............1.3..............0.4...........0.3
Roy Morgan
Late February.................0.5.............1.5...............2.5.............1.0............0.5
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March IMP Maori Cons ACT UF
Herald-DigiPoll
Early March...................0.1..............0.2...............1.3.............0.8............0
Roy Morgan
Early March....................0................2.0................1.5.............0.5...........0.5
One News Colmar-Brunton
Late March......................0................0.7................2.3.............0.3...........0.1
3 News Reid Research
Late March....................1.5...............1.5................1.9.............1.1...........0.1
Roy Morgan
Late March..........................1.0...............1.5................2.5..............0.5...........0.5
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April IMP Maori Cons ACT UF
Roy Morgan
Early April......................2.0.............1.0...............2.0............0.5............0
Roy Morgan
Late April........................2.5.............1.0...............0.5............0.5............0.5
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May IMP Maori Cons ACT UF
Fairfax-Ipsos
Early May......................0.5.............1.9..............1.6............0.9...........0.1
Roy Morgan
Mid May........................1.5.............1.0...............1.0............0.5...........0
One News Colmar-Brunton
Mid May........................1.0..............1.0..............1.0............1.0............0
3 News Reid Research
Mid May........................0.8..............0.6..............2.3.............0.5............0
Roy Morgan
Late May........................1.0..............1.5..............1.0.............1.0............0
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June IMP Maori Cons ACT UF
Roy Morgan
Early June......................2.5.............1.0..............1.5.............0.5............0
Herald-DigiPoll
Early June......................1.4.............0.8..............1.5.............0.7.............0.1
Fairfax-Ipsos
Mid June........................2.1.............0.7..............0.9.............0.7..............0
3 News Reid Research
Late June........................1.8.............1.5..............2.8.............0.4..............0
One News Colmar-Brunton
Late June........................2.3.............1.2..............1.0.............0.7...............0
Roy Morgan
Late June........................2.5.............1.5..............1.0.............1.0...............0
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July IMP Maori Cons ACT UF
Roy Morgan
Early July.....................1.5..............1.0.............1.0.............0.5............0.5
Fairfax-Ipsos
Early July.....................1.2..............0.9.............1.3.............0.1............0.2
[Note: The following Polls were released after I published this post and therefore their results are not included in my analysis of minor party poll averages (below). I may,
however, update both the stats and the written analysis in a few weeks time]
Herald-DigiPoll
Mid July........................2.2..............0.5.............1.2..............0..............0
3 News Reid Research
Mid July........................2.3..............1.1..............2.7.............0.1............0.2
One News Colmar-Brunton
Mid July........................2.0..............1.0..............2.0.............1.0............0.2
Roy Morgan
Late July........................2.5..............1.5..............1.0.............0.5............0.5
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First: A Caveat to the following overview. We need, of course, to be cautious about assuming the figures are absolutely precise, given the sampling error intrinsic to all opinion polls. For a minor party receiving 2% support, for example, the margin of error for a single poll is around plus or minus 1 percentage point. And the margin of error is even higher when comparing support movement between polls. You could argue, of course, that this fact pretty much negates any kind of meaningful analysis of the minor party statistics. But, in order to say at least something vaguely cogent about recent polling trends, I'll proceed here on the basis that the figures are, indeed, precisely accurate and simply ask you to keep this important qualifier in mind.
In broad terms, Internet-Mana (IMP) are the big winners among the minor parties this year. Their support average almost tripled (from 0.6 to 1.6%) between the first and second quarters, making them the most popular of the minor parties over the last 3 months as a whole.
Colin Craig's Conservatives, by contrast, can be considered the main losers. They were easily the most popular of the minor parties in the first quarter (1.9%) but have since fallen to a second quarter average of 1.4% - a little behind IMP.
Support for both the Maori and ACT parties has remained relatively stable (at least through the broad lens of quarterly averages), with United Future - quite clearly the least popular of the minor parties - mildly trending down (although, given the low base that it started from, you could make an argument that the party's decline is more than mild - a loss of fully two-thirds of its first quarter support if you were to assume the figures are precise).
At a more nuanced level, the Monthly poll averages show that April was the crucial month for the IMP. The Internet Party was officially launched on March 27 and, in its immediate wake, the Internet and Mana parties' combined support more than quadrupled. There has, however, been quite a bit of movement in the Party's average over the last 3 months. A sharp decline in May, followed by a boost in June (immediately after the Internet-Mana merger and the announcement that Laila Harre would be leader) and then another - albeit milder - dip in the last two polls.
April was also crucial for Colin Craig's Conservatives but in a negative way. The Party suffered a sharp decline, recovering only slightly in May-June, and then (like IMP) falling again in the latest two polls.
The Maori Party's fortunes fell in February (losing a third of its support), but since then its ratings have been remarkably stable. ACT's support has proved equally stable, albeit with the obvious exception of poor results in both January and early July.
Given that United Future's poll support is at such a low level, it's difficult to say anything particularly cogent about its rating trends. Clearly, though, it reached its nadir in May-June and has bounced back a little in the latest two polls. (a slight word of caution, here. Roy Morgan round the minor parties up or down to the nearest half percentage point - so it's possible some of UF's 0% scores specifically in the Roy Morgan polls were, in fact, 0.1 or 0.2%. Not that it really makes too much of a difference).
A brief analysis of the averages for each of the minor parties by polling organization follows at the bottom of the post.
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Poll Averages IMP Maori Cons ACT UF
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(1) 2014
Jan-July 1.2 1.1 1.6 0.6 0.2
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(2) Quarterly
First Quarter
Jan-March 0.6 1.2 1.9 0.5 0.3
Second Quarter
April-July 1.6 1.1 1.4 0.6 0.1
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(3) Monthly IMP Maori Cons ACT UF
January 0.8 1.5 2.0 0 0.2
February 0.6 1.0 1.7 0.7 0.4
March 0.5 1.2 1.9 0.6 0.2
April 2.3 1.0 1.3 0.5 0.3
May 1.0 1.2 1.4 0.8 0
June 2.1 1.1 1.5 0.7 0
July 1.4 1.0 1.2 0.3 0.4
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(4) By Poll IMP Maori Cons ACT UF
Roy Morgan
(13 Polls) 1.4 1.3 1.5 0.6 0.3
Herald-DigiPoll
(2 Polls) 0.8 0.5 1.4 0.8 0.1
One News Colmar-Brunton
(4 Polls) 0.8 1.0 1.4 0.6 0.1
3 News Reid Research
(4 Polls) 1.1 1.2 2.3 0.5 0
Fairfax-Ipsos
(4 Polls) 1.0 1.2 1.5 0.6 0.1
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As you can see, the Roy Morgans tend to record particularly high support for the IMP, with the Party receiving below average ratings in both the Herald-DigiPoll and the One News Colmar-Brunton.
Roy Morgan is also slightly better than average for the Maori Party, with Herald-DigiPoll standing out for its noticeably weak Maori Party ratings.
A clear consensus exists among four of the five Public Polls on Conservative Party support, with 3 News Reid Research conspicuous for its unusually high Con Party ratings.
Little difference appears to exist between the major polling companies with regard to both ACT and United Future - although Herald-DigiPoll slightly favours ACT, with Roy Morgan mildly favouring United Future.
