Fairfax have recently made their Preferred PM (by Party Support) demographics available. The methodology underpinning the Preferred PM measure in the four Public Polls that ask this question (Fairfax-Ipsos, Herald-DigiPoll, One News Colmar Brunton, 3 News Reid Research) tends to be shrouded in ambiguity, leading, in turn, to widespread misinterpretation. I'll try to clarify things in my next post. For now, though, here are the Feb/May/June 2014 Fairfax-Ipsos breakdowns.
Fairfax-Ipsos 2014
Preferred Prime Minister by Party Support
National Supporters
Key.....................June 94%................May 96%................Feb 95%
Cunliffe...............June 0%.................May 0%..................Feb 0%
Peters.................June 0%..................May 1%..................Feb 0%
Norman..............June 0%..................May 0%..................Feb 0%
Turei...................June 0%..................May 0%..................Feb 0%
Other..................June 2%..................May 1%...................Feb 1%
Not Sure.............June 5%..................May 3%...................Feb 4%
Labour Supporters
Key.....................June 6%.................May 8%................Feb 7%
Cunliffe..............June 42%...............May 38%..............Feb 50%
Peters..................June 2%.................May 4%................Feb 3%
Norman...............June 2%.................May 2%................Feb 1%
Turei....................June 0%.................May 0%................Feb 0%
Other...................June 11%................May 7%................Feb 7%
Not Sure..............June 37%................May 42%..............Feb 33%
Green Supporters
Key.......................June 6%..................May 6%................Feb 12%
Cunliffe................June 17%................May 33%..............Feb 36%
Peters....................June 1%..................May 1%................Feb 0%
Norman................June 23%...............May 12%................Feb 16%
Turei....................June 4%.................May 3%..................Feb 9%
Other...................June 11%................May 14%................Feb 6%
Not Sure...............June 39%...............May 31%................Feb 21%
NZ First Supporters
Key......................June 17%..................May 20%..................Feb 24%
Cunliffe...............June 15%..................May 9%....................Feb 6%
Peters..................June 47%..................May 46%..................Feb 58%
Norman..............June 0%....................May 0%....................Feb 0%
Turei..................June 0%.....................May 0%....................Feb 0%
Other.................June 0%......................May 4%....................Feb 3%
Not Sure............June 22%....................May 22%..................Feb 9%
A number of factors appear to stand out:
- National supporters overwhelmingly prefer Key (over 90%)
- Labour supporters prefer Cunliffe first and foremost (currently 42%), but "Not Sure" comes a close second (37%), with very few going for Key (6%)
- Green voters also express a high "Not Sure" response (39%), followed by Norman (23%) and Cunliffe (17%). Like Labour supporters, the Greens show little enthusiasm for Key (6% - only half his February rating)
- Despite talk of "The Peters Party", less than half of NZ First supporters in fact prefer Peters as PM, with the rest relatively evenly divided between Key, Cunliffe and Not Sure
- Cunliffe clearly took a hit among Labour supporters following the Trust Donations controversy (May 38%, compared to February 50%), with most of this 12% moving into "Not Sure" territory. He has since bounced back to some degree
- Green supporters have swung away from Cunliffe (down 19 points since February) and towards both Norman and, in particular, the "Not Sure" category (the latter up 17 points since February)
- Among NZ First voters, both Peters' and Key's Preferred PM ratings have declined (down 11 points and 7 points since February respectively), while Cunliffe and "Not Sure" have moved up (+ 8 and + 13)
[A word of caution, though: We need to take into account the fluctuations in Party Support. As an Illustrative Example: The Greens' Party Support declined slightly in the Fairfax-Ipsos June Poll (relative to their rating in May). Theoretically, it's possible that those swinging away from the Greens were disproportionately Cunliffe supporters on the Preferred PM question, thus accounting for part (or, indeed, all) of Cunliffe's decline among Green supporters.That's only a possibility, but it's an illustrative example of why you can't necessarily take February-June swings in Preferred PM ratings at face value]
