Saturday, 30 August 2014

The Red, the Green and the Blue: ................ Left Bloc / Right Bloc Monthly Poll Averages

Following on from the previous post, here are the Monthly Poll Averages (since April) for both (1) The Four Largest Parties and (2) The Left and Right Blocs.

You can see from Table (1) that Labour's monthly average has been falling since May - down 4 points (no surprises there - it's been keenly discussed in the MSM). The other side of the coin: National are up 4 points since April, although you'll notice their average has fallen slightly in August. Over recent weeks, there's been quite a bit of excitable talk throughout the Blogosphere and MSM about the way both the Greens and NZ First are supposedly beginning to take off like a sky rocket (chatter that started before the release of Nicky Hager's Dirty Politics). And yet from the relatively calm perspective of monthly averages (rather than all the giddy excitement as each new poll is released), the Greens are really just holding steady while NZ First are only slightly up on June/July and slightly down on April (albeit a crucial one point rise, given the 5% threshold).

     (1) Monthly Poll Averages           - Four Main Parties          
                      Labour      Green       National      NZ First     
   April            30             13                46                6           
   May             30             11                49                5           
  June             28             12                51                4           
  July              27             12                51                4           
  August         26             12                50                5           

      (2) Monthly Poll Averages          -  Left Bloc / Right Bloc    
                LabGreen    Left    Oppo        (1)Right   (2)Right
   April         43           45         51                47           49      
   May          41           42         47                51           53      
  June          40           42         46                52           54      
  July           39           41         45                53           54      
  August      38           41         45                51           54      

In Table (2):
 LabGreen = Combined Labour+Green support
 Left = Left Bloc (Labour+Green+IMP) support
 Oppo = Opposition Bloc (Left+NZ First) support
(1)Right = Right Bloc (excluding the Conservative Party) support
(2)Right = Right Bloc (including the Conservative Party) support

Unfortunately, it hasn't been a great 5 months for the Left and broader Opposition Blocs. Aggregate Labour+Green support is down 5 points since April, with Left and Opposition Bloc support down 4 points and 6 points respectively. Having said that, both the Left and Opposition Blocs have been holding steady over the last two months. At the other end of the spectrum, the Right Bloc rose sharply between April and July (up 5 points or 6 points depending on whether or not you exclude Colin Craig's Conservatives). But once again, there's a qualifier here: the Right Bloc (sans the Conservatives) has fallen 2 points since July (will Key be regretting his East Coast Bays decision ? - or does he still have a Conservative Party option up his sleeve ?).

Needs to be borne in mind, of course, that both National and the Right have a tendency to nose-dive close to the Election, with their Election-Day Party Vote well down on their poll averages of preceding months. I'll be comparing where we are now with poll averages from the same point in 2008 and 2011 in an up-coming post.