Following on from the previous post, here are the Monthly Poll Averages (since April) for both (1) The Four Largest Parties and (2) The Left and Right Blocs.
You can see from Table (1) that Labour's monthly average has been falling since May - down 4 points (no surprises there - it's been keenly discussed in the MSM). The other side of the coin: National are up 4 points since April, although you'll notice their average has fallen slightly in August. Over recent weeks, there's been quite a bit of excitable talk throughout the Blogosphere and MSM about the way both the Greens and NZ First are supposedly beginning to take off like a sky rocket (chatter that started before the release of Nicky Hager's Dirty Politics). And yet from the relatively calm perspective of monthly averages (rather than all the giddy excitement as each new poll is released), the Greens are really just holding steady while NZ First are only slightly up on June/July and slightly down on April (albeit a crucial one point rise, given the 5% threshold).
(1) Monthly Poll Averages - Four Main Parties
Labour Green National NZ First
April 30 13 46 6
May 30 11 49 5
June 28 12 51 4
July 27 12 51 4
August 26 12 50 5
(2) Monthly Poll Averages - Left Bloc / Right Bloc
LabGreen Left Oppo (1)Right (2)Right
April 43 45 51 47 49
May 41 42 47 51 53
June 40 42 46 52 54
July 39 41 45 53 54
August 38 41 45 51 54
In Table (2):
LabGreen = Combined Labour+Green support
Left = Left Bloc (Labour+Green+IMP) support
Oppo = Opposition Bloc (Left+NZ First) support
(1)Right = Right Bloc (excluding the Conservative Party) support
(2)Right = Right Bloc (including the Conservative Party) support
Unfortunately, it hasn't been a great 5 months for the Left and broader Opposition Blocs. Aggregate Labour+Green support is down 5 points since April, with Left and Opposition Bloc support down 4 points and 6 points respectively. Having said that, both the Left and Opposition Blocs have been holding steady over the last two months. At the other end of the spectrum, the Right Bloc rose sharply between April and July (up 5 points or 6 points depending on whether or not you exclude Colin Craig's Conservatives). But once again, there's a qualifier here: the Right Bloc (sans the Conservatives) has fallen 2 points since July (will Key be regretting his East Coast Bays decision ? - or does he still have a Conservative Party option up his sleeve ?).
Needs to be borne in mind, of course, that both National and the Right have a tendency to nose-dive close to the Election, with their Election-Day Party Vote well down on their poll averages of preceding months. I'll be comparing where we are now with poll averages from the same point in 2008 and 2011 in an up-coming post.
