So it's come to this, has it ?
Having made extravagant promises in previous posts about completing a detailed Two-Parter analysing Poll support for each party in the 18-month run-up to the last two Elections and then, building on that analysis, providing an overview of polling trends over the last 18 months and applying the lessons from 2008 and 2011 in order to get to grips with where we are now, I suddenly find that the Election is upon us. All too late.
So instead: here are my predictions and a brief analysis comparing 2014/2011/2008 monthly and weekly poll averages.
First, in Table 1, I've calculated the monthly poll averages for each Party/Bloc for 2014. I've then calculated the difference between these 2014 Monthly averages and the Monthly averages for the same point out from the 2011 Election. (The 2011 Election was held in late November, so the April 2014 average is compared with the June 2011 average. The May 2014 average is compared with the July 2011 average and so on.....) That, in turn, allows me to calculate what percentage each Party/Bloc would have received had (1) an Election been held in that particular Month (of 2014) and (2) the disparity between the Monthly Poll Average and the actual Election result been the same as in 2011.
You can see from Table 1 that, if we assume the polls this year are out by the same margin as they were in 2011, then in 2014 the Opposition Bloc has consistently been well ahead of the (1)Right Bloc (ie the Right excluding Colin Craig's Conservatives). And from April through to August, the Opposition Bloc has always either been leading the (2)Right Bloc ( ie including the Cons) or has been level. In other words, if the polls this year diverge from the 2014 election result to precisely the same degree that they did in the run-up to the last Election, then the Opposition Bloc (assuming Peters decided to join the Left) has been dominant throughout this year. Despite all the hyperbolic MSM rhetoric suggesting Labour is Dog Tucker and it's All over Bar the Shouting, the Opposition Bloc has, in fact, been the more likely to win this year - if you take into account / control for the consistent over-stating of National and Right Bloc support in 2011.
Table 2 provides similar data for the weeks immediately preceding the Election. Once again, you can see that the Opposition Bloc has, over the last few weeks, remained well ahead of the Right Bloc (excluding the Conservatives) if we assume the same poll-election result disparities that occurred in 2011.
Tables 3 and 4 do the same thing, but based on the assumption that the poll-election result disparities are the same as those at the 2008 Election. You can see that, under this scenario, the Opposition Bloc has been trailing the Right Bloc (whether including or excluding Colin Craig's Conservatives) for most of the year.
The Left would want to hope, then, that the 2014 Polls are out by a similar margin to the disparity in 2011 rather than 2008.
Table 1: Percentages that Parties / Blocs should have expected to
receive if an Election was held in that particular month of 2014 - and if
Monthly Poll Average-Election Result disparity was the same as in
2011
Party/Bloc April May June July August
Labour 26 27 26 27 25
Green 18 14 14 13 13
Left 46 43 43 43 41
NZF 11 10 8 9 10
Opposition Bloc 56 52 50 51 50
National 40 43 44 43 43
(1)Right Bloc 40 44 45 44 44
(2)Right Bloc 44 49 50 48 50
Table 2: Percentages that Parties / Blocs should have expected to receive if an Election was held in that particular week - and if Weekly Poll
Average-Election Result disparity was the same as in 2011
Party/Bloc 4-5 weeks out 3-4 w/o 2-3 w/o 1-2 w/o
Labour 23 24 25 25
Green 15 13 12 12
Left 41 40 39 39
NZF 9 10 9 10
Opposition Bloc 50 50 48 49
National 42 42 45 43
(1)Right Bloc 45 44 46 45
(2)Right Bloc 51 50 52 51
Table 3: Percentages that Parties / Blocs should have expected to receive if an Election was held in that particular month - and if Monthly Poll
Average-Election Result disparity was the same as in 2008
Party/Bloc April May June July August
Labour 31 33 29 25 25
Green 13 11 12 13 13
Left 48 46 44 41 41
NZF 6 5 4 5 6
Opposition Bloc 54 51 48 45 46
National 39 40 45 47 46
(1)Right Bloc 43 45 49 51 49
(2)Right Bloc 45 47 51 52 52
Table 4: Percentages that Parties / Blocs should have expected to receive if an Election was held in that particular week - and if Weekly Poll
Average-Election Result disparity was the same as in 2008
Party/Bloc 4-5 weeks out 3-4 w/o 2-3 w/o 1-2 w/o
Labour 24 25 24 26
Green 13 11 12 11
Left 40 39 38 39
NZF 7 6 7 7
Opposition Bloc 46 45 45 46
National 44 46 47 47
(1)Right Bloc 49 50 50 48
(2)Right Bloc 52 53 53 52
I wanted to set out the 2014/2011/2008 differences for the parties for each month this year to show where we are relative to the previous two elections. But it looks like I'll only have time to do it for the week that's just finished (polls taken between 7 and 14 days before the respective elections).
So below you can see that Labour's poll average last week was 24.3% and that was 2.3 points down on the same point (1-2 weeks out) in 2011 and 8.5 points down on the same point in 2008.
Similarly, National's currently polling 3.9 points below where they were at the same point in 2011, but 2.2 points above the same point in 2008. Most importantly, the Opposition Bloc's up (on both previous elections) and the Right Bloc (sans the Cons) are well down on 2011 (- 5.7 points). Once again, given the significant over-stating of Right Bloc support in the run-up to the 2011 Election, if the poll disparities remain the same as at the last Election then you can basically reverse the 49.5% (Right excluding the Conservatives) and the 46.1% of the Opposition Bloc. As Table 2 shows (1-2 w/o), it would be 49% Opposition Bloc / 45% Right Bloc (minus the Cons). Which is why I think it's crucial for the chances of a Left-NZF Coalition that Colin Craig's Conservatives fail to reach the threshold.
Poll Averages for 1-2 weeks out from 2014 Election compared to Poll
Averages at same point (1-2 weeks out) in 2008 and 2011
2014 14-11 14-08 2011 2008
Labour 24.3 - 2.3 - 8.5 26.6 32.8
Green 13.3 + 0.6 + 4.3 12.7 9.0
Left 39.2 - 0.9 - 2.6 40.1 41.8
NZF 6.9 + 3.4 + 3.1 3.5 3.8
Oppo Bloc 46.1 + 2.5 + 0.5 43.6 45.6
National 47.7 - 3.9 + 2.2 51.6 45.5
(1)Right Bloc 49.5 - 5.7 - 55.2 -
(2)Right Bloc 53.5 - 2.3 + 0.2 55.8 53.3
My Final Result predictions - in percentage terms.
Unfortunately, I think both ACT and UF will win their respective electorates - Epsom and Ohariu (sorry Rosie). Flavell will also take Waiariki, though not by the substantial margin that a recent poll predicted. (The polls always overstate both his support and the gap back to Annette Sykes). You may think I have the Greens a little low, but there are good reasons for that (which I might go into after the Election's done and dusted). Also pays to remember that the Election Night percentages are, of course, by no means the final result. You'd expect, for example, to see the Greens vote rise once those overseas votes flow in.
If the Conservatives cross that threshold then it's all over rover as far as I'm concerned. If they don't then it'll be a close-run thing as to whether Winnie holds the balance of power or we end up with the status-quo (the Nats being able to govern with their wee helpers). But, as my prediction suggests, I'm guessing that - in the event of Craig falling at the last hurdle - it's slightly more likely that Winnie will, indeed, be Kingmaker.
My Predictions for 2014 Election
Labour 25.2
Green 12.1
IMP 2.1
Left 39.4
NZF 8.1
Oppo Bloc 47.5
National 45.2
Maori 0.8
ACT 0.6
United Future 0.5
(1)Right 47.1
Cons 4.7
(2)Right 51.8
