Saturday, 20 September 2014

The Specials

[Update: I posted this on Election Night. Since then, the Electoral Commission's estimated number of Special Votes has increased. And, on top of that, it's become clear that they were not including the estimated 38,500 Overseas Votes in their Specials Total. All of which means: Turnout is even higher than the 76.4% figure I originally calculated. It now stands at 77%.  The general point, though, still stands - 2014 turnout is higher than 2011, lower than 2008. The greater number of Specials also means I'll need to update my estimates (below) of the raw number of votes that various Parties gained or lost.]

Based on the way the Special Votes fell in recent Elections, we might expect:

- the Nats' Final Result to be about 0.5-0.7 points down, so perhaps around 47.5% or thereabouts

- Labour to be up about 0.4 points, so around 25%

- The Greens up 0.2-0.4 points, so 10.3% or 10.4%

- NZF very slightly down 0.1 or 0.2 - to 8.7%

- Others: slight lift in Maori Party vote, but ACT, UF and IMP should receive pretty much the same percentage as Election Night.

That assumes, of course, that the Specials will fall the same way as they did in the last 3 elections.

National's Election Night Result

2011 47.99%

2014 48.06%

National's Final Vote should comprise:

 - Around 36% of Enrolled Voters 

 - Around 33% of Eligible Voters 


I think TVNZ's Election Night Special got turnout wrong. They suggested:
- 2014: 67.7
- 2011: 74
- 2008: 79
And argued that this was a terrible figure.

But I suspect they were forgetting about the Specials. By my calculations, Turnout is about 76.4% - so half-way between 2008 and 2011.

A Few Quick Calculations:

Suggest that, if my guesses on the Final Vote are correct, then:

- National would have gained around 65,000 more votes than in 2011

- Labour would have lost around 25,000

- The Greens would have lost around 3,000

- NZ First would have gained around 58,000

While I'm no fan of Colin Craig's Conservatives:

I have to say that, once again, we're dealing with an absurdity that the current
Government should have resolved...

Cons:  86,616 votes (Election Night) (probably close to 95,000 in Final Result)
= No Seats

Maori Party:  27,074 = Represented in Parliament

ACT:  14,510 = Represented in Parliament

UF:  4,533 = Represented in Parliament